Member Info for fleccy

"IOT will become an integral part of our lives, as will the connectivity to run it, but we'll probably just take that connectivity for granted and end up paying the same or less for it. We already pay less now for 5G than we did for 3G 10-15 years ago, despite the massive infrastructure spend to deliver it. The big winners will be true tech companies offering new products/subscriptions."

Compound, IOT isn't really about people like you and me. The home user already utilises IOT, via broadband, with products like Hive. The big money in IOT will be commercial Macro area applications, like Monitoring, Surveilance, and Control. I expect the new Income will come from Councils, Government, and Corporate. As far as IOT and Cloud, many of the new applications will be latency sensitive, so the cloud servers will need to be geographically close to the IOT equipment. Whole new applications around traffic management, driverless cars, etc, etc, etc will become viable, opening up brand new revenue streams for Telecom companies.

I better post that again, with corrections lol.

A Goldman Sach analyst just did an interview on CNBC. He was super bullish on Telecoms, and said that valuations are now at an inflexion point and to expect big growth in profits and improving sentiment going forward.

A Goldman Sach analyst just did an interview on CNBC. He was super bullish on Telecoms, and said that valuations ae now at an inflexion oint and to expect big growth in profits and dentiment going forward.

"The dividend is a joke ... they give it to you in one hand and take capital value from the other as the debts rise to pay for it."

The dividend is an anomaly, when you consider it's 9 Eurocents with Basic EPS of 7.20 eurocents, but I trust they know what they're doing. I suspect earnings are expected to rise significantly in the coming years, with the dividend rmaining at the current level. If you trust that earnings will increase, and you don't need the cash, it would make sense to reinvest future dividends back into the stock.

"The whole concern is that VOD can't actually afford the decent dividend. It has borrowed to pay it since day 1, hence the enormous accumulated losses."

Since they're paying the dividend suggests they can afford to pay it. If they couldn't afford the dividend, i'm pretty sure Read would drop it since he is a Fellow Chartered Management Accountant and a Chartered Global Management Accountant, with a BA (Hons) in Accounting and Finance.

"fleccy ive got ex div 16th june....pay date 29th of july.......dont understand your dates"

My dates were pasted straight out of the Chief Executive Statement.

https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2022-05/FY22-Press-release-Final.pdf

"Total dividends per share are 9.0 eurocents (FY21: 9.0 eurocents), including a final dividend per share of 4.5 eurocents. The ex-dividend date for the final dividend is 1 June 2022 for ordinary shareholders, the record date is 6 June 2022 and the dividend is payable on 5 August 2022"

I was going to reinvest my Lloyds dividend back into Lloyds, but I'm now thinking VOD might be a better choice, especially since I'll get some discount on the purchase price from the upcoming dividend.

Ironically, a low share price helps Vodafone in relation to the MCB buybacks.

BT down aswell. Telecom stocks valuations have been depressed by the markets for years, defying all logic in my opinion. I don't see any valid reason for the share price perfomances, over the years, but I believe the sector will see stunning price performance within the next 8 years, I don't know when the turn in performance will start though.

"When is the divi?"

"Total dividends per share are 9.0 eurocents (FY21: 9.0 eurocents), including a final dividend per share of 4.5 eurocents. The ex-dividend date for the final dividend is 1 June 2022 for ordinary shareholders, the record date is 6 June 2022 and the dividend is payable on 5 August 2022"

"debt is up not great"

With the share price being so low, the share buybacks were the obvious choice to prevent dilution. Any extra shares, that would have been created to satisfy MCB's, would have meant more dividend costs going forward.

"Net debt at 31 March 2022 was €41.6 billion, compared to €40.5 billion as at 31 March 2021. Net debt increased by €1.1 billion due to share buybacks of €2.0 billion (1,441 million shares) used to offset dilution linked to mandatory
convertible bonds, partially offset by Free cash flow of €3.3 billion less equity dividends paid of €2.5 billion."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VOD/major-shareholding-notification-j2k4bhvfl1yv1h4.html

"Europe's biggest airline has reported an easing in annual losses but warned its return to profitability remains clouded by "fragile" demand, despite discounting fares to stimulate custom.
Ryanair said net losses for the year to the end of March came in at €355m (£302m), down from €1bn over the previous 12 months as it navigated the worst of the impact from the pandemic."

https://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-still-discounting-as-it-warns-recovery-in-demand-remains-fragile-12614348

"sorry vodders gone a bit off track chatting about BT"

Not really, they're both in the same game.

"your right about Drahi he owns 18% of BT would he have to declare more purchases? as the 6 month lay off ends next month...."

Drahi's initial 12% was more interesting, as there wasn't even a hint that anyone was building a large holding. Some said he did it using derivatives, and it highlights how big players game the system using tools they've been gifted. Once the cat's out of the bag, it's a different story, but many shakey retail shareholder's bail in the meantime, while the big players accumulate on the quiet, whereas nervous retail investor's may have held if market trades were more transparent.

"Typically bought in drips and drabs, but also an over the counter deal with one or several larger holders."

Drahi bought 12% of BT without the market flagging it up. If they bought in dribs and drabs they would have had to release RNS's once they exceeded 3%. I haven't looked back through the RNS's, but I don't remember any RNS's referring to Etisalat's holdings.

Jefferies need to work on their timing.

"Jefferies downgrades Vodafone ahead of annual results on tough industry conditions"

https://wtvbam.com/2022/05/13/jefferies-downgrades-vodafone-ahead-of-annual-results-on-tough-industry-conditions/

"but good to see the manipulation theory debunked."

Stocks are manipulated all the time. It was things like Off Book trades, and Derivatives, that allowed Drahi to build a 12% stake on the quiet, and then a further 6%, increasing his holding to 18%. Maybe describing these things as manipulation is a bit misleading, since the regulators have allowed these tools to exist, giving the big players the means to hide their trades. All these trading tools do, is shift the odds in favour of the big players who have resource and cash to tilt the odds in their favour. The recent Meme stocks fiasco , involving companies like Gamestop, and AMC, is an example of Retail investor revenge; Was the Meme trades manipulation? They elevated the prices of stocks well above the fundamental value, causing a short squeeze costing Hedge Funds Billions. Anyone who suggests that stocks can't be manipulated, sorry moved in any direction as required, is being naive as there's years of historic evidence suggesting otherwise.

Good find, there are a few interesting points in the article.

"In the year to June 30 2021, the number of active BT Pension Scheme members fell from 31 to 23, while the number of deferred members fell from 73,868 to 66,953."

Some of the BT guys, who receive correspondence on their pensions may be able to clarify the above. Are the 23 active the remaining Section A members still contributing, with the deferred members being the Section Band C members? I assume the reductions are from members who've either transferred out, retired, or died.

"However, the BT scheme’s actuarial pensions deficit is expected to be higher than the accounting IAS 19 deficit, with the next triennial valuation due to take place in 2023."

We've had the conversation about actuarial vs IAS 19 before, with luck there'll be a lot more clarity in 2023.

"we pay out £2.5bn to our 200,000 pensioner members and their beneficiaries every year."

https://www.btps.co.uk/YourBTPSPension

"My view is simpler. The market remains cautious and not enough people are buying to push the price up right now.
Personally I think the ‘conspiracy theories’ that regularly get rolled out here are essentially denial driven by emotion rather than any real substance."

And yet the price is inexplicably recovering, it unlikely to be entirely due to the Morgan Stanley upgrade, since past upgrades haven't usually had a big impact, unlike downgrades which have tended to hammer the price.