focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Delays. I also think GGP has a lofty valuation at this stage.
I think this will drift to 4p.
Back in March, I looked at SED when it was 20p. I hovered above the buy button, but then did an extra review of recent results. It was obvious to me that they needed a lot of cash and that put me off.
That proved to be a terrible call because they shot up to 60p, but it was the right principle.
I couldn't have slept knowing I'd taken a bit of a blind gamble.
I missed an opportunity, but I also feel the BoD missed an opportunity by failing to address the obvious funding issues at a discount to 60p.
Now SED are looking at funding at a discount to 20p and the concerns I had back in March are finally coming home to roost.
Really poor management.
There's no credible investment case here until the funding issue has been resolved.
The financial health of this company is awful, so I think they could struggle to raise funds for much longer.
The higher the risk, the greater the discount has to be.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a placing at 15p forward sold into the market.
The US is collapsing and Eurasian economies are linking up with Russia to preserve their wealth. In Senegal there have been massive pro-Russian demonstrations. British and French embassies rushing to evacuate Africa as the people are booting them out.
Make no mistake about this, global wealth is being redistributed like never before.
The Ukraine war is a smokescreen as sad as it is that huge numbers of mostly Ukrainians are being killed.
This is really about wealth and people in the UK feel virtuous for supporting Ukraine and the environment.
In reality we're all just getting much poorer, Ukraine is being totally destroyed very methodically, which takes time and the environmental impact is just shifting away from us to other countries gladly benefiting from a standard of living the west have deprived them of for centuries.
It's truly remarkable!
Global boiling, slava Ukraine, it's a great and very tragic deception, but I'm glad for those poor nations getting richer from the stupidity of British people.
You should be banned from LSE.
The one-off licensing fee from Samsung has skewed revenue upwards hence the £5m+, I forgot about that, thanks all.
This makes it more tricky to value the company and applying a P/E would be inaccurate, although the company advised that the ramp up of sensing should match this revenue for the next year. We shall see!
For now, this remains a very safe but boring investment with the risk that the market could value it lower based on uncertainty. Like I said, surely not lower than 10p, that would be silly. I consider that the floor because around £30m is proven cash and assets and obviously IP is worth something more.
Thanks NGR. If Nanoco becomes a significant commercial producer in sensing applications, I'll concede that an early settlement may have been sensible. It remains a big IF though.
That was a very professional update, which makes me wonder if the board have been reading this forum!
Nanoco are now in a much stronger position than ever before and it seems as though they are actually finally on the brink of commercialization. We've seen contracts come and go before though.
Valuing the business is obviously tricky because a lot is still unclear.
What's clear is the business is in a strong position and here to stay.
The risk remains that the market could value Nanoco lower based on cash and the production site because IP value remains very unclear. Somewhere around 10p is probably the worst case scenario bottom.
Absolutely should have gone to court across multiple countries, then entered negotiations after the initial damages verdict, likely in the billions. Nanoco could then accept £1bn and we'd all be happy.
Unfortunately, they were so eager to settle for the preservation of business that we still haven't seen anything from. It's a shambles.
PS I hadn't properly read the recent trading statements when I posted my comment about Nanoco's valuation on 7th September. "try sensibly valuing Nanoco at more than £60m with what's left on the books." I can actually!
Hello everyone,
just popping in.
Nanoco are set to return capital at 10-12p per share.
I hope this offers some compensation for long-suffering shareholders.
They will retain £20m + £8m currently in cash.
+£10m for the value of runcorn
£38m + the rest of the business generate £5.6m revenue.
Apply a P/E ratio of 10 to that maybe, some say slightly higher or lower.
That would give Nanoco a value of £94m without consideration for IP.
The value of IP really comes down to what it enables a third-party to do.
Obviously, we have lots more IP than QD vision, which sold for $70m in 2016, but it's not as binary as applying a multiplier to that. You can have 1000 patents on a wooden spoon. (A terrible analogy :D)
The P/E ratio part of this valuation is a guesstimate, but with the more robust revenues and IP, it seems unfair to value Nanoco at less than £100m in my opinion.
For the record, I was pleasantly surprised by the revenue and cash figures.
Buy, target 30p
£5M+ Net debt
£8m operating loss
Really squeezed margins.
The prospects are that this company will continue to make loss after loss because there isn't the scope in the market to do much on pricing.
This was a lucrative market from 2010 - 2020, but that era is over with centralized cloud tech and limited appetite for buying PSTN telephony. You can sell it, but it has to be cheap and then you end up where Loop and most companies in the market are with really squeezed margins.
The answer is a low margin high volume business with tight cost control.
You can squeeze a 10-15% margin if you're really careful.
There are some commercial contracts that can be realised through cloud add-on development, but that market is getting increasingly saturated.
Game over for loop at this point.
Yh but everyone is waiting to see how bad the dilution is.
It will be interesting to see how long that goes on for and how much of the $16bn they retain.
On the face of it, it suggests the Nano board were hasty as many of us suspect, but this could get very long-winded and they might bail later down the line, settling for a massive reduction after massively inflated costs.
You don't know how large the Asian chemical company is, that's pure speculation
The capital return to investors is a sign that the board have run out of road. Its a lack of ambition. They have no vision so just went for a small compensation package to shareholders.
My gut feeling is Nanoco are finished.
As for valuation with what's left on the books, try sensibly valuing the business at more than £60m. I can't.
No, this is really bizarre, you normally see an indication somewhere. In this case, absolutely nothing! It's suspicious.
I think Shoei could have bid for Nanoco Ddubya, that was my first thought.
All pointless speculation I guess.
As for Nanoco, there's nothing to look forward to so I think we're all clutching at straws
The company has no tangible prospects.
Its low valuation reflects this.
Jam tomorrow. The audacity of the board to state the company is in the best position it has ever been in is incredible.
Sure they've never had so much cash, but they used to have a really exciting emerging market that they let samsung have for next to nothing. Absolutely dire.
This company will do nothing until the clowns in charge are gone.
A missed opportunity.
Its the misleading claims of the Nanoco board that have cost investors the most money. Get them out.
BC nothing is more boring & tiresome than your post, which tries to silence discussion. If you don't like discussion, take a break from the forum.
Discussions are generally repetitive to a varying degree. It's just you don't like this one because of your opinions.
Wicky - you and I have a very different interpretation of foolishness. Or perhaps those supporting the board fit the definition of mad: trying the same thing again, expecting different results.
Get them out!