Member Info for Fishinggardener

He hasn't sold any shares.

If you compare todays RNS with the one back in May his purchases took him to 112,238,119 shares (24.01% holding).

Today's RNS shows that he holds the same number of shares, but presumably some share have been issued (Options exercised?) such that his holding fell to 23.99% and in doing so crossed a reportable boundary.

So, to answer your question - er he has, but he hasn't!.

FG

Not many companies issue a management LTIP plan, which provokes an 8% uplift in the current share price.

In short, this is a pretty good plan, albeit to the fruity side for the two Green Brothers, and to the exclusion of the Finance Director and the other principal acquired Business Leaders.

This plan is no different to many, in that upon the ultimate success (which is capped), the Green Brothers each earn £7.8m (so c£12.5m in today's money), in return for achieving shareholder value of approximately 2.4x what it is today. The LTIP would reward the Greens, over and above the £25m that their current shareholding would increase by given that they currently own c18% of the company.

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So, they are asking for the success dice to be loaded in their favour....for them to be pushed further up the "Share of Success" queue, when the time to realise value comes upon us. In approximate terms, and all other things remaining equal / as they are today, they are asking in return for taking a £100m company, (in which they currently own c£18m), to being one which the market values at c£244m by 31st December 2028, that their holding within the business increases to c£60m. (i.e. approximately 25% of the total). (18% of £244m plus the £15.6m reward). It is what it is, in that the timing of their progress to date, and the near term trajectory means that it makes for a serious value creation opportunity for them.

However, on the whole, I am supportive, but I would make the following comments:.

1) good to see that they have done this most likely in consultation with Lord Ashcroft, as he already owns c25% of the shares, and the plan has been crafted with the input of c70% of the existing shareholder base.

2) Slightly concerned that the FD has not been included - even if only to a lesser extent. Generally speaking, you could argue that FDs are not front-line when it comes to creating value - however if the business reaches a market cap of £250m her role and contribution will play an important part.

3) also surprised to see that this does not include the principals of the acquired businesses, although you could argue that they have their Value Creation opportunity built into the terms of their S&P and Service agreements.

4) good to see that the scheme is capped overall, - albeit at a price that would put BBSN into a "bluebird" class of its own for me:, and also that there is a minimum threshold of SP improvement, below which the LTIP does not pay out.

5)Although dubbed a 3 year plan, the first 5 months of the 36 have already elapsed, and so, today's increase aside, effectively they have to achieve their goals in 5/6ths of the period.

To be clear, I am in the 30% of shareholdings that were not consulted, but even so, on the whole it is a good plan, and I say "Bring it on! - and best of luck"

FG

Two thoughts:....

If you wish to be exposed to Mobile Tech and Mobile Money across the African continent, then you could always invest in Vodafone, who don't have an Indian parent, (but do have 'Europeans' in the Chair and at CEO). THey have a significant presence in Africa, and compete in some markets with AAF. - Their "boat" will argruably rise on the same incoming tide of growth as AAF's. Its just that their progress is buried in the £billions of revenues that they report, but the numbers are there if you are prepared to go digging.

Secondly, (and this may be me being naive in the extreme), but maybe the parent Barthi Company just wants a bigger piece of the AAF action if there is an impending significant rerate on the cards. Buying the remaining 20% at todays share price would cost £2.25Billion, and be a difficult road to navigate. Buying the additional 12% that they bought this week, might just be a Mega "trade" on their part. Hold the greater holding for a year or two, and then sell the shares back to the market when the anticipated rerate jump in value has been achieved.

I think one poster on here Mary B, calls it "add and Trim".... but its just on a much larger scale with more zeros!.

FG

Having watched the recording, I would say that the Presentation is definitely worth a view; and that for a business the size of BBSN, it is well put together and communicated.... - even for a marketing company, whom you'd expect to be good at these things.

I think that the model is great. I loved the bit about how the Greens got the Mini MBA founder to do the convincing of the System 1 founder, that swapping his big share of a "small pie" for a smaller share in a larger pie was, strategically a sound move. - The finding of additional relevant Business Principals, who want to "sell" their achievement to date, but who also have some runway remaining to make further contribution to growth of their business within the framework of a larger organisation, is key to taking the BBSN group from £48m revenue up into £100m+. ... In this regard with 5 acquisitions under their belt, the Green Brothers are establishing a sound track record.

If they can rinse and repeat this for each of the coming 3 - 5years then they will develop a formidable global marketing agency.

FG

That's a handy update BM, - Thank you.

I wasn't able to attend the Video presentation yesterday, but will try and catch up with it later.

Was any view expressed during the presentation/ questions as to the Board's relationship with the dominant shareholder, - Lord Ashcroft?.

I have noted the recent comments on here that to some, they see it as reassuring to have such support, but for me it is the one thing that niggles me about my investment taking at some point, an unwelcome extraordinary loss.

His shareholding is not far off the levels of having to declare his hand as to whether or not he wants to make a bid for the whole business, which presumably will be good for the SP, but my greater concern is the downside of he and the Green Brothers not seeing eye to eye over the strategic direction of the business, and he deciding to put his in-profit holding up for sale. It is worth c£25m, and so would take a bit of digesting by the market!. I think that it was he driving the aborted bid for The Mission Group, this time last year, (where, with hindsight it looks like we dodged a bullet there). Personally, I prefer the "grow within your means" approach, rather than betting the ranch on something that was 6 times our size.

The fact that he has continued to accumulate shares, I guess, should be taken as a positive, but, were there to be a disagreement to the point that he wanted to exit, then his volume represents c9 months of daily trading volumes! Manageable, no doubt, but a massive distraction to what is otherwise a real success story.

FG

Outside of the core numbers reported today, there were a few other items which caught my attention, which are noteworthy in helping investors gain confidence in this share being "a keeper".

1. Barc has already mentioned the dividend, which itself is a rare thing amongst AIM listed stocks. Yes, at 0.44p is is barely a yield of 0.5%, and therefore on one level it is irrelevant, but to me it runs deeper than just being an obscurity. Firstly, I believe all companies should strive to pay a dividend. it shows respect for the shareholder part of a companies stakeholders, and underscores the fundamental that shareholders should share in the success of a companies financial performance. It is a way of keeping shareholders for the journey. Secondly it is a suitable currency for keeping the acquired principals focussed on their contribution to the new enlarged group that they have become part of. The Principals of the acquired businesses have gone from being entrepreneurs, where they were the boss of their own business, to now having to report into a Group, and participating in dividend distributions in my view, helps/suits the psyche of a business owner.

2. In FY25, BBSN completed three acquisitions. each of these made a part year contribution to these results. In FY26, these three businesses will be operating for the full 12 months, which itself provides an engine for growth.

3. Interesting to see that "AI" has crept into the activities report. BM thought that AI might be a vulnerability to the Group, but it looks as if they have embraced it to enhance their customer offering - not sure how they are monetising their efforts on this, but good to see it in there.

and finally 4. The appointment of Yvonne Monaghan as a NED and chair of the Audit committee seams a timely appointment, but also a demonstration that the Green Brothers, and other Board Members want to shape this business in their way. It was only in October '25 that the BoD were urging us to vote down on a motion brought to a General Meeting of the company by our largest shareholder, Lord Ashcroft, for one of his people to be appointed to the Board as a NED. A motion that failed to get any significant number of votes other than those of Lord A. It may well be, ( I don't know), that one of Yvonne's previous roles was working with/for Lord Ashcroft, but if it wasn't then I hope that her appointment has been done with his "blessing", otherwise the BoDs actions in making her appointment could be construed as a bit of a snub. In my view, with c25%+ of the shares under his control, Lord Ashcroft single handedly has the most ability to influence the share price, (both adversely and positively), and therefore the value of all our investments.

FG

PE is only massive when compared to the Pre-tax Profit, after the investment in System 1 has been charged to the P&L. As have (and rightly so), all the exceptional costs of integrating acquisitions, and impairments for parts of the acquired businesses assets that BBSN deem to be of lesser value.

In the Build phase of Buy and Build the growing Adjusted EBITDA is a better indicator of assessing the Enterprise Value - IMHO

FG

These results for FY25 are top grade.

"Well done" and "Thank You" to the Green Brothers and the wider leadership team.

The best bit about company RNS releases is that they are factual documents, designed to inform, and are not allowed to mislead. BoDs are not allowed to ramp or advise, but they can still present a view of the trajectory and use language, from which the reader can then spot some bomb sized hints as to where this business is heading.

For anybody in any doubt as to why to invest at this stage in a relatively small business (Market Cap <£100m) going places, then take a look at the second table of numbers in the RNS that presents the 5 year track record of what this management team have achieved. They have every reason to be proud of this performance, - they are a factual public record - and I the trajectory is set for mor upward progress to come.

The "Outlook" is the bit that I like best..... - not a statement of fact, as it is the BoDs best view of the near term future, but gives a big steer as to where this business will be in 12 months. They are not required to offer such numerical guidance as to future performance, nor at multiple levels of the reporting matrix, but the fact that they do, gives me great heart at least for a 12 month view.

- FY 26 Revenue up 31% to nigh on £45m. (Q1 revenue is "expected" to be 58% up yoy, and given that Q1 ended 30 days ago, then I would expect this to be nailed on supported by the management accounts). That means that for the remaining 9 months of the year, the mountain is by no means as steep a climb as 31% may suggest)

- Adj EBITDA up to £9.4m. Using a Forward Multiple of 10x (conservative), and adding in £8m of net EOY CIB (again conservative), this gives BBSN a FY26 EV of £102m, or 91p per share. (£1.08 if you use a 12x multiple).

The one figure which is not so "stella" is the increase in EPS for the coming year up from 6.9pps to 7.1pps, and that is due to the relatively large issuance of shares in the year just completed....and it is for that reason that i say that there needs to be a relatively short period of "snowball packing", to make sure that the 5 acquisitions completed in the past 24 months are fully integrated, and contributing to the EBITDA margin in an accretive manner. (remember that two of them were loss making at the point of acquisition).

However before the next year is out, there probably needs to be another £8m to £15m complementary acquisition, (principally funded out of cash resources, - but some paper too if the SP is north of £1), to keep the Buy and Build Momentum going, and to effectively lay the foundations for a return to EPS double digit growth in FY27 and beyond.

I remain a supportive, (and overweight) LTH.

FG

PS more musings to follow later!.

Not for the foreseeable future....

From what I know, BBSN cover quite a broad base of the marketing mix, in terms of different sub disciplines,..e.g. data processing, skills training, digital marketing, brand advisory. etc.

Advertising and marketing at the end of the day is a people based business, with real people customers trying to position their brands on Digital platforms so that real people get to see them...

I might be the new Colour TV owner, who cant foresee the need for video recorders, - they'll never take off - as "what's the point of recording a program when you can sit down to enjoy it in real time"!, but I think that in finessing marketing strategies, which is largely at the heart of BBSN's offering, my belief is that it will remain a people based offering.

Corporate Marketing Directors (or CMO's as they are now called), will continue to exist, and they will need hep in spending their budgets!, in the belief that if they don't, a competitor will be talking to their customers.

Long way to go on the BBSN story, and besides, I think that any slow down will be evident in the growth slowing up gradually rather than coming to an abrupt cliff edge.

Hope that helps!

FG

Fingers crossed indeed!.

Time to load up...

I can't foresee any surprises in the FY25 financial performance from the trajectory of recent results, and the ample sign posts provided in recent trading updates.

Based on trading fundamentals, the growth trajectory over a 5 year period, and a valuation of 10x EV, this business is worth well north of £1 per share.

I am a big fan of the "Buy and Build" model.... particularly if you are able to keep the acquired leadership team motivated, vested and aligned with the broader objectives of the larger "mothership".

We need just a steady flow of digestible, value enhancing acquisitions, paid for out of cash generation; not some monstrous bid for a larger outfit funded by dilutionary equity issues whilst not commanding a full value Share price.

Keeping check and managing the ambitions and "agendas" of the acquired principals, and the major shareholder, to me, are the areas of biggest risk to this share not fulfilling its full potential, but I have to say, so far, so good, and I remain an overweight LTH.

I've added this morning, as my take is that this wont be in the 70s (or 80s for that matter), for much longer.

FG

Good Results - I hope that we look back at these figures in a few year's time and see them as just a stepping stone on the pathway to a full and sustainable recovery.

If present management hit their own pre-tax profit target of £100m by FY '30 (4 years from now), then the EBITDA will be north of £200m, (DA is currently c£90m, and not likely to change that much, and finance costs are largely set until 2031). 10x £200m gives a valuation of £2bn, or c£14 per share. - which incidentally is approximately where this share price was c8-9 years ago, pre - share-split, and before the period of poor management, and COVID).

Next stepping stone should be for 12 months time, where I will be looking for Debt down to £400m, EBITDA of £160m. - leverage of 2.5x. - That itself, in rough terms, supports a share price of c£10.50 by this time next year.

So, whether or not dividends are restored next year, in my view by April '27, there is still a potential 60% capital growth upside in the SP., and in my view, the latter is more likely.

Alnwick, i do agree with your concerns about Trumpflation, but last time I checked, SAGA doesn't use much fertiliser in their ships, but more seriously, thankfully our target market is the one cohort in the UK that is growing in size, ,....and who have the more robust levels of disposable income, ... and who will readily pay to escape on holidays.

Not ramping,.... yes , I am invested and have a current break-even point of c£8.50, but like others on here I have tried to trim and add back on a 5% dip, only to be foiled by what has been a consistent re-rate trajectory.

To those regretting that they "missed out", I would say that there is still plenty of logic supported headroom for this to double in price to £12+ on a 3 year timeline, but I also accept that sometimes taking the tempting profits resulting from every £1 increase in the SP along the way can sometimes prove irresistible.

I will add on any dips below £5.75 and will try and sit on my selling hands and resist any further trimming until I am back in profit on my current 6,500 holding.

FG

.....just incase folks think that I cant add up, I posted and then on reread saw that I had deleted a line....

Final 10% is in small caps that are profitable and cash generative e.g. BBSN and GMR.

FG

Yes I'm retired.... if that's what it is called. Jeremy Hunt used to call it "Economically inactive", which used to really upset me!..... TBH, I have never been busier!.

Been an armchair investor for years, basically building a decent portfolio within family ISA Wraps!...General portfolio is split across

60% in high yielders - Nailed on DIvi over 6% minimum,

20% on FTSE 100 Mixed income - Dividend 3.5 - 6% and good chance of 10% capital growth in the year e.g. Vodafone, and

10% on recovery stocks e.g. SAGA MKS and AAF, where there is a real chance of 35 - 50% upside in the sp, but little or no DIvi. and

Yes I have holdings in UK Banks (NWG - I consider to be the best for the next 12 -24 months), HSBC - Stunning recent performance and good hedge against UK economy. CBG - a bet....sorry investment... on that business getting back to Normal, Small Amount in VANQ in the belief that there is a recovery underway and some in INVP and LLOY. Not a fan of BARC!).

Also well invested in the usual Financial suspects of LGEN, SDLF, AV., and MNG. Couple that seam under the radar here are CSN (FTSE 250 - pays a solid 8% at todays price, and CLIG, (again another 8% payer) - which is like a boutique MNG).

Best of luck with your investments

FG

Put these on your list .... The percentage is the forward looking yield at today's share price. ....I am invested in all of these.

CREI (Custodian Property) - Regional commercial assets - 7.1% paid quarterly

BBOX ( Tritax Big Box) - huge warehouses and data centres - 5.75% paid quarterly

BLND (British Land) - FTSE 100 - premium property spaces - 6% paid twice a year.

LAND (Land Securities) - FTSE 100 - premium SE Based Commercial spaces - 7% paid twice yearly.

GRI (Grainger) - Large residential landlord to the Professional market - 5.25% paid twice yearly.

LMP (London Metric) - SE England focus including the owner of a growing number of Premier Inns - 6.75% paid quarterly.

SUPR ( Supermarkets) - Tenants comprise the big 5 retailers - 7.6% paid quarterly.

THRL (Care Homes) - 5.75% paid Quarterly .

Then there are others that I am invested in NRR ( New River), RECI, and RGL, which pay higher percentage dividends, but in my view are a bit more risky and "second tier".

Finally TFIF also offers a good quarterly dividend c9.8% but they invest in a range of UK and European asset backed securities.

If you spread your capital across the above mentioned stocks / REITs, you get a good spread of geography, property use, and tenant quailty, and you should be able to average a 7.5%+ income, mostly paid quarterly, so prices are not to volatile.

FG

If you Google the question as to the tax point for Dividends received, the answer comes back as being on the date that the cash is received.

So, if by the time that the NWG dividend cash is paid, your shares are within an ISA, then I would imagine that the cash received is protected by the ISA wrap, and not subject to Tax.

To me, this makes sense, in that the Ex-Dividend date marks the point at which you qualify for the dividend. But in most cases, the Board of most large PLCs reserve the right to not pay out any declared dividends if exceptional circumstances prevailed. (This happened - most annoyingly - for many FTSE 100 Companies in the period March / April 2020 when COVID lockdown measures were put in place. LGEN was a note worthy exception - but that's now by the by).

So, technically declared dividends are an intent to pay. Tax gets calculated at the actual date of payment. I guess this leads to some conjecture then as different platforms pay dividends into client accounts at varying levels of punctuality!

But, if I were you, I would make the tax point the date that the funds hit your account. If this is wrong, then I would mitigate my position by being "consistently wrong". i.e. don't apply one interpretation for one stock, and the opposite for another.

If the amount that you are pondering is larger than £5,000, then I'd get some advice. If not, I suspect that it would be a case of asking for forgiveness!.

FG

I agree SR....

I also agree with Schwee's comment about the Company being rather generous with the reallocation of the shares bought back in the market, to share schemes for the staff. I wish that they would just cancel them, and properly realise the value of the exercise. Yes we need a motivated workforce, but I am sure that they will be well paid and get annual bonuses too. These are the main currencies for rewarding staff. The rewards from value creation, should go to the shareholders who have risked the capital.

But, to your point Sunday Roast, I don't understand the fall in SP from high forties to low thirties, which is supposedly attributable to the changes last year in minimum stakes in the UK, when 75% of our revenues come from outside the UK, and are not affected by this change. The company seems for have taken effective action to restore the UK revenues, and yet neither of this nor the increasing mix of non-UK revenues have replenished the SP.

10x EBITDA plus cash in bank, gives an enterprise value of £167m. This equates to an SP of 62p. It is quite possible that an aggressive acquirer will need to pay more than 10x.

Other than being a means for financing the Staff Share hand-outs, the Share buy backs have been pretty ineffective. I would rather see a dividend, - but I have been saying this for 3+ years now!.

This share owes me nothing, in that historic gains made from riding the peaks and troughs more than pay for the current value of the 125,000 shares that I have, but in a way, that's not the point.... If it doesn't get back to a fairer valuation, then it might be time to re-cycle the capital elsewhere., but intrinsically, I feel that this share will reward patience, and that is the only reason why I am still here.

FG

Prospect of Oil price going up??... Filling up even boutique sizes cruise ships could cost £100,000 per day. Sailing 300 days per year, with a 10% increase in fuel costs would swipe £3mill off the bottom line.

Just a guess.

FG

The agreed offer is for 590p per share, and allows for up to 22p to be paid in the normal course of business, in dividends ahead of completion.

42% of the shares have irrevocably said "yes" to the deal, and so it is as near nailed on to go through.

15p of the 22p dividend was also announced yesterday, and is payable on 23rd April. SP goes ex Div on 12th March.

The remaining 7p looks like the intent for the FY 26 interim dividend which usually goes Ex Div in August, and this looks to be at a level that is c10% up on last year.

The deal is expected to complete in Q4 2026, and so its framework basically allows for the current shareholders to take the distribution rewards from this years business, - which is absolutely correct .

I would normally bail at the first instance when these kind of deals are announced, on the basis that a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. (as was in the recent case of JUST, and SPECS, and KCOM in the distant past).

The upside is capped, as it is unlikely that a rival bid would succeed, given the core (I guess Family) shareholding has pledged their support for this deal.

But, there is 15p coming within the next 4 weeks for shareholders who hang on which on a capital sum of £5.88 is 2.55%, or 33% annualised. Normally, a share price, on the day of going Ex DIvi, would shed a similar value to the up-coming Dividend, but in this case the downside is pegged by the price offered in this deal.

So, for my modest holding, I intend to hold and collect the 15p dividend, because after that has been paid, the SP should reflect only a small discount reflecting the "opportunity cost" of having £5.90 per share tied up in cash for 9 months.

I believe that the Family shareholder group have done a good deal here for all shareholders, and it allows the Group to move on whilst giving them a proper exit. But from here on in, to my mind the upside is now limited, the down side is limited, and so it is a simple task of taking a view as to whether to hang on for the dividend payments or not.

FG

....that the Full Year results come with a maiden divi...

I don't see the point of year on year piling up the cash in a corner of the balance sheet.

It is now 8 years since the Company made its first trading 'E' BITDA, (as opposed to 'L' BITDA, and has declared ever increasing cash positive results for 5 years on the trot.

What is the plan to return any reward to the investors??.

FG

...are the opinion formers of tomorrow.

If Brave Bison do a good job of equipping the Marketing Professionals of multi-national organisations with CV enhancing qualifications, then the Company will develop a great database of Marketeers who, if not already, in time, will be budget holders, and the "graduates" will hopefully become proud ambassadors for where they learnt their trade.

Cash in the till this year, repeat business if MiniMBA do a fantastic job, and the development of a strategically valuable asset for the future.

FG

FG