Member Info for fleccy

"For the debt remaining to be paid off of €85bn, add together long term debt, short term debt and trade and payables."

Moleman, I've scanned through the FY 21 Annual report and Gross debt was €(56,169), with Net debt reported as €(42,047). Should Vodafone break up, Lease Liabilities are part of the forward looking overall cost of doing business, and spread out over many years, so the €13.032 Billion lease liabilities wouldn't be counted as debt in a break up. If Vodafone broke up, the purchaser(s) would want to run the various businesses on a stand alone basis, and the relevant lease liabilities would be attached, to the relevant business, as part of the deals.
In summary, lease liabilities wouldn't be considered as part of Gross debt, and neither would depreciation, so the only relevant figures are Gross and Net Debt.

As of H1 FY22, Closing Net debt was €m(44,298). I also don't see where 85.8 billion euro comes from either.
Free cash flow was negative on H1 FY22, at €m(983), but will hopefully be positive for full year results

I live in the North West, and haven't seen any evidence of a recession. I see the rise of online retailers who independently market their products, and those who sell through the likes of Amazon, as more of a threat to the high st. Since people have been ordering globally, for a long time , that also reduces the chance of a prolonged recession. Much of the UK has rebalanced, due to years of over competition, so we have a resilient economy. The most likely outcome, of the current situation, is that UK manufacturing will ramp up to fill any gaps, as evidenced in todays UK MFG PMI.

"UK Manufacturing PMI Revised Higher in April
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 55.8 in April of 2022 from a preliminary of 55.3 and up from a 13-month low of 55.2 in March. Solid rates of expansion were registered for intermediate and investment goods, while the expansion at consumer goods producers was only marginal. Companies linked higher production to increased intakes of new business, reduced delivery delays (compared to earlier in the year) and efforts to clear backlogs of work. On the other hand, new export business slowed amid subdued conditions in overseas markets, the war in Ukraine and transportation issues. Lacklustre demand from the EU was linked to longer delivery times, customs checks and higher shipping costs post-Brexit. Also, input costs rose at the second-strongest pace ever and the rate of inflation at consumer goods producers hit a series-record high. The overall degree of confidence slumped to a 16-month low.
2022-05-03

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/manufacturing-pmi

Trading Economics are probably one of the vested interests constantly trying to talk down anything positive, but you can't dismiss the fact that the PMI was higher than forecast, which is a positive for the UK economy.

"A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP."

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-204

Latest Release
May 03, 2022
Actual 55.8
Forecast 55.3
Previous 55.2

"With just 500 reported to be sent in first year it will obviously fail
But it will help Johnson hang on for a few more months after the local election results"

Apparently the rest are being sent to the Republic of Ireland.

"Fleccy, I think your views are absurd. "Send then all to Rwanda". That would be UK sponsored trafficking. Is that what you want? Think about it."

I would take them straight from the lifeboats, or UK shoreline, to the airport and send them straight to Rwanda. I don't care what you call it, if they have a valid claim they'll be brought back, where's the issue? In my opinion, none of them have a right to be here, as they had plenty of opportunity to claim asylum in other safe countries they transited.

This is the response:

"Thank you for your correspondence regarding processing asylum claims in Rwanda. Let me first reassure you that the UK has a proud history of supporting those in need of protection; our resettlement programmes have provided safe and legal routes to better futures for hundreds of thousands of people from across the globe.
However, it is clear that the global asylum system is broken. Some 80 million people are on the move around the world, driven from their homes by conflict and instability. Many more people are on the move to seek better prospects, driven by a desire for a better life. The result is increased illegal migration flows, including into Europe and onto the UK, with the asylum systems collapsing under the strain of real humanitarian crises and people smugglers exploiting the system for their own gain.
It is therefore extremely encouraging that the UK has now entered the world’s first Migration and Economic Development Partnership with Rwanda. Under the partnership, people who enter the UK illegally, including by small boat across the Channel, may have their asylum claim considered in Rwanda rather than in the UK, with a view to receiving the protection they need in Rwanda if their claim is granted.
The UK is investing £120 million into the economic development and growth of Rwanda, with funding also provided to support the delivery of asylum operations, accommodation and integration, similar to the costs incurred in the UK for these services. Furthermore, it is the case that Rwanda has one of the fastest-growing economies and enterprise cultures, with growing trade links with the UK, which this scheme will complement as part of the Government’s Global Britain agenda.
Rwanda has a credible track record of hosting refugees and working constructively with the UN Refugee Agency to provide food, healthcare, and jobs with over 130,000 refugees recently resettled. The EU and UN both resettle people in Rwanda. Since 2019 Rwanda has been working with the UN Refugee Agency and the African Union to support over 500 refugees and asylum seekers evacuated from Libya, under the Emergency Transit Mechanism. They are housed at a dedicated centre providing mental health services, legal assistance, employment training and opportunities. Rwanda has also supported around 30,000 Burundian refugees who have also transited to the centre since 2015.
These new measures, combined with the reforms to the asylum system and the changes to our laws in the Nationality and Borders Bill, will help deter illegal entry into the UK. In doing so it will help break the business model of the criminal smuggling gangs, protect the lives of those theyendanger, ensure continued support for the truly vulnerable, and enhance our ability to remove
those with no right to be in the UK.
Thank you again for taking the time to contact me and if I can be of further assistance to you in respect of this or any other matter, please do not hesitate to get in

I sent an email to my MP about the Rwansa plan:

"I fully support the Government, in their new policy of sending channel Migrants to Rwanda, since nothing else is likely to work. Hopefully there is some teeth behind this policy, and it isn't a gimmick to secure votes in the upcoming local elections. In my opinion, any migrant camping on French shores and coming across the channel by illegal means, should be viewed as an economic migrant, not a refugee, so they should all be sent to Rwanda.
I have no objection to Ukraine refugee's, who are clearly fleeing to safety from war, and stating they want to return to rebuild their country once the conflict ends. The channel migrants are already in a safe country, where they could claim asylum, having crossed multiple safe countries to arrive at the Channel. It's clear the channel migrants are heading to the UK, because they want a better way of life with no intention of returning to their home country; Where many of them pay unofficial Travel Agents a fee, to act as a go between with people smugglers, and plan their journey to the UK. From news articles, it appears that many families, in countries like Iraq, pool funds to pay for passage of a family member with the intention of earning income, or gaining economic benefit. I repeat, there is a world of difference between Ukraine refugee's, and Channel Economic Migrants.

https://news.sky.com/story/migrant-crossing-kurdish-travel-agent-thinks-about-channel-deaths-every-day-but-defends-his-role-in-network-12498388 "

"Falky, it’s all of the UK but I can see more properties coming on the market now especially higher value homes, a slow down is imminent."

High market homes are always coming on the market, as an example this new build in Bolton is currently up for sale for a mere £1,1 Million.

https://www.primelocation.com/new-homes/details/61277714/?search_identifier=2bcdf23dfde3de3582ac96c6caff06f8

Or these:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/65896386#/?channel=RES_BUY

My daughters boyfriend has recently purchased a mid terraced property for £116,000, with the mortgage repayments less than the rental he was paying in a shared house.
The UK housing market will remain bullet proof, as long as purchasers see ownership superior to renting

"Were these the same economists who were saying in 2020 and 2021 that interest rates should not be raised to control inflation for fear of stalling the recovery from COVID crisis!"

Yep, they re-write the narrative on the fly. They've either got the memory of a Goldfish, or they think we have.

"A choice between 1.5- 2 or 3.5 % yield . See where history takes us .
Rinse and repeat . PI's tends to be victims if they don't stay ahead of the curve ."

John, I decided to look at bond prices, going back to 2010, and compare them to fluctuations in Lloyds share price.
Here's a chart of US 10 Year average treasury yields, going back to 2010, compared to Lloyds share price divided by 10, at each year end. I divided the Lloyds share price to scale the chart.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSXYGjldOkRpbvdUWnm5QDN8zld8lkxU_p9dSxSZs6m438Y7xbp8HxHGmGMIGQ8GcqHItYIg2Yp2q9x/pubchart?oid=953665844&format=interactive

If you look at the chart, between the close of 2011, and 2013, Lloyds share price climbed considerably, while US 10 year treasury yields slightly increased around the same levels. between 2018 and 2020 close, Lloyds share price followed bond yields down, and followed them up between 2020 and 2021 close.

Going off the chart, I can't see any valid correlation between US 10 year treasury yields and Lloyds share price. In my opinion, Lloyds will go where the big market players want it to go.

"So you're now telling us US 10 yr Ts @ 3.5% won't affect Lloy share price "

John, can you explain how US 10 yr bonds at 3.5% will affect Lloyds share price, and to what extent?

"All the UK signs are bad. None is good."

Skier, you don't see the bigger picture. I would have thought anyone could see the game is rigged in favour of certain countries, the UK being one of them. The UK's protection comes from a combination of history and geography, no matter how bad things get the country will miraculously pull through. Because the UK's infrastructure is relatively good, and we have a relatively well educated population, the economy is flexible enough to re-balance, as necessary, in a down turn.
If you want to look at a country with dire problems, look at France. Their workforce is probably the most militant in Europe. The French Government is under the control of the Unions, forcing them to hold stakes in many large unprofitable companies. The French say they want to be in the EU, but riot, vandalise, and burn, when cheaper imports come in from other EU states.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/10/spain-hits-back-at-french-guerre-des-vins-wine-protest

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-33620008

https://apnews.com/article/8bfc0cd5b74bb238fce6c8c64af416d6

France is the one to watch in terms of decline, it will be brought down by it's own people, just a matter of when, not if; And the French athorities just stand by while crimes are commited, because they know the country is walking a tiny path on an unstable cliff face.

https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-photography-daring-three-little-mountain-goats-colorado-image18616732

"But in time given the simplicity which there will be in delivering the service could telephony and internet services be provided by more and more companies?"

There are already loads of companies offering internet and telephony, Sky, Talk, Zen, to mention just a few. As well as the CP's that use Openreach infrastructure, companies like CityFibre are trying to break into the wholesale market, but going off some of the headlines they're struggling a bit. It's one thing putting in the Fibre, but it's another story building a wholesale business. BT/Openreach are fighting back with offerings like the Equinox offer, aimed at encouraging CP's (Communication Providers) to migrate customers off copper and onto FTTP. BT/Openreach have also been running wholsale business using Co-location areas for years, and are therefore experienced at running the business, and understanding the requirements of CP's. In my opinion, BT's a safe bet, at the current price, as it has scale and many cross subsidising businesses, to aid in funding their FTTP and 5G rollouts. A lot is made of BT's debt and Pension deficit, but BT have already announced £1 Billion annual cost savings a year, ahead of schedule, soon rising to £2 Billion annual savings by 2025. A third of their debt is lease liabilities, and the rollout of FTTP will lead to the closure of around 4600 Exchanges, released to Telereal once they are vacated reducing the lease liabilities, and BT will get a cut of whatever Telereal get ffrom selling, or developing, the buildings. The pension deficit isn't as bad as some suggest, it is reducing yearly and the Pension trustees are looking at an insurance buyout once it's in surplus.
Vodafone is a bit more difficult to fathom, due to it's high debt, but it's a cash generating behemoth with many varied valuable assets. I don't worry about any of my investments, as I view them as bullet proof and just require the patience to wait for a high return. Of course I'll happily collect the dividends in the meantime.

"Speaking face to face is a good idea I have always found."

I can't remember the last time I went into a bank branch, I also can't remember the last time I paid for anything in cash lol. Why would anyone need to go into a bank branch? You can video conferencing for face to face chats, (Skype/WhatsApp), and you can even exchange documents online and If signatures are required, there's still the postal service. Most people wouldn't choose to go into a branch these days.

"Sounds good. And well done. Watch the risks maybe. Voip and satellite cable are going to hit telecomms possibly."

I worked in Telecoms for over 30 years, so it's an industry I understand. The market narrative, used to knock Telecom stocks, is that they say the industry is plagued by constant upgrade and investment cycles, but I don't see that going forward. Since I started in Telecoms, in the 80's, I worked on PDH/SDH/DWDM, as well as working on switch concentrators, IP Switches and routers, and VOIP products like Cisco call manager, so I have a pretty good grounding in the subject.
Why do I think the market narrative is wrong? Telecom networking technology is now pushing the boundaries allowable in Physics. FTTP uses Fibre, and the theoretical optical bandwidth limit of a single fibre is 1 petabit per second per optical mode, so about a petabit/sec in each direction; That bandwidth will never be required on an FTTP link serving up to 32 users per single fibre, so no future infrastructure upgrades there. 5G will have cells everywhere, with higher frequency high bandwidth cells serving shopping centres/stadiums/etc, and with micro cells and Massive MIMO cells covering various locations, as required, so there's not much else to upgrade on mobile. 6G will be an extension of 5G, and will probably be more about services than technology. Because everything's going IP Cloud, the convergence gets rid of the PSTN network, reducing costs for BT in particular.
As far as Starlink's concerned, it's no threat to Telecoms companies in the UK. Microwave frequencies are susceptible to atmospheric anomalies and rain fade, and don't come close to the bandwidths available on Fibre.
In summary the market's wrong, once FTTP/5G/IP Cloud convergence is completed, there's no major technological upgrades possible from there. You'll get improvements in hardware/optics/cell tech, but more of a slow evolution than a major upgrade.
In summary, unless someone discovers subspace, or a way to communicate using Quantum Entanglement, Telecoms is reaching the limits of our current understanding of physics, so major infrastructure, or hierarchical upgrades, wont be required after the current upgrade cycle.

"You said stocks in general, not just here. Fair enough."

Actually 3 stocks, BT, VOD, and Lloyds, although our Lloyds holding is now the largest since investing a further £40,000 the day before ex-dividend. Not quite half a million invested, but we will probably exceed £450,000 invested, over the next 12 months.

"fleccy "i can hold forever" NO YOU CAN'T. That's the problem"

I can hold as long as necessary lol. Our stocks are going to bring in £20,000 dividends in the next year, which is surplus to requirements since I recieve income from two DB pension schemes. Our mortgage was paid off many years ago, and we have cash savings too, where's the rush?

UK stocks have been out of favour since the Brexit vote in 2016, so I'm just going to continue topping up while, in my opinion, they're undervalued. Unlike the professionals I can hold my stocks forever, and collect dividends In the meantime. I look at it as a war of attrition between retail investors, like me, and the big institutional market power players. The only way I lose, is if I give in to them, but my Diamond hands will see that doesn't happen.

"ffs - suppose the share prices doesn't touch 45.95 for weeks"

A dedicated thread would only show your SB posts, and responses from other posters. It's easy to do a CTRL F, and search the thread for "45.95" per page, until the correct entry is found; A lot easier than hunting through pages of unrelated threads.

"you mean possibly scrolling back through hundreds of posts of posts"

Why do you do hndreds of SB's?
My point was, that CSDI1962 was correct in everything he said. If you posted all your SB's in a single thread, then anyone wanting to look back over your SB history would only need to click on the reply button, and scroll down without other subject threads gapping the relevant information; Unless of course, you don't want your SB history to be easily checkable by interested parties?