Member Info for Fevertreeman

Agree that the show must go on, but what we have been served up is a continued series of matinees with no-shows by the star turns...….for all their much vaunted skills, CPO -5 is the jewel over which we have no control, and we cant influence time of the show, who's in it, whether it get postponed , or any aspect of it.

The management's reputation will be in tatters and I predict a hostile bid, which frankly would at least have the merit of forcing these guys to fight for the business

One has to hope that by raising the white flag of surrender over the assets, GC can get a deal that provides a modicum of decency to cover up the team's failings....frankly the sooner this saga is over, the sooner the better.

This was what the Outlook bit relating to drilling in the yr end results in April. Any guesses for how much of the $35m they have actually spent as we head towards the end of Q3 ?

Outlook
· Fully-funded work programme of around $35m, with up to ten exploration and development wells planned across CPO-5 and the Putumayo targeting gross prospective resources of 145 MMBO

Lets hope GC has something positive to present beyond the usual litany of platitudes

R&M continues to sell into the market

With the Indonesians having underwritten the sp at 17p , it is surprising that the sp remains marooned at this level. My conclusion is that such is the reputation of our BoD for under-delivery that the market ascribes no premium to their M&A skills and who can blame Mr Market given their dismal track record.

Which is what Bigsmoke? I am as baffled as the next ex-fund manager. This team has delivered SFA for shareholders, but now have a chance at redemption. Unclear whether GC et al can snatch victory from the jaws etc

Share activity has all but dried up today - I think the Rubik's cube of possible permutations has exhausted us all.

GC is not going to do a share n cash transaction. Would you with the bull market in its 10th year. If its a decent premium and all cash he will recownd shareholders accept. Also institutions will want cash too (,unless perhaps its OXY ). Could spark an aiction

We are all thrashing around trying to second-guess what the parties are up to arent we. As El Colonel sagely noted folks should sit back and enjoy the ride. That said I have a few observations:

CPO-5 may appear our most valuable bargaining chip but as others have noted a 30pc non working stake will not have much heft with the Indians. Why would they be in a hurry to prove up the find to boost our NAV on GC’s timetable. Perversely though, that may be advantageous as potential buyers are going to have to take a flyer on what that stake is worth ( and I mean over the next 10 years ir so if it a biggie). Do ONGC care about a different face on the 30pc stake? Only if it helps them, otherwise I dont see them losing too much sleep.

2. As I’ve noted before the pipeline has real strategic value as the cost in time and money and politics for s/o contemplating doing it again from scratch makes buying Amer very attractive
3. These types of strategic plays come along rarely & the value the market ascribes is often way off the strategic value ascribed by the industry players ( seen this time and time again e.g -Glencore/ Xstrata; Shell/British Gas BP/Burmah

We don't know who is leading the negotiations but JW can't be in two places at once. Operational progress as ever with this team is suboptimal. Who knows, behind the scenes arses may be being kicked but one has to doubt it given prior form. In my opinion this is bloody stupid as they need to keep the foot to the metal irrespective of the current corporate situation.

There is one indicative offer on the table that gives us a valuation floor of 17p. Now of course M&P may withdraw their offer in which case they cant come back for a while but nevertheless they have set the floor in terms of value. Personally a shares and cash mix is unlikely to appeal to the institutions who will wan to take cash off the table and recycle elsewhere, so I see an all cash offer triumphing but at what price I have no idea. If its too low then GC/JW aren't under pressure to agree a deal that fundamentally undervalues this business. So relax, watch the cricket and let events take their course

I read nothing into this except (1) Market vol has spooked some investors who continue to top slice (2) Lack of concrete news (3) market makers trying to drum up trade

this wont be independent come Xmas....

Without wishing to get in between you and the Colonel, long experience of advising companies in public M&A means that I hove to the Colonel's view. Whilst there may well be many a slip between lip and cup, the game's up for this management team as evidenced by GC's attempted manged exit from his various vehicles. This is AIM not the FTSE100 and whilst there will be institutions and individuals who may cavil about the eventual takeout price, this is going, going gone....and they will be happy to recycle the cash elsewhere. All of your points are well JtD but I just think that barring the announcement of a world class find that gushes black gold or an absolute collapse in world equity markets, this will be independent come Xmas.

1. Between 25-30p
2. Between 30-40p
3. Between 40 -50p
4. None of the above

I have crossed off the following from my reinvestment short list:
1.President Energy (Argentina peso collapse and general chaos)
2. Sirius (no idea what happens next but it aint looking good)
3. M&C Saatchi ( where there are accounting irregularities there's normally some real issues to come)

That's yer lot !

I failed to give insight in to Renewi where I am currently sitting on a loss (average price paid 45p). Was the old Shanks before a value-destroying merger with a Benelux waste management business punished the share price compounded by a prohibition on the csale of treated soil in Holland, and the fall out of some rubbish PFI contracts. Add to that high net debt and the share price has dropped like a stone.....signs of life though: new CEO, expectation that the Holland situation will be resolved; reassuring recent trading statement; sale of Canadian business proceeds will pay down debt; recycling is a sweet spot going forward