Member Info for fleccy

"Looked into this forum for the first time in ages and what the hell has happened to it , its now just a bunch of windbags talking about anything other than Lloyds"

"It's not unusual it happens every day
No matter what you say
It's not unusual, to be mad with anyone
It's not unusual, to be sad with anyone
Whoa-oh-oh-oh-oh"

"I have no emotional attachment to any shares, why would I?, but it is quite true for me to say i cannot rebuy if i chose to sell, thats a fact, other than buying Adrs."

OK then, I get it, you don't have any emotional attachment to your Ryanair shares, you'll just keep holding them until they hit €20, even if it takes until 2040 to get there; And you're reluctant to sell them as you can't buy them back, since the EU won't allow it.

"As for crypto im just not interested in it at all, i have none, never will have any, and think its a load of made up carp, i wouldnt waste my time with it as a consequence. You continue to enjoy watching it if you want, not one for wasting my time on something im not interested in myself."

We agree on the investment case for Crypto, but my interest is due to the macro environment leading up to it carrying a $2 trillion valuation in November 2021. $2 trillion tied up in "assets", with no intrinsic value, sucks money out of real stocks, and supports the idea that fundamentals aren't important when investing. In my opinion, the complete demise of the Crypto currency world will signal the return of sanity to the general markets, with money free'd up to chase real stocks, not fantasy stocks. Some of the Crypto companies facing liquidity issues have just received capital injections, which may be what's lifted the Crypto currency prices currently; The big question is, is the enthusiasm still there to lift the likes of Bitcoin much above the current levels? Proshares have just launched an ETF shorting Bitcoin, called BITI, in New York apparently. Why products shorting Bitcoin weren't available months ago is beyond me; I would neither invest in Bitcoin, or short it, but I imagine the new ETF will attract a lot of money from those willing to bet against the "currency".

"Two purchases 9.01€ and 9.11€? Glen owes me £2.71. Lloy 41p. Shel £12.52. BP £2.76.".

It appears you have impeccable timing when purchasing stocks, just not so good when it comes to timing selling them.

"I would certainly consider it as it approached yes but it wouldnt be a certainty purely because i cannot buy back in again if things changed and improved, so i have to be more flexible with that one specifically."

When you make statements like "purely because i cannot buy back in again", and not for the first time, it makes me think you have some sort of emotional attachment to Ryanair. Does it really matter if you can't buy back into Ryanair, once you've sold? You could invest your profits elsewhere, since you seem pretty good at picking stocks that will rise.
I know it's off topic, but I've been watching Bitcoin a lot lately, not because I'd ever buy, but because I'm fascinated by the psychology of the vested interest, and fanboy community, justifying holding and buying more no matter what. Bitcoin is back over $21,000 and Ethereum is back over $1,100, so a slight recovery from the weekend lows. I'm convinced that Crypto currencies operate on the greater fool theory, and I'm awaiting the next collapse with interest.

Anyone know what's driving this morning's rise?

"I've made my position plenty clear, I think the Tories are responsible for how the country has been ran in the last decade. Not surprising, considering they have been in power and running the country for the last decade."

It's been a pretty exceptional 15 years. It was Labour who were in power going into the financial crisis, so the Tory's can't be blamed for that. The one thing Gordon Brown did right was supporting the banking industry, as people losing their savings would have irrecoverably brought down the entire system.
Cameron allowed two referendums, the Scottish Independance referendum and Brexit. Governments can allow referendums, but it's voters who decide the result. Since Brexit, we've had to contend with a hung parliament, where vested interest politicians tried every trick in the book to get Brexit reversed, so nothing else could be done. The seeds of the Northern Ireland Protocol were sown before the Tory's secured their landslide victory, so arguably Boris Johnson was penned in, and had to sign the protocol to push Brexit through. Boris Johnson is saying that the EU is enforcing the protocol in such a way that it's not working for both sides. If it's true that the EU are enforcing the Protocol in order to sow political instability, within UK politics, then they shouldn't be surprised when there's kick back. Various UK vested interest politicians, arguably acting in cahoots with the EU, have made it as difficult as possible for the Conservative Goverment, in order to reverse a democratic vote result, so politicians of all parties are to blame for much of the Brexit related issues.
We've had Covid, with massive financial support required to sustain businesses and employment, and now we have the war in Ukraine, I suspect any Government would struggle under these circumstances.

"However I’ve never heard of anyone that I’ve known applying for strike payments in lieu of lost pay, it must be means tested for the less well off."

Interesting read. I've never been on strike, so I've no idea what happens in relation to strike pay, and supporting members who are struggling.

"Preservation of CAPITAL is KING, at least you can move your cash elsewhere when the divis disappear."

Does that mean you'll sell your Ryanair shares, should the price drop to near your purchase price?
Out of curiosity what is your Ryanair average cost per share? Mine are, Lloyds 49p, BT 197p, VOD 146p.

I'm around a bit today, as I'm watching Livestream Crypto pumpers on YouTube, which I find hilarious, while I watch BTC fluctuate around $19,000. I'm really interested in the fanatical, almost religous, fervour within the Crypto community. I wouldn't touch Crypto myself, but I'm fascinated by the rhetoric from the pumpers, and investors like Kevin O Leary (Probably not related to Michael O Leary). I'm waiting for the next leg down, as my guess is we're seeing the demise of Crypto.

According to Google, the CWU has around 200,000 members. Maybe over 100,000 Postal workers, and around 40,000 at BT. The reason I mention those two, is that BT members are already being balloted, and Royal Mail members are on course to be balloted. If the CWU were offering strike pay of £50 a day, and both sets of workers strike at the same time, that would come to £7 Million a day in strike pay, ouch.

"I wonder what the CWU has in reserves."

"Communication Workers Union
Annual Statement to the Members for 2020"

https://www.cwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Statement-32A-2020.pdf

https://www.cwu.org/ltb/ltb-364-21-cwu-accounts-2020/

"You are NOT making a "return" at all. You are subsidising VOD BT and LLOY with your own money to the tune of £30k."

I think I understand where you're coming from, even though I don't necessarily agree with your view. Using your subsidy analogy, that £30k doesn't take account of Returns I've already received, taken as income, so the figure is incorrect. Lets pretend I invested at the beginning of this year, with my investments immediately falling in value by £50k, with next April being the first annual £20k Return, even if the share prices, and Returns (dividends), stay the same, that £50k paper loss would reduce to zero in just two and a half years, effectively making the paper loss meaningless, with subsequent years being pure profit.

"So so SO many people on this platform think that 'paper losses' dont somehow count. They most certainly do. If you had to sell up tomorrow, for whatever reason,"

Disregarding investors forced to sell, who probably shouldn't have invested anyway, paper losses and paper gains aren't real until you sell, as demonstrated by the recent fall in your Ryanair investment, where was your capital gain when Ryanair was at €18?
Ever heard of Schrodinger's cat? Schrodinger came up with a thought experiment, where he postulated a cat in box could be poisoned, dependent on atomic decay releasing a poison. In the thought experiment the cat is neither alive, nor dead, until the observer opens the box. Imagine you only look at your share dealing account on the 6th April every two years, and don't look at charts, follow the markets, etc inbetween, so you only get a snapshot of your account balance on the dates you look at your account; You would have no idea what your shares were doing on the 6th April on the inbetween years, as you have no access to that information, so your investment could have halved or doubled, on paper, in the intervening years. You could only form an opinion, on the success of your investments, on the dates you look at your account.
PAPER LOSSES, OR GAINS, AREN'T REAL UNTIL YOU SELL, AT WHICH POINT IT BECOMES A CAPITAL LOSS, OR CAPITAL GAIN.

"The financial illiteracy and 'im always right' blinkered unlistening attitude of some just amazes me."

DT, I'm not always right, the timing of my initial investments prove that. As far as "financial illiteracy", I think I'm pretty good with my money. My timing might not be so good, but I have a strategy which I'm sticking too, and I'm confident it'll pay off. I wouldn't accuse you of being financially illiterate, as I have no idea of your financial situation, but I would say you're blinkered in holding out for your €20 target, especially since I told you in January that €18 was more achievable in a reasonable timeframe; That boat's sailed for the time being, it left port in February.

"And whilst posting this, i will remind you that you did EXACTLY the same yourself when you watched you £1.97 BT buy in price plunge to £1.40 after seeing it rise over the £2 mark. As i said to you at the time you could have sold and bought back and earned far far more shares, and hence an increased beloved dividend. You still hold and instead have a capital LOSS"

DT you're arguments are so flawed, they border on hilarious. Your investment might be up on your purchase price, but you haven't made any capital gains, only a small paper gain at the current price. While you hold Ryanair your capital is tied up without Returning any cash, so you're getting no Return on your investment.
I'm currently sitting on a paper loss, but getting £20,000 a year Return on my investments; I'm taking approximately half the cash as income, and re-investing the other half, thereby increasing my Returns year on year. There's no guarantee that Ryanair will ever reach €20, so will you still be holding the stock in 2030, waiting? You got lucky with the timing of your investment, which was a good move, and I was unlucky on the timing of my investments, that's the way the cookie crumbles, what's just as important is what you do once you're invested; I'm getting paid to hold, you're not.

"You still hold and instead have a capital LOSS"

I haven't lost any capital as it's still invested. I'm currently sitting on a Paper Loss, but that doesn't worry me in the slightest as I have confidence in my investments. I lost Returns during the pandemic, but I took the opportunity to top up my investments, at the lower prices, bringing my average prices per share down dramatically, and recieving £6000 a year more even though the Returns restarted at a lower level.

Notice I didn't use the D word, and stuck with Returns instead; It nicely replaces the D word as I know that upsets you and John. John, to save any confusion, the D word isn't Dyslexia.

"Dividend payments are not guaranteed and when they cease or dramatically reduced the share price effect can be claustrophobic"

Possibly even catastrophic John lol. Some of my stocks suffer from a fear of confined spaces too LMAO.

"I have come to the conclusion that you are either a bit of a moron or you love the sound of your fingers hitting the keyboard.
I repeat what I earlier posted - " .. your nausiatiing comments on benefit of dividend bearing stocks are a long clapped out record"."

Actually John, what's Moronic is allowing your capital to be tied up in a company generating no return, and passing up opportunities to sell at a high valuation when the opportunity arises, in the hope the price will reach a wildly optimistic value. Meanwhile Ryanair has dropped 33% since Feb, with the macro situation showing no sign of abating, and Ryanair investors not seeing any return on their capital.
The way you guys talk about "Uncle Mikey" makes me wonder if you have pictures of him around your houses; Do you send him fan mail with kisses and hugs? Because that's the impression I get, from the fanboy content that some of you post on here. Do you go to bed and say "oooh Mikey lets get it on" to the autographed Michael O leary pic on your bedside cabinet?

At least it's added to some interest to a boring Saturday morning. Apparently some more stable coins are losing their pegs, we could be at the start of a cascading meltdown.

"Until governments make it legal tender it was always a joke.
And what government would ever legalise a "currency" with so much volatility."

Ever heard of El Salvador

"I've got some Viceroy Tulip bulbs you can have for a quid."

Lol, will they fit on a usb stick?

Currently back over $19,000, but the direction's clear. I have a morbid fascination with crypto, it's a classic example of the greater fool theory.

"Pyramid definitely crumbling."

I view the collapse of crypto as common sense returning to the markets. Trillions of Dollars directed into an asset with no intrinsic value makes no sense.
Should these crypto's lose value completely, I could see them bought as souvenirs, I mean if Bitcoin/Ethereum drops to $1, I'll probably buy £100 worth and keep it in a draw on a USB stick, no doubt it will have a historic value. Personally I view crypto as completely worthless, but if I'm willing to buy some crypto at $1, no doubt there's plenty of people who'd do the same at $100 a coin, so the drop will likely be staggered. Well it's broke below $19,000, currently $18,811.40.

Dropping like a stone again. $19,183.2 as i'm typing, so broken through the £20,000 barrier. Squeeky bum time for the Whales and HODLers.

"fleccy, wouldnt have thought lloys was a good share to point out as conclusive evidence, that ones on its ar5e and at a very low point currently after a hefty decline - dont ask me how i know lol."

Lol. don't worry I wont ask you how you know, since you've used the I can't tell you how I know what I know narrative before in reference to the Ukraine War. If Lloyds are on their "ar5e ", why are they in the midst of a £2 Billion share buyback? Which I actually disagree with, sInce I would have preferred to receive a higher dividend, rather than Lloyds doing a buyback. My break even on Lloyds is 49p, easily doable in my opinion.

"Think BT could be a dropper as well if that bloke that bought the big stake recently decides to part ways, rumour was he was going to make an approach, but not so sure with all the time thats passed. If he sells up then that one will drop like a rock imv."

Drahi was never going to take over BT, he just doesn't have the cash to do it alone, and any attempted takeover of BT would come under National Security scrutiny anyway. BT's been underrated for years, it's the investment I have the most confidence in. BT are on target for £2.5 Billion annual cost savings by the end of 2025, a third of the £18 Billion debt is lease liabilities that'll reduce as the exchange closure programme progresses, and the pension deficit is heading in the right direction, also I'm expecting the Pension Trustees will go for an insurance buyout within the next four to ten years. My break even on BT is 197p, what's not to like?

Surprised you didn't mention Vodafone, which is currently underperforming and seems range bound between 120p and 130p. I'm pretty sure VOD will do ok, they generate good free cash flow, and own a lot of assets, but currently carrying a lot of debt. My break even on VOD is 146p.
None of my break even prices are a million miles away from the current prices, so I'm confident I'll make a good capital gain in the future.

"Also dont agree on your rya asertions, the other airlines are suffering far worse than mikey (in business terms), mikey senses less compotition in the future, wouldnt be surprised to see one or two other players exit the market given recent and continuing woes."

The flaw in that view, is that an Airline going bust doesn't mean it'll go out of business; The receivers would go in, there'd be restructuring, and the debt holders would either run the business themselves, or sell it as a going concern to someone else. Ryanair could potentially have more competition under those circumstances.
I'm not saying your capital's at risk invested in Ryanair, I just think you'll be holding a very long time waiting for €20. It would take a lot of pieces to fall into place to restore Airline valuations, like the end of the War, Oil prices and cost of living coming down, and people deciding to spend rather than save. The cost of living crisis is the narrative currently knocking the banks, but higher interest rates