Member Info for Fevertreeman

Good points. What I meant was that, as there is no formal offer on the table they wont want to fire their ammo all at once. The Indo's could come back with a much better offer without us having made any further announcements. Its known as keeping your powder dry......and on that note, any hostile bidders will need to do their own due diligence as access to Amer info will be restricted

Given what I have just said about the timetable, until we see a definitive offer on the table, the share price will hover around the indicative offer. The fact that it hasn't run to a big premium over the 'derisory offer' indicates that Mr Market isn't sure how to value Amer at present so is being cautious.

Amer has up to 39 days after any formal offer to add material new information! Something they will no doubt be discussing with their advisers ....they will want to see the whites of any formal offerees eyes before announcing Sol etc imho

A number of posters have suggested that this will be done and dusted within weeks, which ignores the fact that this becomes a formal process with a number of well rehearsed dance steps. Having been through a few myself, I can assure you that this will likely run for months if we get competing formal bids. So points on the timetable:

1. M&P announcement is not a FIRM OFFER under Rule 2.7 of the Takeover Code so M&P now has 28 days either to announce a firm offer or walk away. (TAKES US TO END OF AUGUST)

2. They ANNOUNCE A FORMAL OFFER : they have up to 28 days to post FORMAL OFFER DOCUMENT to shareholders. (TAKES US TO END SEPT)
3. Day Zero - POSTING OF THE FORMAL OFFER DOCUMENT SETS CLOCK TICKING FOR TAKEOVER TIMETABLE
4. Day 14 - latest date for Amer send its first defence documents to shareholders
5. Day 21 - earliest closing date for acceptances of M&P offer
5. Day 39 - last date for Amer to publish material new information (OCTOBER/NOV)
6. Day 46 - last date for M&P to send out a revised offer document (NOV)
6. Day 60 -midnight; latest time for Offer to be declared unconditional ...unless Panel grants an extension (NOV)

My point is that all you peeps should relax a tad and let this thing play out. Assume that M&P will launch a formal offer and watch others come on board, so this will run into the Autumn if we just get one formal offer and longer if we have others jump on board.

IMHO he has virtually no influence with the institutions and may be called upon for the occasional sound bite by his cousins in the financial media but that's about it.

I doubt whether we will see any voluntary announcement from the BoD tomorrow. They will be hunkering down with the advisers playing the long game - where's the rush ; plenty of time to put out announcements at a steady pace as and when required. What is needed is cool heads - remember there's always an outside chance it might not happen - and GC &JW for all their faults has form when it comes to selling listed companies. I think the share price will continue to edge higher tomorrow whilst folk catch their breath. The Indonesians have been flushed out & its up to them and their advisers to plot their next move. Charm offensive with the media likely for weekend press given its almost holiday time and the press will be hungry to fill the pages

Am slightly surprised that with +12m traded the sp is where it is just marginally above the 17p offer. Have the Indonesians been building a stake? Hard to know given how much loose stock there was around at 12-13p but it would have made sense, so we will no doubt see what their holding is in due course and whether they are in the market buying now

I meant to assume these guys arent serious would be a mistake!!

I posted yesterday that the Board had struck the first blow on Fri by announcing the approach. How much firepower M&P has to commit to this remains to seen but as the international development arm of Indonesian national oil company Pertamina it could be considerable. Ian Hannam ( formerly doyen of mining world) and Brunswick are advising them so to assume these guys are serious would be a mistake. That said 17p cash n shares is never going to cut it.....This could get very interesting as GC and JW sit hopefully dealing with contested bids. Also note that the deal is subject to due diligence and that relies on our BoD giving them access so good luck with that

As others have mentioned and I have said before, you cant price this off the average of last 3 months sp given no change in fundamentals from earlier in the year other than one small duster and institutions selling out of junior E&P stocks. The positive corp news here has outweighed any small negative announcements but sentiment has been against the sector. Remember it isnt a financial institution that is buying this but another oil company so what constitutes good value to them will be function of many more components. Time and again the markets have got valuations wrong on takeover stocks because they failed to see the long term strategic and commercial benefits that accrued to the purchaser e.g Shell/BG Xstrata/Glencore etc.. So safe to assume that opportunistic approach will have strategic logic and I would expect s/o to break cover and possible get a deal approved but it would have to be quite at a punchy price to try and deter others stepping in. I have no idea what the final takeout price will be but I think it could well surprise a few folk here positively. Also this could take months to play out, so there is trading profits to be made — if you are an Arb fund reading this chat you’d take a view that you can make some fast profits between now and any end dwak. Next week I see the stock moving further north on back of buying pressure to settle c18-20p mark

Just to share my thoughts on what the advisers will be upto ( I have been in thick of these types of sits over the years). First the company were clever in making that announcement in Fri putting the one interested party on the backfoot and being seen to take control of the process. Second, could they have held off making an RNS? Probably not as it was arguably PSI that may well have leaked anyway. So the game is afoot. What we dont know is what the indicative approach was or indeed if it was just a fishing exercise which the RNS response will have put an end to. There isn't as yet a firm offer on the table so the advisers will be testing their own valuation scenarios to get some sort of range they can use to benchmark any offers. Likely that the top 10 shareholders got called by GC/ brokers on Friday to amplify the RNS. Thus may have been followed up by brokers to get some initial feedback around institutions’ thoughts incl possible views on valuation. This feedback will be collated and then shared with the board, and will be updated regularly as things progress....the Take Over Panel will be keeping tabs on the process and the clock will start ticking once formal bid made. Hope this is helpful

We are indeed in the end game. The plan was always to sell up ; very difficult to grow an E&P minnow into a whale even if you hit the motherlode so the plan (note: not strategy) was to get as far as they could and sell. The danger imho is going to be the extent to which GC & JW can manage the process w/o upsetting the suitors.....now that they have pout the for sale sign they sure as hell wont want to haul it down....

As I have said before and others commented, GC wants out at the right price of course

RBC Capital Markets analyst Al Stanton said: "Amerisur's producing assets are low cost, onshore oil (Brent linked pricing) with infrastructure already in place, and the company has material exploration acreage in the Putumayo basin.
"In our view potential suitors could include Occidental (recent farm in partners), and Colombian focused E&P companies including Gran Tierra Energy, Parex Resources and Geopark-ONGC partnership."

Only fund managers buying recently.....

I would be surprised if the winning offer is a mix of shares and cash if only because the remaining institutions will probably not want to hold paper (probably in a non-UK listed entity) given this is mostly held in small cap funds. Not sure if GEO has the firepower to pay cash in a competitive process. Also I do not see this being carved up piecemeal with bits going to different players. I think GC and the Board will want a clean exit.

All that selling by pro's has come unstuck.....

In my experience the City regularly underestimates what a business is worth to a commercial buyer: seen this regularly over the years where companies receive a bid and the analysts are all sellers. So if we agree Amer is of strategic value to a larger player either in fast-tracking their entry into Colombia or accelerating an existing play, then the price they will be pay will take into account those factors....not just the NAV

I am hearing...indeed...???

The move will have triggered automatic sales from the institutions who want out so it may be some time before a true picture emerges