Member Info for fleccy

https://www.ed.ac.uk/research-office/winning-research-funding/manage-award/national-security-and-investment-act-2021/how-does-the-government-call-in-power-apply

"Following a call-in, the acquisition will be assessed for risk of harm to national security. The assessment can result in the acquisition being cleared, made subject to conditions, blocked, or in the event that a licensing arrangement has already taken effect, unwound."

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2021/25/section/1/enacted

"1Call-in notice for national security purposes
(1)The Secretary of State may give a notice if the Secretary of State reasonably suspects that—
(a)a trigger event has taken place in relation to a qualifying entity or qualifying asset, and the event has given rise to or may give rise to a risk to national security, or
(b)arrangements are in progress or contemplation which, if carried into effect, will result in a trigger event taking place in relation to a qualifying entity or qualifying asset, and the event may give rise to a risk to national security.
(2)For the purposes of this Act, in considering whether a trigger event has taken place, or whether arrangements are in progress or contemplation which, if carried into effect, will result in a trigger event taking place, the effect of section 13(1) (notifiable acquisitions that are void) must be disregarded.
(3)A notice under subsection (1) is referred to in this Act as a call-in notice.
(4)If the Secretary of State decides to give a call-in notice, the notice must be given to—
(a)the acquirer,
(b)if the trigger event relates to a qualifying entity, the entity, and
(c)such other persons as the Secretary of State considers appropriate.
(5)The call-in notice must include a description of the trigger event to which it relates and state the names of the persons to whom the notice is given.
(6)The Secretary of State may not give a call-in notice unless a statement has been published (and not withdrawn) for the purposes of section 3.
(7)The Secretary of State must have regard to that statement before giving a call-in notice.
(8)But nothing in the statement limits the power to give a call-in notice."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/altice-uk-national-security-investment-act-2021-dkeqrucacdulle3.html

"BT Group plc ("BT Group") has received notification from the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that he has considered the increase by Altice UK of its shareholding in BT Group from 12.1% to 18% and is exercising his call-in power under section 1 of the National Security and Investment Act 2021. BT Group will fully cooperate with this review."

"Compound. What did you mean when you said that the price was being walked up?"

Probably using Algo's to make repeated small buys on exchange, when the volumes drop, and brokers directing volume sells off exchange to dark pools, rather than selling on exchange. The power players can do almost anything with a stocks price.
I thought the recent Meme short squeezes were funny though. Hedge funds had built up big short positions, on companies like Gamestop and AMC, such was the level of shorting that shares were shorted more than once. Retail investors piled in with small buys, pushing the price up and there wasn't enough trading stock to cover the shorts, so the squeeze happened.

Currently over 131p, VOD's flying at the moment.

"TSLA have so much cash coming in they built 2 mega factories and still increased the cash balance to $20bn and have negative net debt."

With a P/E of around 90, and the fact they don't pay dividends, I wouldn't consider Tesla at the current valuation. There's no doubt they're currently the King of the EV world, but the competition are now gearing up, and heavily investing in EV. Tesla's share price can only go one way in my opinion.

"Hello fleccy. Surely the question is why didn't the sp climb towards 1.30 on the Monday,after the Etisalat announcement"

I get where you're coming from, but why isn't the share price £2 using that argument? Funny that dividend stocks, popular with retail invetors, have been hammered for years. The big players may have their own battles, but there's nothing to suggest they wont join forces to attack retail, and make money at the same time. If you look at Telecom stocks, you've got Telecom Itallia/KKR, BT/Drahi, VOD/Etisalat, and others, it's unlikely that these events would have occured if the sector was fairly valued. I think stock valuations are Engineered, with the big players having more than enough tools to send a stock, or sector, in any direction they wish. Since stock prices are set On Exchange, and Off Book prices are set by the On Exchange price, it wouldn't be difficult for big vested interests to drive the price On Exchange, while making big deals Off Exchange; Throw in Derivatives, CFD's, CDO's, and whatever else may be in their armoury, the big market players control the markets in my opinion.

"They said the scammers do it to get a SMS sent in the hope that you click on the link so they rob your phone data ..I didnt click anything or authorise anything....they just had the card number from somewhere...maybe online business hack"

Pokerchips, are you saying your phone has been hacked? I'm trying to understand the nature of the fraud perpertrated against you. From what you've said it looks as though your card data has been skimmed, probably in a garage or small retail outlet you've visited. The reason for making transactions lower than the contactless limit is to avoid authorisation procedures now being implimented. I assume you've now been issued a new card, with your old card disabled?

The problem with Ryanair, is its lack of a dividend, as I pointed out months ago before the Ukraine war, in the "World No 1 LCC" thread, 12th Jan 2022.

"I'm not giving you any advice, I'm just giving you an example of the difference between holding dividend paying stocks, and stocks that pay no dividend. Anything could happen next year, Vodafone share price could fall through the floor and Ryanair's share price could "take off", so you have to do your own research and make your own decisions; But if you keep holding Ryanair, and waiting for €20, which might not happen, you could be sitting on capital errosion due to inflation, just the same as investing in a stock that subsequently falls."

Of course I had no idea Ulraine would be invaded on the 24th February, when I scripted that post, but it appears my point has been proved. When I wrote the post Ryanair was around €16.6, and climbed to over €18 by the 10th Feb; Since then Ryanair has dropped to lower than €13, currently sitting around €14.21. My dividend paying stocks have taken a hit too, but I've just collected a Lloyds dividend of more than £5000, and will be be receiving hefty dividend payouts from BT and Vodafone in the next couple of months, some I'll take as income and reinvesting the rest.
€20 may arrive at some point, but inflation will have eroded any capital gain dramatically by then. Dividends reinvested is a form of growth, as your growing the size of your holding therefore increasing future dividends, allowing you to grow your holdings by a factor dependant on the dividend and price movement. Dividend/value investors have taken a lot of stick over the past 6 or 7 years, but the rotation from growth to value may have finally arrived, and I've been filling my boots with dividend stocks while the prices were depressed.

Anyone know why Vodafone is up nearly 10% since the 19th May? The Etisalat announcement was over the weekend, with the RNS on Monday 16th May. Following the Etisalat announcement the share price was around 120p, dropping to nearly 116p on the morning of the 19th May, before starting the climb to the current level. All I can think is the imminent dividend is driving the current rise, which may suggest that dividend paying stocks are coming back into fashion.

"In my opinion Drahi wants Openreach, I don't think that he could afford to purchase the whole of BT, but I suppose he is an expert where debt is concerned"

I have no idea if Drahi will increase his shareholding, but the chance of him making a bid for BT are remote, unless he does it in partnership with others. Since Openreach is part of BT, the only way someone could split it off is by buying BT. It's unlikely the Government would allow foreign enitities to takeover BT, and would likely use the new National Security legislation to block such a deal. It could be Drahi see's the value locked into BT's share price, seeing BT as a good investment. I never agreed with the narrative suggesting BT is a bad investment, or that any of the big Telco's are bad investments. Big Tech can't do business without Telecom providers, that gives the Telecom companies large intrinsic value. My personal view is that Telco's will see a narrative change at some point, and see vested interest media pump the sector up, rather than knocking it down.

"That can very quickly lead to a recession, which in itself is bad for company profits and share prices as gross revenues decline, but a recession with high inflation is even worse as that puts pressure on company margins so profits take a hit from both the top and bottom line."

"VOD could also face very similar problems. Yes they have something everyone 'needs' and they might be increasing existing customers contracts by CPI+3.9%, but in their forecasts they weren't predicting gross revenue to increase by anywhere near that amount."

Don't disagree with you about the risk of recession, but Telecom stocks are among the best recession proof sectors. As far as the UK Telecom price rises, all providers are increasing their prices by CPI+3.9%, but Openreach wholesale prices are regulated to CPI increase only, so the CP's using Openreach infrastructure should benefit by 3.9% above inflation. Consumers can only switch at the the end of their contracts, as the current price rises are written into contracts. Consumers may switch at the end of their contracts, to take advantage of new customer teaser offers, but that's the only risk since all providers are raising their prices.
I wonder about the new UK Altnets, since they're are building their networks from investment, with an uncertain customer takeup. The Altnets can try and undercut Openreach, on wholesale, but offers like Equinox make that difficult. CityFibre have taken OFCOM to court, to fight the decision allowing Openreach to offer the Equinox deal, with the Judgement pending.

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/14263321-cityfibre-limited

"The governor of the Bank of England said almost 2 weeks ago that we are facing hyper inflation we can’t do much about"

Compound, did the BOE governor actually use the word hyperinflation? Since, in my book, hyperinflation suggests out of control inflation where price rises occur on an almost daily basis. All I've heard is 10% inflation, which is high, but not out of control. As far as interest rates are concerned, the BOE doesn't need to raise UK interest rates as high as the US, as even small increases reduce disposable incomes for variable rate mortgage holders, which is a substantial percentage of UK householders; I think the BOE have only been raising in 0.25 increments, for that reason.

"Hello fleccy. You sound a bit rattled today. unusual for you. What do you think about vod's deb't?"

Not rattled, just been roasting in this hot weather. I don't like Debt, but Vodafone has carried a ton of debt for years. If they wanted to go debt free, they could have done that when the sold their share in Verizon Wireless. I'm not sure why Telecom companies like to carry debt; They don't need to carry as much as they do, as they could focus on debt reduction using their profits, possibly at the expense of the dividend. It must suit them to carry the debt, otherwise they would reduce it, an accountant might have a good idea why.
I think the 8 years was in reference to Telecoms in general, with moves to 5G/IOT/FTTP. I said 8 years as companies like McKinsey reckon on multi Trillion Dollar revenuse from IOT by then.

"By 2030, we estimate that it could enable $5.5 trillion to $12.6 trillion in value globally"

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/iot-value-set-to-accelerate-through-2030-where-and-how-to-capture-it

That will be spread across multiple industries, but Telecoms should get a good cut of the profits imo.

" Time will tell & if I know VOD that will be a very long time."

That's your problem Gary, you know absolutely nothing about VOD.

"Telecoms companies are absolute minnows compared the sharks on Wall Street. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon - any of them have enough cash reserves to buy VOD outright. "

I couldn't agree more, and since the FAANGS whole business model relies on Telecom infrastructure, the Networks are valuable assets. The EU are heavily scrutinising the Tech Giants, and it's only a matter of time until the regulators show their Fangs, and look into creaming off the Tech Giants profits. Why would you allow an American company to contnually export profits, while at the same time damaging your local economy? One way, or another, the Tech Giants are going to get their wings clipped, with OFCOM and EU regulators looking at every aspect of their businesses. Facebook have just fought a court case through the CAT, against the Competition Markets Authority, to fight the order to sell Gyphy, with the result pending. What we're seeing now, is the initial attacks on the US Tech Giants, I expect them to ramp up in the coming years, and from all directions. Like OFCOM went after BT, expect regulators Worldwide to go after the Tech Giants. If Facebook loses against the CMA, then the repercusions for Facebook will be Worldwide, even though the CMA is a UK regulator.

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/facebook-inc-giphy-inc-merger-inquiry

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/142941221-meta-platforms-inc

"They haven't benefitted at all from the move to the cloud, so it's not a given that they will benefit hugely from the next shift to IOT."

I wouldn't be too sure about that, IOT cloud requires connectivity, and the cloud providers need the Telecoms companies to provide that connectivity. Many of the new IOT applications will require servers geographically close to the user equipment. BT are testing products like hollow core Fibre, to reduce latency from the Cell to the Head End, and the Telecoms companies will likely house many of the Edge servers required to reduce latency to a minimum. It's highly unlikely that server farms will be financially viable nationwide, just to support IOT cloud. I expect companies like Google, Amazon, etc will need to partner/utilise Telecom company infrastructure, and that will generate revenue. Theoretically Telecom companies could undercut the current cloud players, just because of their geographic advantage. Going off recent articles I expect the partnership route is most likely, rather than Telecoms companies trying to compete on IOT cloud, but the options are there.
Just to add, it's wrong to suggest that Telecoms companies haven't benefited from the move to Cloud, businesses need connectivity between the corporate locations and server farms, and that isn't free. Telecom companies are also looking at massive reductions in operating costs, due to the move toward fully converged IP networks, and the retirement of PSTN, etc. Also bear in mind that Telecom companies are canvassing regulators to restrict Net Neutrality, and transfer more costs from Network providers onto the Cloud providers. The reason the likes of Amazon and Google have managed to compete so well in cloud, is because their business model is subsidised by the Network builders, but that's about to change. Telecom companies will print money in the not too distant future, it's inevitable.

Wonder if it's a Fat Finger trade.

Confirmed, very confusing trade.

2022-05-17 10:51:42 GBX 138.768 17915979 24861645.74 Off-Book XLON TNCP XLON

"IOT will become an integral part of our lives, as will the connectivity to run it, but we'll probably just take that connectivity for granted and end up paying the same or less for it. We already pay less now for 5G than we did for 3G 10-15 years ago, despite the massive infrastructure spend to deliver it. The big winners will be true tech companies offering new products/subscriptions."

Compound, IOT isn't really about people like you and me. The home user already utilises IOT, via broadband, with products like Hive. The big money in IOT will be commercial Macro area applications, like Monitoring, Surveilance, and Control. I expect the new Income will come from Councils, Government, and Corporate. As far as IOT and Cloud, many of the new applications will be latency sensitive, so the cloud servers will need to be geographically close to the IOT equipment. Whole new applications around traffic management, driverless cars, etc, etc, etc will become viable, opening up brand new revenue streams for Telecom companies.