Member Info for fogthemogg

Nitro, you’re in denial or have an agenda…

This is the third consecutive year of you ramping Harbour and telling everyone how: this is the bottom and that it’s about to fly, or how undervalued it is etc.

How many more times?

The raw economic data showing a global industrial slowdown is clear. The record high US production, tepid global demand and China stockpiling data is also self-evident.

But some just can’t bring themselves to admit the very obvious oil supply glut, and keep crying “paper market manipulation”. Their evidence? None provided. Their source? OPEC spokesmen…

Surprised people are still drinking the Saudi Kool-Aid about “tight oil supply” and “paper market manipulation”. It’s been regurgitated ad nauseam on here and in mainstream financial news media. Saudi have been outplayed by the US and they’ve lost control of OPEC.

The writing was on the wall when Saudi went alone with production cuts because other OPEC members refused. Saudi gloating during the summer of 2022 when the oil price surged was also foolish and short-sighted. US saw red, started dumping SPR and told domestic shale oil to “drill baby, drill”. This drove record US production which more than offset tepid global demand.

Now all of these ridiculous Saudi vanity projects and desert cities will inevitably be “put on hold”. Which if the UAE is anything to go by, are then never finished. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch…

Hi Aether, it's the only way to play most of the FTSE I'm afraid...Call me old fashioned, but investments are supposed to increase in value, preferably materially, over the long-term.

As retail we're unlikely to catch the bottoms or sell the tops. But if you follow a small number of names you'll get the gist of it after a while, whether that's TA astrology or just gut instinct.

Also, US peers were not "taking a beating too", did you just make that up for comfort?

Exxon and Chevron closed flat, Conoco and Occidental were down just 40bps despite WTI and Brent cratering even further after London close.

*2008 IPO price :)

jmax you also used to say fres tracks silver, which it hasn't for years, and that the 600s were the bottom last year...you just insert random market clichés as and when you think it's relevant. you're not alone in that though.

the miners don't "always" lag pm prices at all, the gold and silver price is just one of many moving parts which drive a mining company's share price.

hochschild has more than 3x from the cycle lows, centamin has nearly 2x from cycle lows. even first majestic, which keeps diluting shareholders and never seems to turn a profit, had 2x from cycle lows by april.

for the umpteenth time, fresnillo share price ****show is company-specific. namely falling production and a proposed ban on new open pit concessions in mexico, where all fresnillo's assets are. it is not the next nvidia or roll-royce, it is simply a trading stock currently priced 20p above the ipo level back in 2011.

"more than happy with the current sp"

hi pursestrings, i'd dread to think what the rest of your portfolio is like then...risk-free rate is similar yield, but without the capital loss and the excruciating pain of watching bp share price continually slide.

hi mark, what's with the daily one man show of endlessly pumping bp and the oil price? whilst your tenacity and optimism is somewhat admirable, it's just looking like hopium now buddy and not grounded in any economic reality. china oil demand is weakening, china stockpiles are increasing, brent and wti are clinging to $73 and $76 respectively despite it being the driving season. middle east war premium has gone too, so it appears that iran suddenly going ape**** is all you've got in the bull case.

"These 'demand concerns' seem to be wheeled out whenvever the paper trading brigade want the oil price lower"

The demand concerns are real, take a look at China imports and stockpiles.

Fund managers are not going to sell Nvidia and Rolls Royce to buy a niche PM miner, whose highlights are falling production and having all their assets in a country which could be about to ban new open pit concessions.

Stuart, there are simply no buyers and haven't been in large enough numbers for well over a year.

Share price has not strongly correlated with PMs for years. I'm unsure why people comment like this is a new development? The writing was on the wall a long time ago.

@Ark87. Sure, the increased gold price counts for "something". But if gold production has fallen c40% and costs have doubled, then it's offsetting the gains from higher prices.

@Aether. You're a lazy bum but here's the silver production :)

2017: 59 moz

2018: 62 moz

2019: 55 moz

2020 & 2021: 53 moz

2022: 54 moz

2023: 56 moz

2024: 55-62 moz forecasted (I'd err on the lower side for obvious reasons)

Gold production is cratering, silver production is stagnant but costs have spiraled and the mining regulatory environment has become more hostile.

If PM prices were low then there's a chance Fresnillo might have been holding back production. But it's clear that the best ore grades have gone, and a proposed ban on new open-pit mines wouldn't be helpful.

To me, the next month or so is key. Fresnillo NEEDS to play catch up fast (starting next week), otherwise with the next PM pullback (as always happens) it's only going south.

I've noticed a big volume spike in the last few sessions, 4.2m yesterday and 1.7m on Thursday from memory, reported after hours. It could just be institutional reshuffling for index relegation/promotion, or it's a big fish who wants a slice which might turn the tide.

Hi Darien, gold production:

2018: 923 koz

2019: 876 koz

2020: 770 koz

"

2024: 580 - 630 koz forecast

The best grades have gone and it's a company in decline, not an investment. Just trade it.

+/-3% daily move in silver is a) quite common because it's a small market and b) price often reverses quickly. Again it did nothing for FRES yesterday which closed flat.

Silver is +6% since Black Monday (August 5th), yet FRES has barely budged.

Yes Minecheck, the increasingly hostile mining environment in Mexico is a big discount factor here too.

I haven't seen a single comment on here which cheers on Putin, can you point to one recently?

In yours and Evan's upside down world, anyone who isn't calling Putin silly names and saying "Slava Ukraini" every day must be pro-Kremlin...We're not, we just don't regurgitate war propaganda because a) we weren't born yesterday and b) it's a stock forum.

Malu, MSCI Index deletion drives forced selling by institutions but can't see HBR yet?

Bonker, what happened to your silver squeeze? Is it postponed again until next year 🤔

Are you sure you're not a cheerleader Troajan? 😂

Presumably you're Ukrainian?

"At this rate HBR is a sitting duck for a venture capital buyout"

Yeeeah, but you were all saying that at 400p back in 2022...Third year running peddling that narrative now.

Remember when despite Russia's destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, FXPO went from 103p to 175p during the winter of 2022/2023? Good times...