Member Info for Fevertreeman

“Extremely likely if not inevitable”……unless Andrew Nero Newland can do something he has absolutely failed to do year in, year out, and actually deliver a flow of commercial transactions then Illumina won’t bother, as they wait till Newland drives the business into the ground

Sympathies and understanding.

Looks like s/o dumped 5m + in one go.

Dropped 12.3 % in 4 weeks. Crazy stuff.

Dropping at 5% per week - at this rate, Private Equity will grab another infrastructure gem. The absolute lack of support by UK institutions for our listed sector is appalling.

9% down in 4 weeks...that takes some doing

"We enter 2025 with confidence that our current large pharma contracts are progressing well and have the potential to lead to larger scale opportunities with the same customers coupled with an ability to secure additional new pharma contracts“

To be fair, Angle don’t control the pace at which Eisei conducts trials, so we’re stuck relying on the comments of Griffiths & Newland. However, the longer the news vacuum drags on, questions will start to be asked

Newland will IMO find it nigh impossible to raise any new equity at a sensible discount UNLESS he can provide something compelling & concrete to show investors why they should believe the equity story. Newland's irresponsible track record of ramping, missing his own forecasts, revenue downgrades, shifts in strategy have left a legacy of distrust among fund managers, and until he can demonstrate commercial traction AGL remains uninvestable for many insitutions

1. Already one of the biggest investors offshore wind, lots of wind expertise.

2. Expertise largely offshore ; UKW big onshore.

3.Government driving expansion of alternatives incl onshore wind

3. Govt supportive & Macquarie plugged in

4. UKW looks good fit. Offer NAV & get yourself 5th biggest wind operator

Unclear to me if this is QRO's mobile Harrier AI ANPR camera they were excited about. Bodes well

Share buy back a roaring success. One wonders what management is doing to stop the rot.

5m gone thro' already

Finished buy back mark 13 Feb, weighted average price paid for last tranche was 115.45. Sp already 5.6% below that last purchase. Sentiment v much against the sector, but I don't think management is helping matters.

Having sat through (& drafted) 100s of investor presentations the years, I think I know what to expect.

Positives:

~ I do agree Newland is getting better at presenting & providing background around liquid biopsy & Agl's positioning in market

Negatives:

~ Absolutely no financial data provided. Absolutely astonishing, Newland has no slide on finances at all. How are new US investors supposed to take a view if the basics are deliberately left out? No history of raises; no revenue chart; no numbers attached to current contracts, no comments about revenue.....thing absolutely nothing... I've spoken about Griffiths & Newland's deliberate reluctance to provide sensible financial forecasts. This just shows it in black & white

Check out some of the other presentations : Immuron -FIRST SLIDE: REVENUE GENERATING WITH STRONG PIPELINE...second slide SALES GROWTH...others had pipeline slides

C’mon, a warehouse operator, ffs!! As I have said before, any one attempting to interpret the hazy smoke signals from Sittng Bull**** Newland & Crazy Horse Griffiths is route to madness or Little Big Horn. Simple truth is the only smoke signals worth watching are those from Astra Zeneca, Eisei, or other big name pharma tribes.

Meantime, now the Newland-orchestrated frenzy over Illumina has ended, MMs are playing Grand Ol Duke of storm & marching share price right back down as traders that punted in the 9s,10s, 11a took profits after the rise to 16p. Newland can bang the drum for research bench alliances all he likes but it is commercial deals that will be the proof of the Parsortix commercial pusdong, and 3 years+ since FDA approval these remain in short supply

Time for our vaunted management team (self proclaimed) to step up and support it with their own bloody money and buy stock!

2007: £3i offload for £310m .to Archie Norman & Och Ziff private equity

2012: Exponent buy it for undisclosed amount. HSS has £18om revs & profits c£40m

2015: IPO at £2.10 giving initial market cap of £325m

2025: Market Cap is £43m FY 2023 revenues of £350m EBITA of £24m

Petards has been relying on 2 divisons: QRO (& more recently Affini) for its growth, as both Rail & Defence have been totally moribund for an extended period. Are we on the cusp of seeing these divisions finally contributing?

Rail - Probably Not Yet. Labour's decision to set up GBR & renationalise means yet further uncertainty. And whilst it may favour domestic manufacturers of rolling stock, completely unclear what this means for companies like Petards. Am surprised that Petards Rail has not pivoted mor to focus on export markets, given their strong brand and expertise. So further delay & deferment seems to be order of day.

Defence: 60 year relationship with MOD, and with defence spending about to ramp up, Petards must see considerable opportunities for the defence services business, as MOD focus moves away from supplying Ukraine, and more to building up UK defence capabilities. I suspect that the brokers may have to revisit their models & factor in greater contribution from Defence which can only be a good thing.

Going XD. NAV assumptions reduced; And calling time on £100m buy back, which market clearly views as a partial prop to sp that is no longer there. Combine these 2 factors with low sentiment for renewables; lack of clarity around Labour govt plans, & institutions shunning investment co sector, & you get an sp plumbing depths.

On a brighter note, investment vase remains strong: UKW 5th biggest wind farm owner in UK; wind key part of energy mix and energy transition - generates c30pc of power to UK grid (last 3 mnths = 32% just below gas 34); RPI-linked divi for current year of 10.5p = yield of 9.3%, which seems safer bet than many alternatives; refinanced debt Q3/Q4 last year, meaning no debt repayments 25/26; overall debt interest is c4.7% ; gearing level still too high but being addressed with first disposals ; Big discount to NAV may attract a predator ....