Member Info for Fevertreeman

I'm not trying to scare anyone; if you'd worked in investment management, finance or corp treasury, you'd know that £ will need to be raised before end of year to meet cash needs of the business and meet Auditors requirement as a Going Concern. In the absence of any other revenue i.e. signing some big deals, there is no other option. So yes calculus may change if Newland lands some deals, but FY 24 was forecast as £6.4m 7 months ago, and is now £2.9m...you see how good he is at predicting revenue!

Well let me give you a clue:

1. Hasn't stopped them in the past

2. Cash& Cash Equivalents 30 June 2024 = £17.9m ; Cash & Cash Equivalents 31 Dec 2024 (from last week's TU) est £12.6m....so in 6 months they have burnt through £5.3m despite lower cost base... So cash burn of 30% over 6 months. Taking similar cash burn rate come June we are at £8.8m, but that ignores fact that they are ramping up headcount, so that fig could easily drop another £1 -1.5m...Lets say they have £7m cash end June...you can see that they run out of cash in December..

it would be fabulous to think that investors now fully buy into the potential for angle, and the share price get sustained traction. a depressing tu (with revenue below expectation, goalpost moving on free cashflow, etc) has been saved by excitement around illumina rns that newland is pumping for all he's worth.

ultimately, the success of agl will be judged by commercial contracts & collaborations that generate revenue & free cash, and i'm afraid after years of disappointment from newland & griffiths, there is huge distrust about their abilities to grow the business successfully. anyone who has been a shareholder for more than 5 mins will know all about the litany of downgraded forecasts; misses on numbers; clinical trials announced to great fanfare then quietly dropped or never mentioned again; changes in strategic direction etc.

so while i applaud the illumina news, what is needed now is

- evidence of sustained adoption of parsortix via many more commercial deals

- positive news from az & eisei

- credible communications that investors can trust

- an assessment around revenues, free cash flow, cash needs, and move to profitability from newland that isn't junked weeks or months later.

beyond the expectations set by newland around illumina az & eisei, the immediate cncern has to be cash burn & funding. they will need to pull the trigger on another funding round. the question is when , how much and at what price. the last raise was in june at 15p which really ****ed off the market as it was accompanied by yet another revenue miss for 2023 . newland had forecast £3m (it was £2.2m). funny enough, he didnt then pull back forecast for 2024 of revenues going up 3x to £6.45m. yet 6 months later , he junked that forecast & revenue forecast bloody halved to £3 -£3.6m. and guess what last week tu reset revenues to £2.9m, well below top end of the range and below their own low end est....so watch this space......newland likely to raise

Couldn’t agree more. SP hit by Lack of liquidity, MM not wanting to hold stock on books, & general small cap malaise.

Fundamentally, the business seems in better shape than it’s been for quite a while. If you look across the piste at UK plc TUs & results posted, the theme of customer caution, delayed orders etc is rife. Well done Rachel Reeves for choking off growth by annihilating trust and confidence in the productive part of the economy - how not to run an things……I view the message here as broadly positive for 2025; the acquisition of Affini looks a great move, which is helping diversify revs and derisk it. QRO sounds like anticipated orders for mobile system haven’t come thro as quickly as anticipated & Rail continues to be extraordinarily slow to get moving.

TU muted but mildly encouraging for 2025. YE ‘24 affected by project phasing & delays, so out of their control. Better vibes message around current year; debt down; so nothing to be negative about,

I was merely reporting what was on the screen. Brava for the announcement of the Illumina webinar. I fervently want AGL to succeed and break out of the destructive pattern of hype, hope, & disappointment that, for too long, has characterised the Co's performance under Newland & Griffiths.

Its closing on 3 years (May 2022) that FDA finally approved Parsortix after much delay. Since then, Newland has repeatedly hyped & hollered & continually raised cash, but failed to deliver any sustained commercial traction. Remember that £100m of s/holders support has been provided and yet FY24 results will be just £2.9m in revs well below their own slashed forecasts, and the cash burn remains huge.

So forgive me if I & others remain very sceptical of Newland's puffery, which too often presages yet another discounted cash raise.....If he gets AZ & Eisai signed up for next stage trials then all well and good but the seasoned operators among us want to see more than this sort of RNS as evidence that Newland can actually manage this business fro profit and growth

No bid for a measly £1k and on offer at 15.5p

Remember this is an RNS highlighting a 60 minute presentation ( albeit with a major name)! Newland doing what he does best imo

Collaborations are fabulous, and those with long memories will know how many times Newland has put out these types of announcements in the past ( only to have no commercial follow up or traction). So bravo for this, but I’m afraid hardened Anglers want Newland to announce deals with hard £/$/¥ figures attached. And to date we’ve had none. Also worth noting that Newland’s trading update had no forecast numbers for coming year which isn’t exactly helpful. And watch this space for Griiifths suddenly announcing another cash raise on the back of these announcements which will be sure sign of can kicking

Bar useful name-checking in Nature, accompanied by concerted PR push by Nero Newland on ProInvesotr website spouting usual nonsense & Daily Mail's tip (retial investors fave, pushed no doubt by comms firm). And at the end of all that sp recovered part of what it has lost after the Trading Update, which I should remind listeners moved the goal posts yet again (1) telling us FY24 will be below the Co's heavily revised down range of £3m-£.6m as per end Sept (2) Reneging on cashflow positive 2H statement (3) Utter hype & nonsense about Stage 3 trials when Newland is still grappling with results of Stage 1 with AZ & Eisei......God knows we all want this to succeed, and the product clearly works, but Newland has consistently failed to deliver, and until he does, it will continue to be a trading instrument rather than an investment. Given how many people were buyers in the run up to FDA approval.....and all the way down...very few holders are in profit

Is all fine and dandy, but Newland knows darn well that this doesnt produce revenues, reduce cash burn, or drive deals. After the rubbish Trading Update, I was fully expecting Newland to try some damage limitation...and so it transpired. Just remember that yesterday they told us (1) FY24 revs would be £2.9m (below Interims forecast range £3- £3.7m back end of Sept which remember was was itself half what Newland had originally forecast AND just £700k more than the £2.2m achieved in 2023. (2) Positive Cashflow forecast from Griffiths also slashed.

Alternative view is that Newland is on the cusp of yet another dilutive raise given the still frankly phenomenal cash burn for a company that is barely any revs.

You should compare the TU with end Sept Interims. The management of AGL’s relations with s/holders is simply dreadful. Newland is solely responsible for the continued failure to get even close to proper forecasting. Remember the £3-£3.6m range for Year was itself a massive revision down, and this clown couldn’t even hit the low end of his own estinate

Beyond farcical that Agl’s house broker has slashed its TP from 70p to 40p. As a former FM let me share what that actually tells us:

1. That Berenburg have been also led a merry dance by the dissembling duo of Newland & Griffiths

2. That Nero & his sidekick have mo idea about how to gauge revenue generation, or cashflow so just make it up literally

3. That this update completely erases the relatively positive Interims update, shifting the goal posts yet again. The £2.9m revenue fig is actually BELOW the range given end Sept (£3m-3.6m) and if you go back to the Interims you’ll that they had £1m revs (with another £1.9m already booked). In other words it would appear that Newland generated NIL revenue during whole of Q4. CASHFLOW positive was 2H in Sept now sometime in 2026

4. Newland’ s childish hype extends to talking about Phase 3 as if any one is fooled!!! Newland has yet to have results Phase 1 trials with AZ & Eisei and yet he has the stupidity to start punting hopeless comments about major P3 trials

What a great update - no b.s. just a sensible sober assessment of where they are. Pleased to see that the numbers were ahead of analyst predictions & that yr end debt was also lower than some of the forecasts. I think Cox has now got the measure of the business - world class IP; strong R&D ; well-invested manufacturing; tight customer relationships . However,. I think he also realises that the culture needs energising, that too much management time & resources was directed to Rezource; there wasnt enough focus on core business ; over reliance on Nike relationship/footwear is not healthy. Am pleased that he is out of the traps quickly with a CMD - high time they had one....

You are completely wrong - compare the 2 statements . Griffiths again moving goalposts. Expect yet another cash raise now

Newland AT IT AGAIN…he & Griffiths just cannot be trusted.

Just compare statement made 3/4 months ago. They are incapable of providing proper guidance . Not once had Newland actually met his forecasts. It is getting absolutely ridiculous that these 2 continue to mislead their investors. Do they think that no one can compare statements?

Compare the Interim Statement end Sept where they stated:

• “full year revenue expected to be between £3.0 million and £3.7 million”….AND

• “anticipated to deliver cashflow positive trading in the second half of 2026; and the Company is funded to execute on this plan”

AND NOW:

- Revenues for the year ended 31 December 2024 are expected to be up 31% at £2.9 million BELOW SEPT Forecats ie they had made no progress in 2H

- cash balances and tax credits provide the Company with cash runway into 2026. Phase 3 clinical trials secured over the medium term would enable the Company to move into a cashflow positive position. SO NO LONGER CASHFLOW POSITIVE 2H but now some vague future date

Totally unacceptable repeatedly misleading shareholders!

What an absolute shambles HSS is. Ashmore who was paid a grand total of £2.6m in 20023!!!! Of that £392,000 salary + the most extraordinary £2.2m in cash under an ESA plan first concocted in 2021 . That this was all in cash with no obligation to buy any shares is even more extraordinary (AR 2023 Page 66 Note 2 if you're interested).

And just to rub it in, Ashmore has presided over a share price slide over 50% over last 3 years, losing a third of value over last 12 months alone......meantime you'll see that he clearly has absolutely no alignment with shareholders as he hasnt purchased a single share with his own cash (as opposed to option grants) since April 2021!

Not only is Ashmore thumbing his nose at shareholders, he is also blatantly ignoring the expectations set out by the Board in black & white. Read the following from Annual Report Page 67. Makes one blood boil:

" The Chief Executive Officer is expected to build up and maintain a shareholding in the Company

equivalent in value to at least 200% of annual salary...Since joining the Group in May 2017, Steve Ashmore has built his shareholding in the Company to 31% of annual salary. "

I spent a lot of time with MMs when I was at one of the big investment banks. Always something of an art rather than science

Interesting - thanks for that