Member Info for Forensic505

All good points, of course.

In my 10.1p fair value estimate, I have been at pains to leave only upside surprise on the table.

It puts the current share price of 6p into some perspective I hope.

I think it’s now possible to make an educated and rational estimate of where the MRE is likely to come out at, in terms of the fair value of the share price of SML.

1. Simply updating the old, historic tungsten price per tonne ($650), used in the original Zeus fair value calculation of the SML share price of 4.8p, for the actual avg 15 month price per tonne ($1,050) gets you to a revised fair value share price of 7.75p (1050/650 x 4.8p).

2. The other material element is the dramatically higher recovery rate due to the quality of the tungsten. Thanks to the RNS on Friday last week, we now have a number for that: 19%. That therefore re-rates the 7.75p to 9.2p.

3. More difficult is to factor in is (a) the significantly higher volumes of tungsten identified by the recent drilling programme; (b) the importance of upgrading the quality of the data from “implied” to “identified”. (c) the values of the tin by product etc. Therefore if we very conservatively apply a factor of just 10% to cover those aspects, we get to a revised conservative fair value of SML’s share price of 10.1p

I think that leaves an awful lot of upside headroom but I am basing my trading on a very conservative fair value of 10.1p per share.

The Zeus and SP Angel research will provide shareholders with far greater detail from the finalised data and that should be available on Thursday this week.

My view is that their values of SML’s share price will therefore be materially in excess of 10.1p per share (revised up from Zeus’ previous estimates of 4.8p and back in December 1.9p, both of which proved highly accurate in predicting where the SML price traded to).

This is purely my own Forensic analysis. As ever, DYOR.

Very interesting posts over the weekend. Thank you all.

My conclusion: we are sat in the bare foothills of where this share is going to go, very rapidly.

The most important comment from the RNS on Friday was their use of the word: “transformational”.

That was used in relation to the 15 month tungsten price. That is a fact. Not a “potential positive variable”.

When the ACTUAL 15 month avg tungsten price gets fed into the MRE that is going to be published in the next 7 trading days, I believe that the roof is going to be completely blown off SML’s share price.

And that is why Zeus very tellingly publicly pulled their 4.8p fair value of SML shares on Friday. A highly unusual action to take by a UK investment bank.

Zeus know, that once the MRE is published, their 4.8p will be so embarrassingly small that they could be accused of misleading the market (although they obviously were not) by keeping 4.8p as their “live” fair value statement. It potentially exposed them to (vexatious) litigation.

Tomorrow morning, I will be aggressively adding to an already highly significant six figure personal investment position.

As Warren Buffett famously said: “diversification is for people who don’t know what they are doing”.

As ever, DYOR.

Yes please @Happyzone

Steven York The very well respected early stage minerals investor I believe I added it to his position in recent weeks here. I won’t change my position unless he does!

It’s an interesting conundrum.

The Chairman, Paul Atherely, has categorically stated on several occasions that the financing will be secured by the end of Q1 2026. Other than the financing package, everything else seems to be fully lined up (even including the highly material binding offtake agreement with Glencore).

While the marginal terms of the debt and equity financing package may be effected by the very recent events in Persia, I cannot see that impacts the long term valuation proposition here. In fact, many aspects of the Iran war serve to emphasise why it is absolutely vital for the UK to have much greater control in the key areas of access to critical minerals (eg lithium processing, hence the importance of Alkemy ) and direct access to energy sources (which spotlights the renewable energy sourcing of the Alkemy business).

I am therefore as confident as Mr Atherely, that the financing package will be announced in the next 10 days (which brings us to the end of Q1 2026).

As long as that package is materially similar to the shape outlined by Paul Atherely before, then prospect of Alkemy becoming a £1 Billion+ company becomes a close reality. That announcement will transform the share price beyond all compare, immediately.

So…your timing will be very interesting Aldi!

My personal view (for what little that is worth): do not try to buy at the very bottom and aim to sell at the very top. That is impossible. And it is also not necessary. Whether you get in at a market capitalisation of £30m, £50m or £60m, makes little bottom line difference when your exit will be at £1 Billion+. I thoroughly believe that is the investment proposition here.

Very best of luck,

Steven

Dobre: you need to use 12 month avg.

That is $1,100.

So double what Zeus used in their last fair value.

So that takes you to 9.6p

Add for quality and volume reported increases

Stay VERY conservative

Equals: 10p

Just my humble opinion

Apologies for the typos. I was dictating my last note. I’m sure you get the drift. Wishing everyone a very peaceful weekend.

Forensic505

The SML share price is just playing wrong now.

Zeus have discontinued their 4.8p fair value assessment of the SML share price.

Obviously they wouldn’t have done that if all they were going to do was revise the 4.8p to 5.5p.

It is now surely blindingly clear that various assessment is going to be it’s a significantly higher level than the 4.8p. Suspect they will hone in at around 10p.

Those who Phil that they have joined the party a little late, quite simply you have not. There is far, far more to come from this. And the news today showing transformational returns from the latest drilling results are simply not reflected in the current share price whatsoever.

Unlucky Adi

Everything should change very soon !!

If there is something we PIs should know then the management and their investment bankers are duty bound to make an announcement.

My only thinking is:

Iran crisis is temporarily stopping expected interest cuts. Therefore debt interest higher and NPVs lower. But that is hardly existential.

Getting out now would be insane.

The new £4.7m investor would not have made such a serious investment yesterday at 3.5p unless it was confident of making somewhere close to a 10x return.

It’s rather blunt but 10x is always the target for investors such as this. But it HAS to be because exiting such a large position is impossible unless there has been a huge increase in market capitalisation.

Extremely good news.

In their update note this morning, Zeus have formally notified the market that they are officially withdrawing their 4.8p fair value per share of SML.

They are now undertaking a full review based on the hugely material positive information that has emerged on SML over the past several months since they set 4.8p as the fair value.

They will publish their new revised fair value once the new MRE has been published. Zeus have confirmed that the MRE is due to be issued by SML on or before 31 March 2026.

Conclusion: the highly material official re-rate is now imminent.

The spread is utterly ridiculous here.

Makes any trading impossible.

Same trouble with HL

@Johnmitchell - many thanks.

I’m delighted to be in good company.

All the best,

Forensic505

As soon as the market stops choking on oil fumes, this company is going to rocket.

The imminent USA dual listing and first USA Government grant give this all the reassurance you need.

Just opened my position at 2.9p. Over the moon !!!

Yes @littlered66 but 4.8p is the old number.

The NEW fair value statements are due within the next 8 business days.

Highly material upgrades expected.

Topped several times yesterday and today.

Overall: £150k position at an avg sp of 4.3p.

A key point:

A sophisticated third party investor, who approached SML on an unsolicited basis, who then invested £4.7m at 3.5p would only have done that on the basis of:

1. An expected return of 7-14x

2. Having spent considerable time talking to management, under NDA

3. Spent considerable time further diligencing via engagement with the SML’s investment banks: Zeus and SP Angel.

Contrary to the blind sheep who willingly through themselves off the cliff, first thing this morning, the significant external investment announced today is a HUGE buy signal for PIs.