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lol i've allowed $1B for expenses.
I'm pinning everything on B-2-0's theory. Certainly seems plausible and now GG are just making a big political play of it all in the media. Technically all true. The 1% isn't in play anymore as under 50/50 ownership in new company, the 99% is now the 100% of the PSA that's being withdrawn under breach of contract. Understandably FRR and ZZ aren't happy with their name being dragged through the mud so are fighting for their reputation more than anything despite the big payday at the end of it all.
so the question is, if our share 50% has been transferred to the investor, when we getting our payout??
i think GG are just using their win (the 99% and partnership in new company) as an political PR opportunity to show Georgians the success they have had ahead of elections. The PSA notice i think is probably (i hope!!) more just the fact its so far removed from the original that the need a new PSA (new company, new area, new sharing rights, different expiration dates etc). It won't help FRR relationships but do they need relationships with FRR?? The FRR share in the new company is being sold to BP if we are led to believe the rumours so again GG can take the credit for this. I am however concerned that there will be some pro Russian politicians that see Zaza becoming the most powerful man in Georgia after this - can't remember his % holding but any % of $10B is alot of power.
perhaps its as simple as the need to terminate the old PSA to draw up a new one with new owners (BP & GG), with more GG favorable terms and with the expiration date pushed out to 2050. Just a paperwork exercise. Why would GG let FRR move the asset to another entity otherwise - they could have taken it for nothing under Hope ownership. This would all make perfect sense if it weren't for all the supposedly quoted comments coming from GG that aren't particularly friendly!
which all ties in the b-2-0 theory of "B12 split, FRR Western to hold all currently proven assets, Eastern to be returned to Gocg ( Basin edge, shallow fields). FRR Western jointly owned by FRR/GOGC, however, FRR transferred holding to investor (BP as part of deal. 2020 the alliance is initiated)" This means FRR & GOGC won't have to work with each other as clearly those relationships have been shredded. Sell it for few hundred million, pay off the debts and give the SHs a penny for each of their shares...still dreaming but the this theory makes perfect sense to me given whats going on! The sticking part now might be the sell price as oil price has crashed
They wouldn't have spent 100ks on US influencing if they were trying to do SHs over. Still think we'll come out of this with something
Absolutely in full agreement here. GG were always going to come out with a bigger slice so could always claim it as a win. Few posts over the past few months show that these wild west governments go after a bigger slice once the discoveries have been made. Its arbitration and GG were never asking for the full amount so for that reason i'm glass half full still. Also interesting nothing has been of made of it by the twitter bashers although i'm sure they are now targeting another company!!
Does B-2-0's theory stack up??
posted on 1st Jan
"B12 split, FRR Western to hold alll currently proven assets, Eastern to be returned to Gocg ( Basin edge, shallow fields). FRR Western jointly owned by FRR/GOGC, however, FRR transferred holding to investor (BP as part of deal. 2020 the alliance is initiated). Bushido B20"
Why begin settlement talks with hope if the arb wasnt at least heading towards a 50:50 deal. All good signs imo
i agree regdik...the arb will fall somewhere in the middle so will still require the two parties to work together at least in the short term while BP buy out our stake and take the fields on (according to B-2-0 :-))
this may well come down to the fact that Zaza with his shareholding will become the most powerful man in Georgia and not Ivanishvili!!
along the same lines as me MP but with better detail :)
i'm sure i'll be corrected if i'm wrong but are we not just dealing with all the media speculation that is throwing up old theories and rumours not helped by the US letter bringing it all to light. I thought we had uncovered a document that suggested FRR and GG had set up a joint company (FRR US if i recall) and that Zaza is on record saying there is one final detailed to be ironed out in Jan - ie the date of the license. Then again the US letter may have been required as things have fallen apart...who knows!! Still positive and an offer is an offer than means we should get something even after OMF and the lawyers have been paid!!
We may well have to pay tax if it's a private deal but this would be the best scenario as even if they were tax free how many would hold their nerve to ride the ups and downs to 20p or beyond if we were back on the markets?? This dream scenario takes all that stress out of trying to maximise your investment...nice to dream lol
and will add i don't think GG would have signed joint sharing agreement (if this is what it is) if they though hope was still fighting for it - he will be paid off you would have thought
worth saying it twice ;-)...thanks for your view. i agree. Just need to tie up the 5% and we should hear what's been going on and where we stand!
yes looks outside the Frontera umbrella but still called Frontera and with ZM and SN as shareholders in the same position as us they will see us right...
I'd prefer 50/50 on the asset...means we'll have no issue getting an extension on the license or any future license. Maybe anti competitive going forward or maybe just a short term JV while they get bought out and frontera moves on to Moldova and Ukraine
so if this is the case as in sharing the asset then think most would take that! we just divide MPs figures by 2 and we still have a serious multibagger!!
This has to be what we're waiting for. No license extension or jv/buyout can happen until the remaining 5% of the company or asset has been finalised. The liquidation will allow the 5% to go the GG and everything else will fall into place