RE: US embassy visit Songwe6 Jun 2025 17:29
Daniel Mamadou on LinkedIn.
(Supply Chain Advisor for the Mkango NASDAQ Listing)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/danielmamadou_rareearths-ndpr-supplychains-activity-7336366193097756672-mbjl?rcm=ACoAADwwVbYBydBP7dz1Yo5clmEStb2paNQ71as
How the West Suddenly Discovered China’s Dominance in Critical Minerals:
A Tragicomedy in 3 Acts.
As Europe and USA leaders run from press room to factory floor, one might be forgiven for asking: Didn’t your own experts warn you about this a decade ago?
Act 1 Let’s rewind.
Back in the meeting rooms of Brussels in 2010, the European Commission released a sober document (MEMO/10/263) explaining that rare earths, antimony and gallium were subject to dangerously high supply risk. Not only were they almost entirely sourced from China, but they also had abysmal recycling rates and poor substitutability. Their own graph showed China’s grip clearly.
Meanwhile, the Americans weren’t sleeping either. In 2010, the U.S. DOE Critical Materials Strategy document warned (shock horror!) that supply chains for rare earths were dangerously concentrated in China. The report practically screamed, “Hey, we’re vulnerable!”
Act 2 So, what happened?
The EU issued... recommendations. Very thoughtful ones, too. Explore more. Recycle more. Promote transparency. Maybe even talk to developing countries nicely.
The U.S. focused on research programs, held a few hearings, and redefined “strategic autonomy” as a thought experiment.
You’d think by now that the West would have applied critical thinking to Erich Zimmermann’s gospel: “Resources are not; they become.”
Unfortunately, this intellectually comforting mantra, reinforced by Thomas R. DeGregori in his academic piece, gave everyone in policy circles permission to believe that human ingenuity would always win and that we could think our way out of geology.
Meanwhile, Beijing decided not to theorize. It acted. It built the midstream, processed the ores, mastered separation. While Western countries sang kumbaya over environmental impact statements and NIMBY protests, China permitted, invested, extracted, refined, and controlled. On their own terms.
Act 3 Fast-forward to 2025.
The EU’s car industry is now teetering and Ford has halted SUV production. The rare earth magnet shortage is biting, and European Commissioner Šefčovič is now begging China to loosen export curbs. China’s responds with bureaucratic empathy, and a hint of diplomatic patience: “We’ll clarify the data,” they say politely.
Meanwhile, the West is scrambling with projects around the world. Let’s hope they permit a mine this decade. Because if we’re lucky, and we stop whining and start acting, maybe by 2045 we’ll have a functioning rare earth supply chain. That probably includes ten more years of well-meaning policy memos, five years of ESG consultations, and another five of angry people with signs saying “No mine here.”
The End
So no, Chi