Member Info for fleccy

Why yesterdays gains, and more, has come off BT's share price today? My own view, is that big playes use algo's to drive down targetted stocks On Exchange price, which then sets the Off Book price, they then make the big trades Off Exchange. Off Exchange trades don't affect the Exchange price, therefore allowing the market illuminati control over a stocks price direction for a relatively low cost, while they do the big trades Off Book.

"Strange, it's normally an O2/Virgin media story on BT results day"

Indeed

"I'm thinking of adding a batch at a time even though cod's law would dictate that it'll trigger a collapse"

Don't you mean shoal, instead of "batch". since you mentioned "cod's law" lol.
It's sod's law that we all get at least one typo per post.

According to Google, copper is over $9000 a ton, so 200,000 tones would have a value of at least $1.8 Billion at current market prices.

"Initial estimates indicate that around 200k tonnes of copper could be
recovered from our network through the 2030s. We are currently undertaking trials to better understand the costs associated with recovering this valuable asset. These benefits are structural upsides as the business changes, on top of the free cash flow arising from organic growth in revenue and the benefit of further transformation efficiencies, including the additional cost savings announced today, net of tax."

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/2021-22/q4/q4-fy22-release.pdf

"BT is set to more than double free cashflow before the end of the decade once it is past peak spending on ultrafast full-fibre broadband and 5G, and that could be boosted further considering BT has raised its cost-saving targets this morning. It has already delivered £1.5 billion in annual cost savings and is now eyeing £2.5 billion by the end of the 2025 financial year. Previously, it was eyeing £2 billion of savings by the end of the 2024 financial year.

It has now hooked-up 7.2 million homes to faster broadband and its 5G network covers over half of the UK population. The rollout is accelerating but BT Group has a long way to go before its converged network offering faster connectivity is fully unleashed across the UK.

The mammoth task of rolling out these services across the UK is not cheap. Normalised free cashflow was down 5% during the year at £1.4 billion as a result of a 25% jump in capital expenditure to £5.3 billion. However, analysts believe cashflow will start to improve in the current year considering the capex budget is set to fall to £4.8 billion."

https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/where-next-for-the-bt-group-share-price-after-earnings-grow/

Funny how this story breaks on BT Results day.

"Profit dropped, equity dropped, slipslide continues,"

Yet BT have just gone green, outperforming the market, as is Vodafone on the back of the Three announcement.

Revenue £20.9bn, down 2%, reflecting revenue decline in Enterprise and Global offset by growth in Openreach, with Consumer flat for the year and returning to growth in Q4; adjusted1 revenue down 2%
Adjusted1 EBITDA £7.6bn, up 2%, with revenue decline more than offset by lower costs from our modernisation programmes, tight cost management, and lower indirect commissions
Reported profit before tax £2.0bn, up 9%, due to increased EBITDA offsetting higher finance expense
Reported profit after tax £1.3bn, down 13%, due to remeasurement of our deferred tax balance
Net cash inflow from operating activities £5.9bn; normalised free cash flow1 £1.4bn, down 5%, due to higher cash capital expenditure, offset by higher EBITDA and lower tax and lease payments
Capital expenditure £5.3bn, up 25%. Capital expenditure excluding spectrum £4.8bn, up 14% primarily due to continued higher spend on our fibre infrastructure and mobile networks
IAS 19 gross pensions deficit £1.1bn, (31 March 2021: £5.1bn) due to an increase in real discount rate, deficit contributions paid, changes to demographic assumptions and positive asset returns
FY22 final dividend declared at 5.39p per share, bringing the full year total, as promised, to 7.70p per share
Outlook for FY23: adjusted1 revenue to grow year on year; adjusted1 EBITDA of at least £7.9bn; capital expenditure excluding spectrum of around £4.8bn; normalised free cash flow of £1.3bn to £1.5bn.

"Yes Ally, Nige & Co is one of Fleecy's desperados, or even maybe Fleecy himself."

Bandymandy Ally,Nige & Co adds up to more than one desperado, so you should learn to count, and it's spelt Fleccy, so you should also learn to spell.

"Using lag indicators can be very misleading"

I can't imagine the housing market will be dented during a recession. Mortgages may well become more expensive, but so will rents, so the housing market will be supported no matter what, imo. Unsecured debt will probably be an issue and I have no doubt that loan losses will increase, but not significantly enough to damage a bank the size of Lloyds. My personal view, is that Lloyds will be relatively unscathed during a mild recession. Anything not deemed essential would be most at risk, such as Travel/Holidays, certain products, and other non essentials. People will pay their mortgages through thick and thin, because nobody wants to lose the roof over their head. I'm also invested in BT and Vodafone, and I consider Telecom stocks to be inflation proof too, look at the recent price rises of CPI+3.9%.
I'll just keep topping up my stocks, while I see value, I'm not worried about a recession that probably wouldn't affect me anyway.

"No brainier that Lloy is now extremely undervalued, and no doubt that it’s time to be brave and buy in/top up here at these crazy oversold levels"

Shush, keep it quiet until after the 19th May.

""Where abouts in Manchester ? .......asking for a friend."
Yeah, right! lol"

LMFAO

"After that the money will be invested in funds where I only have to periodically review the strategic allocation and performance of my investments and my own personal and financial plans."

I don't like funds, although things have moved on a lot since we last invested in one, but the charges are excessive in my opinion. Why not build a portfolio of "safe" dividend stocks, in your ISA's, and review them peridically as you would do in a fund?
Depending on the size of your investments, Fund charges can be excessive; For example, my wife and I have £450,000 invested, and Hargreaves Lansdown would charge us £1,625 in fees if the whole amount was in one Fund, but we couldn't do that as we'd have to transfer seperate ISA's and cash out shares in a standard share dealing account. It would be likely we'd either have to give up on the ISA's, or have three seperate funds at the full fee rate of 0.45% up to £250,000 per fund; So the fee's would likely be £2025, instead of our current total admin charge of £72 (£36 per account). All this is assuming we could transfer the ISA's, and keep the current tax free benefits.
Over a period of time, we do plan to Bed & ISA the shares in my wife's standard share dealing account, leading up to her receiving a state pension. I don't trust Fund Managers, and therefore would rather have full control over our investments, and decide the balance of how much dividends we reinvest, or take in income, as they become available. Because I only trade occasionaly, and don't mind sitting on a paper loss, I find it relatively stress free.

Or "that has been clear for quite a while, along with a number of others."

Or "I doubt I will ever see the day when the drivel on this board ceases."

Something like "there will not be a fixed price"

"I was looking at the profiles on the ladies at a massage parlor in Manchester my attention was drawn to a profile called prya an Indian name so assumed it was an Indian girl photos looked promising looked at the information TRANSBABE LOL"

LTI will probably have something to say about that!!!

"Consumer banks (those that lend money to individuals, through loans, mortgages and credit cards) generally tend to be classified as cyclical stocks, as the demand for their services increases during periods of increased economic activity.

Lloyds outlook not good"

Current evidence contradicts that

"Estate agencies earned 37% more sales commission last year taking total sales revenue to £3.9 billion based on an average commission rate of 1.5%, the latest analysis reveals.

The data from Boomin reveals that £260.5 billion of property was purchased last year as the housing market emerged from pandemic lockdowns into a boom that saw a 25% hike in the number of properties transacted.

Agencies sharing the largest cut of the post-pandemic fees rise were those in the South East, where £56.3 billion of property was sold, earning the firms a collective £844.5 million.

They were followed by estate agencies in London where some £49.5 billion of property was sold, earning commissions worth £742.5 million.

Other areas where champagne corks were also popping last year include the East of England, the South West and North West."

https://thenegotiator.co.uk/estate-agencies-earned-3-9-billion-in-sales-fees-last-year-up-37-on-2020/

Anything else is just speculation

"flec
''I don't believe the current buyback is having any effect on the share price. ''

how many more times has the same thing have to be said - the buybacks are a return to shareholders, but reducing shares in issue - they can also increases metrics such as asset value per share - there will be fixed price that the market values Lloyds at as measured against the asset value. The market determines Lloyds value on a daily basis -currently the market values Lloyds at well below asset value.
I believe Lloyds TSB at one time had a market value of double asset value"

But I didn't say anything about any of those things, all of which I agree with you on. All I said was, ''I don't believe the current buyback is having any effect on the share price. '', which you made no reference to in your post, so what was the point of your post? lol

"At 130p with a 9c div @120 GBP/EUR it offered a 5.77% yield.

If interest rates increase by 1%, then in order to maintain its risk premium the yield would need to increase to 6.77%.
If the dividend remains flat, then the only way the yield will increase is if the price drops, and in this case it would need to drop to 110.78, and if interest rates increase by 2% then the price would need to drop to 97.40."

Compound I'm sure you're correct in your maths, without checking, but I look at the dividend income, and make a determination that the companies I invest in are relatively safe. Most retail investors don't look at risk weightings, etc, I just look at the income I can generate from the investment, and decide if there's value in the current price based on historic prices and other factors. I don't have an investment window, so I can hold until the day I die, therefore I will take the dividends on offer until the price is right.