Member Info for Fevertreeman

Institutional support is gradually bleeding away from junior O&G plays in this market - I see no immediate end to the trend which is frustrating. I am not a fan of buybacks generally as they tend to reward management whose options tend to be linked to eps growth etc, but a share consolidation would in my view help. The bigger issue is what is the long-term strategy? All very well having ownership of a strategic pipeline but it needs product ; all very well having a 30pc stake in CPO but we don't have control; all very well doing deals with Oxy but to what end? I don't think the board know what to do in the face of relentless selling: methinks the NEDs should be pressing the executive and chairman much harder.

Luck Counts,

Always good to be on the receiving end. Mine were not random thoughts plucked from nowhere but garnered from a career spent in the equities market and fund management, and having sat on management boards of several listed companies. So spare me the vitriol; its unseemly. Yes the UK market is cheap vs other markets (well done for spotting that one) but since when have markets acted independently? The US market is at an all time high whilst at the same time the bond markets are predicting trouble ahead. These were the points I was making.....in trying to explain why professional investors may have chosen to dump or reduce exposure to AMER, and hence why the share price is in the doldrums along with other E&P stocks. AMER's fundamentals have improved but the share price hasn't and that is because sentiment is firmly against the sector and there is a massive overhang of institutional sellers. I am a holder here despite my reservations about the Chairman and FD. Colonel Drakes comments are worth reading by the way!

Easyp,

I think its a case of reducing exposure in small caps given where equity markets currently are. Some maybe rotating out of O&G into other sectors too or just reducing their exposure to the sector.

Hard to pinpoint individual reasons as to why some big institutions are heading for the exit, but one can see the justifications both at a stock specific level , sector level and in terms of market exposure;

1. The BoD has serially disappointed for a long time and despite the Oxy deal, the pipeline, the acreage & CPO-3, my guess is that these investors have had enough.
2. After a 10 year bull run, and with market sentiment resolutely turning against the O&G sector, the liquidity issues in small caps is starting to become a concern and some investors don't want to get stranded in hard-to-shift AIM O&G stocks even if they are profitable and producing decent cashflows.

My concern is that equity markets turn before JW/GC have time to prove the fundamentals of the business and start to show proper exploration success. If that happens then the serial failures to deliver against plan of recent years will really come back to haunt them and us.

So the question I am asking myself is why haven't we seen any further director buying, given the apparent uptick in positivity. They bang on about £1.5m of director buying over last 12 months but £1m of that was JW. I note that the Finance Director hasn't spent a cent buying a single share in the last 12 months which speaks volumes about his commitment to the cause. Equally none of the NEDs has dipped into their pockets since Jan (at 18p). I don't think its just the institutions that are reluctant to believe the bull case. When the FD is totally absent from the share register what msg does that send to the shareholders.

Instructive to see how other oilers are performing on the back of Brent uptick - Hurricane, Premier, Tullow etc....on a day when the Company lost one of the few NEDs who understands the industry and the country a period of reflection by the Board I think would be helpful given the generally dismal performance in recent years. As others have pointed out CP-05 is not our asset, and we have little control over what happens. The inability to manage their communications with their investors is a major issue as is the lack of operational discipline as ably pointed out by Baysilhope. I would add that the PTIP awards t the 2 exec directors leave much to be desired as they are already loaded up and well remunerated and NH who's been granted 200k worth has not purchased a single share with his
own money in the last 12 months, when supposedly the company was on a roll. So much for his commitment. All in all the BoD has a lot to ponder on this dismal day for the Company.

Chevron to buy Anadarko Petroleum in a $33 billion cash and stock deal
Chevron plans to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in a cash and stock deal the company valued at $33 billion.
The deal values Anadarko at $65 per share.

I have been invested inAMER for the last two years, and follow this BB and I have a lot of respect for the regular posters here. I just want to add my voice to JTD. As a former equities man and having been on the management team of a couple of major listed companies, I absolutely agree with JTD that this is an issue of consistent failure to deliver by the management team, combined with a failure by the Board to rein in irresponsible talk by the CEO, plus some very poor compensation decisions re lining board pockets. This combination has created a toxic brew. So, despite decent recent success and the semblance of some coherent strategy falling into place which should presage good times ahead, the share price is in the doldrums:

1. Doubting Thomas syndrome among big holders -they just no longer believe or trust this BoD, so are probably more inclined to offload... JW bangs on about CP-O5 as if he was the main mover not the Indians; he was far too gung-ho about the latest duster which seems his MO; meantime the Finance Director has yet to buy any stock since I have been invested which is appalling and the Chairman just once; despite the NED changes I get no sense that JW or NH are put under any real pressure....hence institutional ennui

2. Change in attitude towards E&P stocks among investors; asset allocators are shunning this area and are prepping for post carbon era. That is a long term change but it does mean that they can ignore the likes of Amer quite happily esp if there is a consistent history of non delivery

3. The sheer number of share in issue which makes this stock a playground for speculators and the market makers....a share consolidation is long overdue in my view. a 10:1 would certainly help.

It is all a matter of TRUST: this company has decent producing assets; cash in bank; the OBA, and great explo acreage. But until they can put a string of deliverables together, it will continue to trade in a very narrow band

And a final word on Malcy whom I know many follow here: he has never tackled JW or GC with really hard questions about their performance versus promises made/ share price, so JW gets a free ride every time he gets interviewed. That is not to say he isn't aware of the issues but just he chooses not to take them on.

Amusingly the FY results presentation from last year is mysteriously unavailable on the website

I have just looked at the FY presentation - these boys really do like to mess their investors about. Some useful comparator slides from Interims no longer there. Special pleading slide about how much directors have invested (Note FD has not purchased a single solitary share)…..it is no wonder people are fed up with the shenanigans

Any rally in oil price is bound to disproportionately benefit heavily indebted outfits like Premier. Current market cap is c£630m but net debt forecast yr end is an eye-watering $2.4bn.......we need a big result on Indico to clear all the loose stock that is still floating about. Fact that Wardle has bought large impresses me less than if we had seen some concerted NED buying. GC's purchase was pretty token in the circs....

I don't have access at the mo to level 2 quotes - are we seeing the same pattern of MMs dropping prie despite the presence of decent buying interest? SP continues to be divorced from balance sheet reality - let's hope the Indians get on with it at CPO3

One wonders when this will consolidate on fundamentals, if ever....

At the moment, there is so much loose stock about its no wonder the sp is marooned. It's' going to take something pretty spectacular to create a more solid share register.....no sign of any director buying ....and in the meantime the market makers continue to have fun with the spread

That is very helpful.….

No real evidence so far that we are seeing sustained buying at theses levels...more that the selling seems to have abated. But the rather worrying aspect of this is the lack of director buying at these levels....they are not in a close period that I am aware of, having had their interims and moved away from monthly updates, so given the oft repeated comments about CPO3, cash in bank, producing fields, built pipeline infrastructure etc....there has been nix buying from the Directors during this period....which isn't a great of faith, and we have a new NED who has a s yet no stock....strangely unsupportive....so unless our own Geoffrey Boycott has some deal up his sleeve I would counsel caution

Jointhedots. I absolutely agree with your assessment. The irony is that the RH mega-sale has actually been the perfect distraction. It masked the serial failings of the management team and got shareholders obsessing about the SP rather than the execution of the strategy. Having a great strategy that you then cant execute is no strategy at all. The troika in charge are all at fault but the fact of the matter is that it is the chairman who should carry the most responsibility - it is his job to ensure that the executive team is up to scratch and meeting its commitments. Having serial players at the top of the firm with other businesses in play has also been very damaging to the business.

I had meant to add the word 'recently' in terms of share purchases … my point being that at this level some show of faith by the board would help to allay the suspicions of many investors that the gang of three have absolutely no interest in their stakeholders. I take your point about how they may explain drilling program; the answer any fund manager worth his/her salt would have given is... what probability do you attach to those drilling plans...the fact that as you say they are at the mercy of others should have made them far more cautious in setting out over ambitious drilling plans. The 1:18 drills just looks extraordinarily inept and reeks of complacency, knowing as you say they can blame their partners.

What irks shareholders most about Amer, including many professional fund managers, is not the presence of a largescale seller in form of RH, or even that they hit a duster (its the nature of exploration), is the complete disconnect between guidance about planned activity and what has actually happened - 18 wells to be drilled in 2018, and so far only one - and then the brazenness with which the Board ignore previous guidance. Given the high regard in which the senior team seem to hold themselves, and the absolute refusal to accept blame or even admit that they were over ambitious, there is now little faith attached to what management says, and I would suggest some serious concerns over their operational delivery and project management skills. Added to this is the fact that not one of the board has actually stepped into the market to buy the shares.

This is proving an unmitigated disaster of expectation management. From monthly updates (where there were none previously) which provided perfect fodder for short speculators we move to quarterly reporting at a point where supposedly a drilling campaign of 18 wells is up and running. Meantime production is stalled; N sands tanked the share price; continued selling from Rex Harbour; and the BOD is swanning around in Colombia as if w/o a care in the world. The sp is tanking and no sign of any director buying whatsoever least of all from our esteemed Chairman and CFO.

As s/o who ran a Corp Affairs function, I very much doubt that the arrival of a new NED is the cause of the silence on the RNS front. I tend to the view tat they are packaging up a series of items to provide a more comprehensive update given the sp performance and the generally negative sentiment towards to BOD. Lets wait and see but until the BoD step in to pick up more stock themselves all the phot-ops in the world aren't going to convince investors this is out of the woods.