Member Info for Fishinggardener

I don't mean to be negative....

I hold over 11,000 shares, so obviously I want the business to do well, and I believe in the long term robustness of the company.

I was simply surprised by a >5% downward move on a day when there was no corporate news, no spike activity of note in the bond markets, and a bit of a poor trading update from a competitor who overlaps less than 20% of the business interests and activities of Aviva.

Good Point about the DLG dividend pot, although their last dividend was just 5pps paying out £60m, which adds the missing 2p to keeping this year's dividend stable, or ticking up.

I don't know about the pref shares, as to whether these are included or excluded from the guidance remark that the Board gave in the interim results.

I'm not panicking, as car insurance (if that is the issue), makes up only a part of Aviva's broad set of interests.

I am a long term holder - have been for 15+years - and added yesterday at £6.26, but I do think that the DL acquisition will result in a pps dividend cut in the short term.

- "Now, at the current SP following yesterday's tree-shake, the forward dividend yield, as indicated on Stockopedia, is a princely 6.66%.".... Let's hope that our friends at Stockopedia have clocked both the 380 million additional shares hat are in issue, (Probably have), AND also seen the Board's future Dividend guidance (as given in the Interim Report, that for FY 25 and beyond, the dividend will be a mid single digit percentage increase based upon the £££ dividend pot payout, and not the actual historic pps figure.

National Grid did something similar c 5 years ago... They issued a pile of new shares to raise capital, but kept the Dividend pot payout the same plus annual increases, effectively rebasing the dividend.

If the numbers that I presented below are anywhere near correct, and 6.66% is your bench mark yield expectation (which is wholly reasonable), then the adjusted price for Aviva Shares cum March will rebase to £5.44.

Long term you just have to ride the storm and adjust to the new levels, ( and hope that they do a good job of developing the acquired Direct Line Business.

Short term, there is a likely 10% further to go, which may well be worth allocating some additional funds for were it to happen.

FG

Maybe the drop today is the market waking up to the fact that there is a divi cut coming.

the basis for me thinking this is as follows:

For the period 1-7-24 to 31-12-24, i.e 2H FY24, the Company paid a dividend of 23.8p on 2.68 billion shares. Total cost of dividend = £638m.

For the period 1-1-25 to 30-6-25, i.e. 1HFY25, the Company paid an interim dividend of 13.1p on 3.06 billion shares. Total cost of dividend = £401m.

Total cost of recent dividends for a 12 month period = £1.039bn.

On 1st July 25, the Company completed the acquisition of Direct Line, which was largely the reason for the additional 380million shares in issue between the figures noted above.

In the interim report, (page 8), the Company gave this guidance on future dividend payments:....

"Beyond 2025, our dividend guidance remains that we expect mid-single digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend". - clever wording!

If you take Mid single digit growth to mean 5%, then the guidance for the 12 months of FY 25 would mean a payout of £1.039 x 1.05 = £1.091bn.

Divide this payout by the 3.04billion shares in issue today, and you get 35.9p per share, of which 13.1p has already been paid as an interim.

This means that the final dividend would be 22.8p per share, which is 4% lower than the 23.8p paid for the second period of FY24.

For the pps final dividend to be (only) maintained at 23.8p, the payout would be £723m, which when added to the £401m already paid at the interim, gives a total for the year of £1.124bn, which is an increase of 8.2%....which to my mind is at the very top end of what "mid-single digit growth" means.

So, although a simple progression of recent dividend payments points to a FY25 final dividend of c25p, it is more likely that a figure nearer to 22-23p is going to be announced....

.....and it is this, in my view, which is more likely to be acting as a check on a rising SP.

Looking at it another way,...if the final dividend does come in at 22.8p, (giving 35.9p for the full year), then at a 7% yield, this supports a share price of £5.12, and at 5.5% yield an SP of £6.52.

So the correction is largely justifiable, and us long term holders will have to let a year or two pass to allow the earnings accretiative contribution from Direct Line to kick in and contribute to the distributions.

FG

PS by way of a foot note, I know that many here hold Amanda Blanc in the highest of regards, however it is unusual for a FTSE 100 company to reverse by more than 5% in a single day due to a rumour that the CEO is about to retire. PLCs would do a much better job at pitch rolling that kind of event. It is more likely that either post completion, the Direct Line business has not been as good as expected, or the investor community haven't clocked the effect of spreading the guided Dividend pot over a larger number of shares., which were issued in order to make the DL acquisition happen.

I think it is because the dividend is paid net of 20% Tax. THe payment received is near as dammit 80% of what you were expecting.

It is the same for other Property companies like Land Securities, and many of the Property REITs....PHP, LMP, SUPR, NRR and the likes.

WHat happens is that your broker should claim the tax paid and refund it to you. I Use Barclays Smart Investor platform, and that is what they do 4 times a year. Its a bit of a bore trying to keep track of it, but, having checked a few quarterly refunds which were correct to the penny, Barclays now have my confidence, and I generally accept the refunds given.

I receive the full balancing payment, as all of my stocks are held within an ISA wrap. I am not sure whether you would get a full refund if the shares are being held outside of an ISA Wrap.

THe property companies then further confuse matters by paying part of the dividend by way of what's called a PID (Which I think is a Property Income Distribution), and which is governed by the rules of REIT status, and then a secondary payment by way of normal dividend, which presumably they afford by dipping into reserves or by paying more than the Maximum allowed through the PID rules.

Not sure if ^^^ is totally correct or helpful, but I am not surprised by your experience, and therefore, in the first instance I would talk to your Broker platform and ask what their normal practise for re-claiming the tax on your behalf and paying it on to you.

FG

Okay... apologies... I should have read the RNS before responding.

I think that the £6bn refers to the NAV??... and yes all other things being equal, you'd expect the value of the business to be greater than the NAV.

All points to there being some upside in the SP.

The stand-out figure for me is the Contracted Rent Roll of £342m. That's a whopping 13.1% compared to the current market cap, and still a credible 5.7% compared to the stated "£6billion valuation".

I think we might see this going back to £1.40 - £1.60 range during 2026....particularly if the synergies translate sooner rather than later into distributable earnings.

FG

SS, - not sure where you get your figures from, but as of this morning, Company #100 in the FTSE 100 is Rightmove, with a Market Cap of £3.6billion.

PHP Market cap as of this morning is c£2.6billion.

We rank #35 in the 250 as of this morning.

So, way to go,....but if the share price rises to £1.45, at which price the yield would still be a credible 5.1%, then we're in with a shout!.

Probably more likely to happen in '27 if at all....

FG

Well, a week ahead of when I was expecting, but a very strong trading update.

Last May, the Company did pay an inaugural dividend. 0.016p per share from memory, which translates into 0.32 pence in today's, post consolidation era. That's nothing in the grand scheme of things, however it signaled intent, and it would be most unusual to decide this year, after having made such good progress that shareholders would be left out of any distribution cum this May. With a following wind we might get 0.4p per share!

But that's not why we are here.

In September '25, following the completion of the most recent acquisition, (MTM Consultancy), Cavendish upgraded their rating from 120p to a "compelling" 150p per share. The company then appointed Singer as joint broker, and their initial coverage started with a BUY on a 12 month view of 155p.

In the past 13 months the Company has completed 6 acquisitions. 4 completed in first 6 months of 2025, and 2 completed in second half of '25. That means that the guidance given today for 2025 financials, include only part-year numbers for all of these acquisitions, and therefore with 2026 including full year numbers for these 6 businesses, the growth projection for the coming year is pretty much nailed on, and that's before any further acquisitions, or organic growth from account wins (like Primark recently), or any delivery of cost savings from integrating offices and support functions.

For me the key phrase in this release is toward the bottom:

"The Board is comfortable with FY26 consensus expectations(5) of £45m of net revenue and £9.4m of Adj. EBITDA".

The Board didn't have to phrase their view of the future so emphatically, unless they were pretty sure of delivery.

On the basis that the numbers for FY26 (i.e this year), are delivered, it would not be unreasonable for a Tech Marketing business that has fully functional scale, is profitable, cash generative, and which has doubled in size over the past 24 months, to attract an EBITDA multiple of 12.

Assuming that the EOFY '26 net debt, and net of any dividend position is £0, (which I think is conservative), then the Enterprise Valuation is c£114m, or £1.11 per share. - still 30% less than where the brokers are steering us.

So, in summary, the numbers within the TU are very good, and ahead of expectations. A small dividend in May 2026 in respect of FY'25 would be welcome, and demonstrates that the Board is not forgetting the investor base, but the real value of this TU is in the Board's statement as regards trading for the current year, which will include a full year of revenues and earnings from the 6 acquisitions and account wins declared in 2025.

Risks remain over operational execution, keeping all the acquired principals "onboard", and ensuring that the largest shareholder, (Lord Ashcroft), is kept supportive and onside. ....but this is definitely a case of excellent progress.

FG

For a tech marketing c

Last week's daily volumes look as if quite a few folks had BBSN on their New Year's stock pick list. - Good Choice!

Welcome Singer's opening coverage too. It was hardly going to be bearish, however at an initial 12 month target of 155p, (That's still under 8p in "old" money), they can afford to have over called it by 10%, and we will still double our money this year.

TU in a couple of week's time should give first indications as to the actual earnings quality of last year's acquisition spree, and progress as to any operational integration.

All of the above are contributing to the recent daily tick up....

Long may it continue.

Last chance to buy in the 60s me thinks!.

DYOR and best of luck!.

FG

....a divi announcement today.

It will be interesting to see the actual effect of the AGR acquisition on the Dividends payable.

FG

I completely agree LoveJub.

This is a tiny tiny company.

In fact it is the amalgamation of 5 tiny companies, the leaders of which are all on board as part of the senior management team, and who are incentivised with a common currency of the BBSN Share Price to increase their personal wealth over the medium term.

They help their customers, (Many of which are brands for which BBSN is markedly boxing above its weight), market their products and services via a wide range of digital media. This is not some 1980s Advertising agency relying on helping a Marketing Director spend their budget on Double page spreads, and local radio advertising. The business value is in the customer relationships - they are effectively an outsourced resource, but I am sure will operate as an integral part of their customers business.

One of the companies in the group is an educational business, helping the best marketeers of tomorrow qualify for an MBA - to better themselves so that they too can make a living from being good marketing practitioners of the future. - which as an aside is a great way to build a data base of Who's who in the marketing world for the 2030s.

So, I do not agree that BBSNs destiny is on the front-line for being a casualty of AI.

I think that the clearest sign of progress, and therefore medium term value, will be in the figures within the trading update due out in January, and then the full Year results for 2025, due out in April 2026. These numbers will be the first to include a full, or nearly a full year of figures for the 5 businesses acquired in back end of 2024 and early 2025. I am confident that these will be good, as the business model is accretiative, and the management are building a sound record of delivering their numbers. The risks for these numbers not being what they should be are, in my view, more to do with claiming and booking the integrational benefits of Customer Account Development on the sales side, and integrating the back office functions and overhead on the cost savings side.

The other area of doubt that I have, is how the current shareholding is going to play out. With a market Cap of just £70m, is it unlikely that the Group will attract any meaningful institutional funds, until they are probably three times their current size. BBSN does have News Corp as a shareholder, the Green Brothers have c20%, and there is also Lord Ashcroft who owns and controls about 25% of the shares. In my view there are two issues:.. 1. Lord Ashcroft is obviously a big supporter, but he has not gotten his way when asking for representation on the board. - that for me remains unfinished business. .. and 2. for an institution(s) to come on board there will need to be a sizeable step up in scale for which there will need to be a cause e.g. another acquisition or two.

I remain overweight, a long term supporter, and do not believe that AI will destruct the value of what is a tiny business.

FG

You're absolutely right LTI!.

The 15:1 share consolidation occurred in October 2020.

I have been a long term holder of Saga for 10+ years. - part of my "investing in an ageing population" strategy that I concocted a decade ago!. My position today is that I have c 14,000 shares at an average of £6.30

Having hits its low point in 2022, (when the SP went sub 80p new money - 6p in old money), £3.15 share price today is equivalent to 21p in 2019. - and it is very welcome to see. Anybody who timed a perfect purchase is already sitting on 3 bags!.

I have just looked up my records for 2018, and can see that I made a couple of Saga Trades, selling at £2.10. That's over £31 in todays terms.

So, I am conflicted in my thinking....

People say that once in the 95% club, a share never recovers. For Saga , and making the comparison using the "old Scale", their shares were priced at over £31 in 2018, and fell to less than £1.55 in Sept 2022, qualifying them into the club,. - at that point I followed the wisdom of the old maxim, and sold most of my holding, as I could see no way back. - and looking back, that was my mistake!

But now, I can see that the recovery is in play, and the 2027 target of making £100m EBITDA is very plausible. This would justify a Market Cap of £1bn, which is twice where it is today. i.e £6. So, I can see my way to break even, but is there scope to be more adventurous than that?.

The exciting thing is that there is a lot of upside with this share, and we have "Sir Roger's" judgement, support and patience to thank for that.

But were the SP to ever get back to £31, I think that that would put Saga in a club whose membership is 1 . i.e a UK Plc which lost 95% of its value but stuck it out to regain value that surpassed its original peak.

FG

A long time ago, back in the 1980s, we used to get tax relief on some of the interest payments that we made on our home mortgages. In the evolution of this relief, MIRAS (Mortgage Interest Relief At Source), was introduced by Chancellor Geoffrey Howe, and the interest payable on up to £30,000 of mortgage would qualify for relief. Unmarried couples with joint mortgages could pool their allowances to £60,000, a provision known as Multiple Mortgage Tax Relief, thus giving themselves an advantage over married couples who only were allowed to claim 1 x £30,000 worth of relief. This remained in place until the 1988 Budget, when the then Chancellor Nigel Lawson gave forward notice that he would be ending the option to pool allowances from 1st August 1988. This lead to a period of c8 months during which unmarried couples scrambled to bring forward and close their house purchases to take advantage of the higher relief on interest at source; it being generally accepted that the rush to beat the August 1st deadline fuelled a sharp increase in house prices, particularly at the lower end of the market. - (I remember it well as my wife and I married in July 1988, prior to which we had separate properties, which we were in the process of selling to buy our first family house, - i know, how old fashioned! - and we benefitted handsomely from the short term rush of purchasers trying to meet the deadline).

Rachel Reeves has announced that in 3 and a half years time, Salary sacrifice on pension contributions is going to be capped at £2,000, which will impact many Corporate employees - impacting hardest those on above average earnings. Isn't this going to create a similar distortion in behaviour albeit over a longer time period?

Many Corporate employers offer flexible pension arrangements, incorporating administering the Salary Sacrifice aspects, but also in some form or other, matching employee contributions often up to 10% of their base salary. - possibly higher for senior management / directors.

Employees now face the opportunity to turbo charge their pension contributions for three years.

The result being increased levels of contributions going into private pensions - which has to be good news for Phoenix! (and Aviva et al).

FG

Agreed.

Trouble is, it is now six months to the next one.

I preferred this when the dividends were paid quarterly.

It dampened some of the saw tooth action in the SP.

Having said that, there has been no drop.

Probably due to;

1. the uncertainty surrounding yesterday's budget now being removed.

2. the talk of a pre-Christmas interest rate cut is now being billed as "nailed - On"!

3. 3 working weeks remaining of 2025, during which there is likely to be some form of Santa Rally.

4. The month of January looms, which is historically the best month of the 12 for capital growth, as investors enact their "new Year" strategies.

I've set an order to 'Trim and Add' at 645, as I cant see getting through the next 5 months without there being some political bumps in the road.

FG

I expect the bidding to be as lacklustre as the trading update.

This sounds like "pitch-rolling" to me... Preparing the investors for a poor performance even when it comes to disposing of the company.

£17.7m EBITDA, times a multiple of 6, which is what a PE house would bid to give them some upside, values the company at £102m. Take off the debt which at year end I expect to be at circa £24m, gives an enterprise value of £78m, or 76p per share.

If I were a buyer, I would interpret todays RNS as a reason to chi the price, and so for that reason, having been here for 3 years, I have taken the benefit of the recent rise, and got out at an overall profit of c £5k.

Best of luck to those of you who remain, but on this occasion ....a bird in the hand and all that.!

FG

Correction.... - Last Friday's RNS. ... My Error. ....but my point remains of concern.

Todays RNS is more encouraging!

FG

Today's RNS confirms that the Board and the vast majority of other independent shareholders who voted at the General Meeting, did not wish to see Lord Michael Ashcroft's representative given a position on the Board. Hmmmm.

Lord Ashcroft is, I believe our single largest shareholder. He holds approximately 24% of the shares, but he has just been rebuffed!. - which I am sure will have consequences.

I am sure that Lord Ashcroft has the long term interests of the company held utmost, however with the business being still relatively small, a single shareholder such as this can materially affect where the SP goes next. (£80m market cap vs a reported personal wealth of Lord Ashcroft in excess of £1.5bn).

What are his choices?.

He could take his ball and leave the playground and go play somewhere else. - i.e. sell, (which he'd be free to do), causing a massive overhang to the SP. There would be an element of self destruction to this, as, although I have no idea what his average price is, he has been buying until recently paying north of 80p per share.

He could carry on accumulating and buy a further 6% of the shares, which may or may not then lead to a bid for the whole group. At todays price, 6% would cost him less than £5m. - I've no idea as to whether that is plausible of not, but based upon his reported wealth, that is eminently affordable. - but would that be sensible?, as continuing success ( in the short term), would require the continued cooperation and buy-in from the Green Brothers, and the principals of the recently purchased businesses, all of whom are to an extent "locked in".

Or he takes the rebuff, and plays the waiting game....

either way, the extremes of the above, could in short order, either halve or double the share price - all dependent upon the mood and objectives of one person.

Back in the summer there was a resolution vote at the AGM which was not passed by a significant vote against, - which i believe was likely down to the voting of Lord Ashcroft, and so it sounds as if this latest request of his to have a voice on the Board, is the second instance of him trying to call the Board to heel, and is the second time that he has not got his way.

My hope is that through all of this, there is in fact some proper dialogue going on, to ensure that going forwards our largest shareholder and the Board are fully aligned. - working to a common strategy.....in it together!

This company is definitely a case of so far, so good, .....but there is so much more that can be achieved in this sector, and on the buy and build model that is currently being deployed.

For the record, I have been here for 5+ years, and am a supporter of the model and the strategy.... I hold just over 100,000 shares, at an average of c18p, and so naturally I want the business to reach its full potential, but what I am reading between the lines does not feel healthy!

FG

School boy error, but I forgot to take account of the debt in my back of an envelope valuation.

6 x Expected EBITDA of £16m = £96m

less the debt which, back in June stood at £24m, so, Enterprise value likely to be closer to £72m or 70p to 75p per share.

Upside to come from competitive bidding, and the fact that the Vietnam factory is up and running and producing. Dampened by the unknown of the effect of the recently introduced USA tariffs.

If it is still under 60p on Monday, I'll be adding!.

FG

I agree with your sentiment IP, about Opportunist investors swooping when the heavy lifting has been completed, and as others have said subsequent to your post, it is going to be down to whether or not the Board hold out for a realistic valuation as to whether or not this ends happily for us..

In that respect, having competitive bidders is definitely a good thing and will help our cause.

I too have been here 3+ years, - my highest price paid of £1.24 for a tranche in summer 2023, but having been able to trade some of the volatility on its way down, I now have an all-time average of just under 55p, on a holding of c50,000 shares, and so from that point of view returning back to the black, is welcomed by me.

However, if i were to be critical, in the 3 years that I have been invested, the board have continually posted trading results which have disappointed - there has always been one reason or another as to why the numbers have missed, and we have to wait another period. ...and it is this inability to manage city expectations which, in my view accounts for a lot of the downward drift in price from the £1.25 highs of summer '23 to the 40s in recent weeks.

After the Trump Tariffs episode, I had got to the point where I was thinking my money could work harder for me elsewhere, and so on balance, I hope that one of these bids succeeds, but at a fair valuation. .... having said that, I too think that on balance, with the VIetnam factory now up and running, and with the business trading profitably and generating cash, as it it, then, if it is sold, I am confident that it will go for a price north of £1.

Adjusted EBITDA for the current year is going to be c£15m - £16m, and with cash generation of c80 - 100% of this figure. So, a profitable business, - albeit troubled by the uncertainty of tariffs. - that has seemingly run out of steam / starting to go backwards.

So a 5 - 6x multiple of this would be bordering on a firesale. 5 x 15m is £75m. 6 x £16m is £96m. Add a bit of premium for competitive bidding, and I can see £101m being paid, which equates to £1 per share.

The story is good. The scale is fully formed, and distribution looks fit for purpose....it has just been an underwhelming ride for the past 3 years, and therefore it is probably in the best interests of the business for another team to have a go.

FG

Have you taken into account that PHP will issue c1.235billion new shares, to fund the acquisition?. (as well as come up with c£400m of cash).

Combined earnings for FY25 look to be £90m for PHP (Double that reported at the interims), and £166m for AGR. (assume same as last year), giving a total of £256m.

Currently there are 2.57billion PHP shares in issue, and a further 1.235 New shares to be issued to fund the acquisition.

So, post acquisition EPS should go from £90 / 2570 = 3.5p to £256 / 3805 = 6.7p

Obviously in the short term, there will be deal fees and integration costs to be absorbed, but once these are passed through, this deal should have a very positive effect on earnings, and, given its REIT status, the dividend payable.

I am a LTH here, attracted by the secure covenant of the tenants, and the fact that, with the aging population, demand for healthcare services is only going one way!. But I am nursing an average of 97p on 100,000+ shares and so seeing some value percolate down to the SP can't come soon enough!.

FG

So far, so good.

On the day that the Interims were published, the Shareprice rose c14% from c65p to 74p.

Since then, this morning's rise adds a further 12.5p or 17% to this total.

88p is 4.4p in "old money".

I think that we are now reflecting fair value of where the company was at, before the addition and integration of the recent 5 acquisitions completed in the past 12 months.

So, in my view we have yet to see any fruit that we might expect from the completion of 5 self-funding, earnings accretive bolt-ons, that have expanded the senior team, who are all vested in an equal common purpose, and which have brought some top-drawer brands onto the customer base.

I also particularly like the Mini MBA acquisition, as this taps into the budding, up-coming marketeers of tomorrow. Brave Bison now has all their contacts, and knows which ones are the stars, and should be able to track and help them through their careers as practising marketeers.

Market Cap is now approaching £90m. No doubt, all involved, are probably delighted with this progress, but they mustn't let it go to their heads. The real value will be delivered upon successful integration, and development of the client base across all strands of digital marketing that we can now help with.

In recent times, WPP reached a market cap of £12billion. I know that making a statement like that, is like running a successful convenience store, and comparing ourselves to Sainsburys, but it just highlights the opportunity here. The Glitzy billboards, Blockbuster TV Ads, full page Ads in the National Newspapers, and Massive printed DM campaigns have been replaced with their digital equivalents, and our team are well on the journey to becoming an international digital marketing agency.

The market is global and huge.

This SP could reasonably double based on the near-term delivery of value from the deals that have already been done. If we manage to achieve this, BBSN will still be only a medium sized enterprise. But in the context of the valuations achieved in the heady days of full-service marketing agencies, this business has a lot of headroom to develop into. - which is very exciting.

GL and DYOR,

FG