Member Info for fogthemogg

"Often hear it called a long term investment, that's because it's a short term investment gone wrong"

Welcome to the FTSE 100, thanks for playing :)

"Did we ever actually sell our Rosneft stake? If not, at what point do we bring it back into the fold?"

That's gone I'm afraid, the proceeds went towards furnishing Putin's new palace.

Mr. Zelenskyy, it's time to deal.

Hi JMT, mostly fair points but the financials are partially derived from production...Your cash flow number assumes that production hasn't fallen again, we'll see in the next RNS. FRES nearly touched 1000p early last year with gold and silver prices 30% lower, the usual suspects were saying it was undervalued and about to fly even back then...I won't be aggressively profit=taking at this level anymore though.

“Do not be surprised to see the impending oil glut becoming a supply concern Q4/Q1 with the market needing Opec's cut barrels at a premium”

Dearest Marky Mark,

Hang on just a minute, are you now finally agreeing with me that there’s an ongoing supply glut, and not a shortage? Or are you just being sarcastic?

Forever yours,

Fog

JMAX has posted >3,000 times on Tullow and think it's a rubbish stock, but also claims to have never been short?

Make it make sense...

Almost as moronic as calling the bottom last summer in mid-600s, and posting >3,000 times on the Tullow board despite thinking it's a rubbish stock...Now that most people have filtered you on there, you start following me around on this board.

It’s not a matter of opinion, the evidence is right there in front of you: PM miners did not lag PM price moves in 2020 and 2021. You clearly didn't trade through that period either, because if you did then you'd remember the miners moving up in tandem with PMs. The leg up in other PM miners this year without a lag is right in front of you too, but there's none so blind as those that will not see

I was the only one who said this would retest March 2020 low of 456p or lower, and the only one who raised the falling production...Even long-term posters here completely missed that and carried on regurgitating “it's about to fly", despite being clueless about the proposed Mexican legislation changes too.

The fact that you even get a recommend for a retort without providing any counter-evidence says it all...But I'd bet my last penny that our resident "expert", who's posted 7,000 times on FRES and still always gets it wrong too loved it...Birds of a feather.

I'm not sure a 412p share price at the end of 2024 driving season, with a divi yield similar to the risk-free rate is a "win-win situation". Still, this is not a bad level to accumulate more at.

ArK87, FRES used to produce 940 koz of gold!

"Looking at the FXPO trades over the last 2-3 weeks, a broker was off-loading (selling) around 9m+ FXPO shares for it's client around the 40p (no less) mark. Lots of support buys around 40p and plenty of sneek in buyers below the 38p-39p range."

Or, they were just playing pass the parcel...

A welcome technical rip in commodities and miners in response to new China stimulus. Question is, does this have legs or will it just revert like all of the other times in the last 18 months...

“May I say the BP board has been one of the more pleasant over some time.”

That’s because the share price hasn’t gone anywhere, there isn’t much to argue about 😂

Typically they do not lag, easy to check the charts rather than just inserting random clichès. Miners (inc. FRES) rapidly moved up in tandem with PM price surges in 2020 and 2021. However, when the extent of cost inflation became clear, they began to diverge. Although by this year HOC had nearly 4x, CEY 2x, AG had nearly 2x from cycle lows. Another $5 and big boy NEM will have doubled from YTD bottom too. That is not a “lag”. FRES underperformance is an outlier in the sector because of the production decline and country risk.

Let's see if this latest round of China stimulus has legs and is deemed big enough by Mr. Market. All the previous ones were then aggressively sold into and the miners went straight back down. Fingers crossed 🤞

Roxi if you loved Anglo at 3,500p then you gotta love it at these levels...

Let's see if this latest round of China stimulus has legs, all the previous ones were aggressively sold into shortly thereafter.

"China has announced a very large stimulus package this morning, which should support demand into 2025."

Problem is, each previous stimulus announcement is then sold into by smart money as it's deemed not big enough. We enjoy these short-term relief rallies which then fade. Let's see if this one has legs!

“I’ve set a sale for 415 ready to buy back at £4“

Gordon Gekko in the house.

Because they used to produce 940 koz at a much lower AISC.

The share price has been left behind by peers because (i) gold production is falling whilst silver production has flatlined (ii) proposed ban on new open pit concessions and Mexico’s increasingly unfavourable political climate.

Given elevated gold and silver prices this year, FRES should have been throwing the kitchen sink at production. However, it appears increasingly likely that the highest ore grades have gone; rather than falling production being attributed to the company holding back. I’d certainly prefer it to be the latter though.

Most global investors look for material future growth. Therefore they ask, where is this growth going to come from? There’s also near zero chance of a takeover due to Peñoles owning 75% and enjoying the benefits of LSE listing. They don’t give a stuff about the other shareholders, as evidenced by the poor comms, failure to address falling production and absence of any buyback programmes.

Having said this, the share price should be higher and if the recent leg up in PMs holds, I’ll remove my sell orders in the 600s. As over the last year or so, any move up to that level was a screaming sell as the volume and buyers dried up.

“Hugely limited SP downside“

It’s funny when people say that because whether you buy at 39p or 390p, your potential loss is still 100%.

If anything, as we go down it becomes even riskier as penny drops are greater % mark to market losses.

You won’t catch me stopping out here though…This was always a Lambo or food stamps stock.

“I can see fear is now clearly effecting some. This is the classic scenario many investor gurus warn us about…..selling in the dip….as opposed to seeing this as a buying opportunity.”

Ramping crew have been peddling the same old rubbish for 3 years on the trot now. If only people had listened to the so-called “fear” at 450p…Because that was when the insiders were selling, whilst dozens of aliases on here were screaming “crazy undervalued” and “opportunity of a lifetime”.

Forget the divi yield bait, HBR has only ever been a trading stock.

“When the world wakes up and discovers there is a shortage”

Doesn’t matter how many times you tell yourself that at night, it won’t change the fact that there’s an oil supply glut, not a shortage. Do the research and stop regurgitating AI-generated articles on oilprice.com, or some nonsense an OPEC figurehead said.

“I don't think finance costs are the reason the SP is so weak.”

The share price is weak because there are so few buyers, it really is as simple as that. Even for the minority of institutional investors and big speculators that remain bullish on oil, BP remains an extremely unappealing company. Even when oil surged >$100 in 2022, BP couldn’t break 500p and spent most of the year nailed below 450p.