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I am talking about the share price fall from Friday to now , to news that was fully expected. Was there anything unexpected in the results . And ,yes,I agree it has been short on delivery

Exactly ,nothing unexpected here. Write off , wrestle down for the 3 months and EG investment paid for . Market as usual overreacts as do certain parties . It still as it was a bet on EG (next 3 months ) and ireland(6 months) . If both fail , then it’s time to panic and say goodbye to management.

There is a post below from today’s prd chat from a BikkyRayVal that touches on this question. I don’t have enough knowledge of geology to comment on its validity . Would be interested what others with more knowledge have to think ?

Here is the post

“Morning donal,

Just following up on your post from @12.04 yesterday about whether a deal may be done for EOG’s Irish assets too.

Keith posted a comparison of Corrib South and Inishkea West on 2nd March this year, highlighting the difference between the two companies’ prospects:

“PRD has an important advantage over Europa. Corrib South is a direct continuation of the Corrib Triassic Sherwood sandstone reservoir, both prospects are within the same 4-way dip closure. I would expect Vermilion [or CPPIB] to be pretty confident that they know the geology. Although Inishkea has the same potential reservoir, it is separated from Corrib & Corrib South, and is fault-bounded. Inversion during the Cretaceous has resulted in removal of at least 1km of strata from above the prospect together with mobility of the Triassic salt layer, leading to speculation that the seal may be poor. Corrib South retains full thickness of overburden.”

As we know, PRD had an “unsolicited approach in relation to Corrib South” [Interims 19/9/23] which we now know has resulted in a farm-in proposal that can “conclude immediately upon award of a successor authorisation” [Interims 25/9/24], likely from CPPIB / Nephin.

In contrast, during his presentation last month, Will Holland stated that although they’d had some interest in their Irish prospects, no farm-in deal had been struck and, indeed, was unlikely until at least after the general election, if at all:

https://youtu.be/c3cGKdWjNfI?si=n010JOdcTAG4_I9z

“We’ve been trying to farm this out for some time now [Keith suggested from at least early 2019]. We have interest, we’re waiting for offers… The feedback we’re getting from interested parties is that they’d like to see the results of the [general] election before they continue. So let’s see, this a work in progress.” [from 10m10s]

To me, he really didn’t sound that confident of a deal being struck. It may happen, of course, but what’s clear from Keith’s analysis and the fact that we already have a farm-in agreed and just waiting to be signed, is that Corrib South is a far superior prospect and, as such, Predator is clearly in pole position to benefit from a change in government policy following the upcoming election.

“us” not “you”

I think we need to be aware of idiots like you . Do you want to enlighten you with your knowledge of the situation in Ireland .

What a stupid comment . It does not matter where the “strike” comes from . Share prices don’t distinguish between locations.

Donaldb, I’ve just read with great interest your recent adventures. Your initiative and energy was rightly rewarded by being able to repurchase most of your holdings at a lower price. Fair play . Hopefully you might have to go on a trip to EG very soon.

I imagine the results will be out on Monday with the write down , hence the large late sell off today.

In relation to previous question, I could see the share hitting 2p on news of a farm in ( and the Greens out of government). Remember we hit 1.7p when Christian W Ahlefeldt-Laurvig upped his stake about 18 months or so ago .

I see PRD shares are on the slide,so much for the wild talk of them having the money to pay for the drill themselves.

I am not bashing the share but a possible explanation for its fall yesterday . I don’t know who are the worst - the totally negative ones or the total positive ones!!

I am supposing somebody got glance at annual report results ,saw the write down for senerity and had panicked !

Friday Nov 29th a near certainty now .

You would be very difficult for the Irish government to turn down EOG if it gave the go ahead to PRD, as long as it was properly funded ( net tangible assets requirement etc) .also I think Ireland will probably need both fields as the transition to renewable is maybe a 20-30 year project . Finally , the government might now prefer natural gas to fractured gas from a Shannon LNG

Agree. I am really surprised that more investors don’t see the great value here at this price . Great potential upside with two possible farm-outs and as importantly the downside is protected by the revenue from wressle which itself has more revenue potential.

Interesting development today which could make it more difficult for government to refuse EOG and predator licence to drill. Maybe Possible reason for today purchases??

Main quotes from Irish times story ( behind paywall)

A High Court judge has overturned a refusal of permission for the proposed Shannon LNG gas terminal in Co Kerry.In a judgment on Monday, Mr Justice Richard Humphreys quashed An Bord Pleanála’s decision and said he proposed to order the board to reconsider the planning application in line with his findings.

——He found the board failed to have regard to the 2023 national risk assessment, which recognised a lack of diversity of supply sources and storage “is a risk for security of supply”. That policy, adopted after the board inspector’s report on the planning application and immediately before the board’s decision, was in principle capable of being assessed as giving additional and recent policy support to the application, he said.

—The judge observed it appeared desirable to have “an actual conclusion” to the review of energy security and gas supply policy, ongoing for some 2½ years.The State had tried to attribute the delay to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but that “should be a reason to speed it up

-Fianna Fáil Ireland South MEP Billy Kelleher described it as “a win for common sense and for energy security in Ireland”.

“Renewables will, of course, provide the vast majority of our energy supply into the future, but we need back-ups for when the wind doesn’t blow or when the sun doesn’t shine.”

The stars seem to be aligning at last . Was this the reason for today’s purchases.

What a Clown,ever heard of moore’s law . In the AI world , July is ancient history. Back to your abacus!!

The point is there is no new news. The collaboration between forcepoint and getvisibility was announced at the beginning of July . Lots of shares trade for years below their NAV. This share needs news on IR ipo to close that gap as the £1 1/2 m refinancing required by Dec is hanging over this potential winning share.

It would be great if Boldy ‘s appointment as non-executive chairman of Predator oil was a catalyst for some consolidation in the sector.

This may be fantasy but I would love to see the amalgamation of EOG , Predator and Lansdowne together. Certainly in terms of Ireland it makes sense . If the government was again to refuse either of these their licences ( especially if the bids were well funded )then the Lansdowne case would be much more stronger and the amalgamated entity would have a possible £100m+ to cover its downside.

They would also be in a more stronger position when negotiating with vermilion or any other possible partner . Also they each bring others things to the table, Morocco and EG from Eog side . Not to mention ,economies of scale . —one can always dream !!

A merger with Lansdowne would be a great way for predator to hedge their bets in relation to their license application in Corrib south and would also give them some extra leverage .

Interesting to note that last opinion poll put the greens on 1 seat .

Yep, I agree ,we need a real positive result . For me , I am going to give it until of year and then re access it . That should enough time to farm out eg and a new Irish government should be in power by then ,hopefully without the greens .