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It looks like energy will not be moving to dept of enterprise but staying within dept of environment and transport . Pity . So All eyes on who will be the new minister but equally the minister of states for this dept . Sean Canney would be a nice pick .

There is a growing speculation that energy will be put into the dept of enterprise .The new ministry will be kept by Fine Gael and the speculation is that the new minister will be Helen McEntee, the current justice minister.

She has never ,as far as I can see, expressed any strong view on the environment .

As a bit of fun,asked ChatGPT to estimate share price if EOG was successful with both fields in Ireland and EG .

To estimate Europa Oil & Gas’s share price if it were successful with both wells (Inishkea in Ireland and the EG-08 block in Equatorial Guinea), let’s break this into steps:

1. Combined Net Profit Estimate

Ireland (Inishkea)

• Estimated net profit: €1.17 billion (assuming 33% chance of success and 40% interest after farm-out).

Equatorial Guinea (EG-08 block)

• Unrisked prospective resources: 2.1 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe).

• Estimated net profit: €2.94 billion (assuming 20% profit margin and full success).

Total Net Profit

• €1.17 billion (Ireland) + €2.94 billion (Equatorial Guinea) = €4.11 billion total net profit.

2. Market Capitalization Based on Net Profit

Applying Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios

• Low-end P/E (5x): €4.11 billion × 5 = €20.55 billion market cap.

• High-end P/E (10x): €4.11 billion × 10 = €41.1 billion market cap.

3. Share Price Calculation

• Outstanding shares: 707 million.

• Share price = Market cap ÷ Outstanding shares.

At 5x P/E

• €20.55 billion ÷ 707 million = €29.06 per share.

At 10x P/E

• €41.1 billion ÷ 707 million = €58.12 per share.

4. Adjustments for Risk

• The Inishkea prospect has a 33% chance of success; EG-08 in Equatorial Guinea may have similar geological risks. If you account for these risks, you could discount the potential value proportionally.

Risk-Adjusted Estimate (50% success probability overall):

• Total net profit: €4.11 billion × 50% = €2.06 billion.

• Adjusted market caps:

• 5x P/E: €10.3 billion, or €14.57 per share.

• 10x P/E: €20.6 billion, or €29.14 per share.

5. Summary of Share Price Estimates

Scenario Share Price (€)

High P/E, full success (10x) €58.12

Low P/E, full success (5x) €29.06

Risk-adjusted, high P/E (10x) €29.14

Risk-adjusted, low P/E (5x) €14.57

Conclusion

If Europa Oil & Gas is successful with both projects, its share price could theoretically rise significantly, ranging from €14.57 to €58.12 per share, depending on the P/E ratio and risk adjustments. However, actual market reactions would also depend on investor confidence, broader market conditions, and operational execution.

Interesting late mark up on the price to 1p near close of business by the mm’s

The election of Veronica Murphy as ceann comhairle( speaker of the house) removes any doubt it will be a ff/fg/ regional independents gov. The main political impediment has now removed. No excuses left for the board .

Hi Donalb, unless my eyes are deceiving me, none of those in the picture are members of the regional independents group . They are mainly independent Ireland and the Healy rays.

Interesting to note .

One of the leaders of this group of independents is Sean Canney , who is tipped to get a junior ministry. He is TD for Galway east ( corrib off the Galway coast)

To give you an indication of his views .

In 2018 when he was a FG junior minister ,

he dismissed a Bill which aims to stop the issuing of any new licences for the exploration of fossil fuels.

Quote from his speech

So the question is – how does Ireland meet its demand for fossil fuels as we transition to a low-carbon energy system – do we solely rely on imports or seek to source them ourselves?

Canney said discovery and development of Ireland’s offshore oil and gas resources “has the potential to deliver much-needed energy security. In addition, offshore discovery and development has the potential to be a very significant economic driver for Ireland”.

They don’t have policies on anything apart from getting goodies for their constituencies and cementing their seats . Nearly all former FF and FG from rural communities . Put it this way , the greens detest them.

We have never had a greater opportunity politically to progress this as it’s now or never. Let’s hope initial talks are already underway between vermilion and WH as the licences expires in 2026.

Agree with serif on this one . They saw proxy vote going against them and reached out to major shareholder,who had his price . But should be a good thing to have a major shareholder on the board as long as he does not go native.

A FF/FG/ technical independents ( not independents Ireland) was the odds on favourite since end of polling . The other talks were always a charade. The only talk now is who is getting what. The next big question is who will get the environmental /energy ministry. Whoever it is ,wont be as bad as Ryan .

Ridiculous spread of nearly 25% .

Often done by Mm to disguise buys/sells or they want to keep their stock . Can’t believe its profit taking as the margin would be wafer thin.

Nor can I understand the logic of people selling now with the political impediment to inishkea removed and EG looking promising.0f course , always possibility of bad news ,but if so,from where I cannot fathom.

I suppose I can take it from the lack of comments that it was another pointless presentation .

Which I presume is yourself

Having said that , a massive 2m buy just in

Welcome back Iszar , I am surprised there is not more large buys, maybe in afternoon after the presentation.

The market size for this share is 200,000( about £2k of shares). These transactions the MM must show immediately but anything above the NMS , they don’t have to notify straightaway .

Yes,Gerry I agree with your sentiment about putting them under pressure.

Now that the political obstacle has been virtually eliminated, they can’t hide behind that excuse anymore . They need to deliver now or goodbye .

Are we here to make money or settle old scores. It would be absolute madness to get rid of him now with his connections in Nephin energy etc especially just now as the political environment has changed in our favour . Of course, if they don’t deliver on this farmin within a few months , they should both be toast But not now .

With greens wiped out and independent Ireland in with a great chance of winning 6 seats, the political system changing rapidly in our favour . Either Ff/FG with “ reliable independents” or Ff/fg/independent Ireland .

Independent Ireland ,a pro exploration party will definitely get 3 seats but now in with a great chance for 2 more seats … with 5 seats , a great chance they could be part of a future coalition government.

With even the Green leader struggling to keep his seat , I think we can now safely say the Greens are toast . Many even predicting they could lose all 12 seats .

But we can’t rule out a FF/FG/labour and independent Ireland coalition