Member Info for fatsuperman

Daz, what does ‘standard’ even mean to you? These assays are really, really strong. Anything above 1% is very good and there are some great looking numbers here.

Context - Pilbara has 157mt at an average grade of 1.2%

These results show that everything the team thought the knew about the scale and quality of the resource is correct so far. Obviously the process of delineating a mineral resource is done in stages, and your confidence level increases as you learn (drill) more. I think most people understand that.

All going to plan and I’m actually pleasantly surprised at how strong these numbers are. Great progress finally, when you consider how long we’ve been talking about Zulu! Yes, lots of work to be done, but we’ve got the partner and agreements that should mean it’s no longer painful on holders - so get in or stay in at nearly the bottom floor and see how we go as the team March toward pilot production (will be some bumps with that, but anything that gets us learning faster is great)

Well Jaeger is only in about 25 stores, and other brands in even fewer. So, I don't think the shopper is seeing that direct comparison between M&S and the brands. Personally I think the turnaround began before then, with some new talent and a shift in the culture to start being a bit more proud of the heritage of the brand and it's position in the market. Remember the timeline on clothing design, manufacture and supply is really long (for M&S at least), so the lines doing well now are a year in the making.

I always feel like this when I walk down the condiments aisle in Tesco / Sainsbury's etc. Do we really need 80 different types of tomato ketchup?
Mind you, refreshing the choice and a focus on product innovation is also vital for success. So, balance the customer favorites with new products and food innovation, whilst keeping the overwhelming choice under control. Tricky!

ART123 - a good point about path to [more] production being fast here. Certainly compared to other oil small caps which haven’t even found confirmed oil yet, let alone producing from a field!

Bit weird Daz to be saying that KOD have spent six years completing their DFS and negotiations, and in that time only drilled to a 20mt resource. What is their exploration target?

Note that PREM have stated their target in the main zone is 80mt, with a further 80mt likely in the first step-out zone. - not a formal target at the moment. This 160mt is all in one part of the small original license area. With the extended area being almost 50 times bigger - note again that the mineralisation extends miles into the extended zone, as surveys and exploration drills have shown.

Everybody here knows it’ll take a while to build the mine and plant. But the scale of Zulu is already targeted to be world-class, and the potential is absolutely enormous.

My bad Noob! For some reason I thought it was end of December and then another would kick in.

Do the volumes and price stay consistent until Feb '24 ?

End of the year. That hedge was a required from our finance provider, and frankly is a sensible thing to have done, given the possibility of further COVID waves at the time (and no visibility of a war kicking off)

I went and had a check of the Mongolian alternative mentioned. Boggles the mind how anyone can think that is a better investment than COPL. Even without the recent announcement, COPL is a far better investment - accounting for the size of the reserves and the fact it is already producing, as opposed to at the early stage of development.

I can understand bashers turning up, but when they are invested in a company in the same industry, but poorer in every way, just makes absolutely no sense.

Kenny 13:00

That new zone (often referred to as the EPO - exclusive prospecting order) *definitely* has lithium in it, there is no doubt about that - the company have confirmed several times that the mineralisation runs past our original boundary, and indeed there is a load of surface mineralisation visible that just goes on and on - hence why we requested that extension in the first place.

Obviously step one is to get an updated resource estimate for the existing area (you'll hear these called main and step-out zones), and then updated exploration targets for both of those and the new EPO. Massive, massive upside here.

Fats

Stas,
This piece is intriguing; 'or restructuring proposal with interested parties'

Probably a standard thing, but wonder what level AM would be interested in a different deal. CUDA would want some WI that didn't tie them to any capital costs, but if that's even possible it would have to be a tiny %. There is probably a scenario here where we do a cash and COPL shares deal. And hopefully they don't just ditch the shares like fools.

Damn right BigBear!

As an example, Shell could buy us for the market cap increase they've had in less than an hour of trading. They are up by ~3% so far. Which means their market cap just increased by about £5bn.

I'm with you Noob, obscene salaries for so many small caps - which is ripping off shareholders. I'm responsible for an annual budget twice the market cap of this entire company, and I get paid _*significantly*_ less than $500k! :D :D

Shaa, that’s what I immediately thought. If options taken, the bod will now hold what, 12% ‘ish. So whilst not massive, certainly more helpful against hostile takeover / company theft.

If all taken, it’s 6/7% dilution for us. Not really a big deal if it helps protect us.

Now-or-never, yep sorry I wasn’t more specific. We own that ‘drill’ 100% because the other partners chose not to contribute (or couldn’t afford it in the case of CUDA). So we own that drill until we recoup 400% of the outlay. That is written somewhere in the unit operating agreement. :)

Yep Wookie and Noob. Not really anything we can do about it anyway, so just need to hope the news is a bit of a bolt from the blue and there is a nice easy way of valuing things. If we’ve got good production and confirmed P2 reserves, it would be hard to argue for a $3 per barrel value right?

Now or never. Nope.

WI breakdown for each group is in here, page 18.

https://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/COPL-2021-Project-Jackson-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf

I agree Noob - I find it more likely they’d wait until we’ve done more of the leg work, confident they’ll still be able to execute a buyout like that.

Also why they may not bother with CUDA at this stage. They aren’t worried about £20m here and there. They want to save billions, whilst letting us carry the exploration risk.

Hey Wookie (10:02). The theory is that yes, absolutely a shadow buyer (investment firm, oil & gas co, etc) can be in play. And of course it is incredibly simple for them to purchase a significant stake in a company through intermediaries and still keep below the notification level.

Low-valued companies with strong assets and no significant holders are at great risk of this behavior - so are companies where a small number of ii's have a controlling stake. You see patterns of the shares price being held down as they accumulate, they will use every trick in the book to get as many shares as possible for perhaps 6 - 12 months. They then propose a buy out at a laughable number, but at a premium to the current price (another great reason to bash the life out of it).

It goes for a vote and since they secretly control a significant block of voting, it will go through. Technically illegal but almost impossible to see and therefore prove. They don't even need a controlling interest, since every 'new' investor will vote yes as they'll get a nice double digit % profit. And loads of others will still be worried about all the FUD the purchasing company themselves will be spreading, so happy to 'get out'.

The buyer picks up a many multi-billion £ asset for a couple of hundred million.

Obviously could be a nonsense theory, but I personally think it's extremely naive to believe that anyone looking to buy the asset won't do everything they can to get it for as small a number as possible. Why on earth do people think some benevolent purchaser will come in and offer $5bn if they don't have to?

I agree Bob. And given the TR1 system is not enforced and laughably easy to get around, it opens the door for some very undervalued British listings. Our companies can get sold remarkably cheap due to our broken rules.

If someone is interested in hedging their bets on COPL, and waiting to pounce until the discovery gets a bit more certain, then they could already hold a large stake of the company. Absolute disaster for us if some major ends up with controlling interest because 'shareholders' will end up 'approving' a low ball offer in the future.

Out in the open investment obviously a very different story!

Yep a lie in for everyone today I guess! I found this quite a worrying read, in overall terms. Obviously from a short term oil price perspective it means what we produce and our reserves will be both incredibly valuable. So a real mixed feeling about the direction price of oil is going. We (society / industry / governments) have all seriously messed up here. The transition from oil needs to happen with a considered plan, not a fingers-in-your-ears insistence that you stop exploring / investing immediately. (Slap my head emoji)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/90-Oil-Is-Only-The-Beginning.html