Member Info for Flombo10

Or just one seller ?

The absolute power mess caused by Ryan is getting worst.

Article below from business post.

Also I notice our persistent seller is still on duty , dampening any possible price increases and keeping the price down. Draw your own conclusions.

“Blackout prevention plan in jeopardy as proposed gas plants face ‘considerable challenges’

An emergency state programme to purchase enough new gas power plants to prevent electricity blackouts is at risk of non-delivery, the Business Post has learnt.

A number of the power projects are now in jeopardy, with the rest expected to be delayed beyond their delivery date, according to internal government documents.

The Business Post understands of the 2.5 gigawatts (GW) worth of gas plant capacity that has been contracted to be built to prevent blackouts, only 1.6GW will be delivered by 2028.

This suggests several large gas plants are at risk of non-delivery. The biggest shortfalls are expected to occur this year and in 2027.

In 2021, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU), Ireland’s energy regulator, launched a security of supply programme to import temporary emergency power generators as a stopgap, and sign contracts for new permanent gas plants to be built by 2028.

It followed a series of reports in the Business Post warning of looming blackouts due to electricity shortages.

https://www.businesspost.ie/article/blackout-prevention-plan-in-jeopardy-as-proposed-gas-plants-face-considerable-challenges/

Yes, you would imagine that they would want to extend its life and PRD might force them to reveal their hand in the next few weeks.

I can see what you are saying , Serif, but I think because of Predators financial situation , they don’t want to be left with a license which will incur annual fees and have work commitments that could run to millions like 3d survey etc.

It seems they’re putting a gun to Vermilion‘s head -if you want this license , if you want to drill , you need to come to the table in a BACK to BACK deal Now or we will not accept the successor licence . And I don’t think PDR can afford to hold the licence ( and its commitments) and it’s not as if they can just flip the licence .

Also, I think it’s cleared now from the Irish government’s positions on things like LNG etc that as long as you follow the legal obligations and procedures, there’s not going be much opposition from them. I think it’s the discussions with Vermillion that are now the key . Have they started , have they not .

This is from PRD RNS today .

“In Ireland the regulatory financial and technical criteria necessary to support the award of the Corrib South successor authorisation were satisfied. It remains the Company's firm intention only to accept the successor authorisation as part of a back-to-back farm-in transaction already proposed by a Corrib gas field stakeholder.”

End of quote

As the criteria were satisfied a decision on this should be imminent.

So it seems on my reading ,that Predator would only accept the license if there is a simultaneous farm-in

agreement with Vermilion i.e. “back to back” .

This allow implies they are talking to Vermillion.

So Vermilion will have to show their hand very soon. But it also seems to suggest from Predator’s point of view -there is only one show in town for a farmin partner and that Vermilion, it’s them or nobody .

If Vermilion say NO to Predator , what chance therefore of doing deal with EOG? and what would it do to EOG immediate share price . Does management at eog have a plan /statement to deal with this .

If Vermilion say Yes to a back to back deal , it should give initial boost to EOG share price but pressure will grow on EOG to reveal their situation and their existing/potential relationship with Vermilion .

What do others think?

Yes,both eog and prd licences are safe

That is true , but from minister’s recent interviews, it’s highly unlikely they will lift this ban .

To be accurate., no new licences

Unfortunately the energy security policy recently issued by the dept recommended against this option but stressed that existing licenses will be honoured .

Another report on what would happen if gas supplies cut off . This time from the Irish times . Below is the interesting part.

Surly we are now at a stage where not only should the government covertly support drilling at inishkea but actually give some financial support and incentives for it .

Quote .

“Next, it said, would be heavy corporate gas users. “In this scenario, Corrib, which supplies around 20 per cent of national gas supplies, is used to service ‘protected’ customers, which includes approximately 690,000 households that are gas users,” the presentation set out.“Corrib supplies would also be used to maintain gas supplies to small business/light commercial business.

Next, it said, would be heavy corporate gas users. “In this scenario, Corrib, which supplies around 20 per cent of national gas supplies, is used to service ‘protected’ customers, which includes approximately 690,000 households that are gas users,” the presentation set out.“Corrib supplies would also be used to maintain gas supplies to small business/light commercial business.”

For larger gas users, comprising about 300 sites, 50 have a protected status that would allow for maintained gas supply, including hospitals, healthcare facilities, prisons, various Government locations and the oil refinery.The remaining 250 sites would be cut off.

Thanks for link,Donaldb.

It is going to be make or break in the next few months. The market cap is basically just the value of wressle and is giving no value to our exploration licenses.

At $65 oil price and 100 bopd with a 40% net cash flow we’re making about $1 million a year net from it.( and the dollar is weakening ) . First chunk out of this is WH salary of £325k ( $425,000)

It’s just not viable without a farm out by July .

Then unfortunately , an bo axe will have to be taken to it , redundancies, extend the licences and sell the whole thing off and hopefully we can get some of our money back .

Personally I still think we will farm out 4/19. Just hope the terms are good . Min of total back costs back and 20%*+.

I don’t know what to make of EG with its so called 80% possible success rate . Very disappointing

Https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2025/0412/1507233-ireland-energy-supply/

… yet the obvious solution not even mentioned.

Yes,only WH getting options this year and much smaller than last year‘s 20 million options (1.075 exercise price ,exercisable from Jan 17 2027 and share price must be 25% higher of what is was in Jan 2024. ) ???

So if for example ,he got the price to 3p, he would make nearly £400,000 on those options alone .

So It would be interesting to know if there is a change of control event . Will they reveal this ?

Otherwise with his huge annual salary and vested dates from 2027 onwards , where is the motivation to get results Now.

Sometimes conspiracy theories come through !!!😂

Serif,my understanding he was at 6% and has reduced to 5.9% , so had no requirement to disclose . So he can now purchase or sell less than 1% before another requirement to disclose to EOG. I am not suggesting that WH is in any conspiracy, quiet the opposite.

Especially as there was no legal requirement for Laurvig to make this disclosure at all.

Definitely in play now. Why issue notice nearly a month later . Dampen price as compatriots buy?

WH buys his shares at 8.50, to counteract negative effect of Laurvig sale. Obviously not in the loop.??

Yes,waiting for our persistent seller to dampen this now .. maybe and hopefully he is gone ?

Looks like Trump has seen sense and rumour he will suspend all tariffs for 90 days except on china .Hopefully we will regain all of todays downturn by close of business

With Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent crude oil price for 2025-26 of €58 average , it will take away a big chunk of our revenues cushioned slightly by no energy levy. So the riskiness of this share has increased , whether we like it or not .

We were screwed for many years by a nutter politician and now another one , that ffffen orange clown is trying to do the same . Hopefully wiser heads in America will prevail but I doubt it .