Member Info for fatsuperman

Great post Daceon, love the sentiment there.

don't want to keep repeating myself, but this action is textbook what it said on the 'griproom' links that were posted yesterday. Including the UT at the end and what would happen next. I don't want to become some sort of conspiracy theorist, but we should definitely keep our eye out for a few things, given we've now got a (potential) massive asset but a very low mcap. We're at risk of being stolen here.

Nice AJEP,

Really looking forward to the CPR - hopefully soon but no later than March at least. Then those sorts of numbers will stop being quite so theoretical

Would also love some insight into development plan and / or an announcement on that other 15% between now and March!

Fats

Price pattern is _exactly_ as described on here that 'stock being manipulated link' below

I know HfB, so useless isn't it. You'd think that in the internet era, where all sort of technology challenges are resolved with remarkable ease. you'd imagine it would be possible to print whether the original transaction started as a buy or a sell. I wonder why the stock markets, banks and institutes don't want to have that change introduced!

Thank you to whoever posted these opinion pieces earlier. I was initially skeptical, but reading through there are some stark similarities in what we see with COPL. The post on 'buyout theft' is really concerning - I think our only benefit here is that there is very little ii involvement on the face of it. Doesn't mean something isn't going on in the background, but you'd hope they'd struggle to get above 50% before it being really obvious.

Worth 10 minutes of your time:

https://www.griproom.com/fun/12-signs-your-stock-is-targeted-for-buyout-theft

https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-stock-is-being-manipulated

Morning AJEP,

For a find that covers multiple licences, I've assumed the unitisation rules mean that COPL get whatever % is above our land (85%). If the adjoining license isn't taken, you'd hope that we'd picked that up urgently, prior to announcement and hold it independently from the rest of the unit operating agreement for Baron Flats Fed Deep.

And for the WI, we have 100% of _this_ drill, because nobody else contributed. But I doubt that would remain the case for the whole thing, so for prudence I've used the worst-case scenario. According to the prospectus (page 18), we have 55.56% WI in BFFD.

So my formula currently uses 85%, 55.56% and then your choice of recovery factors, oip price, etc.

Fats

Hey AJEP, was looking at your valuations from this afternoon. I don’t think you took into account that not all of the oil is under our land, nor that we don’t have 100% WI in BF Fed Deep?

I mean, the number are still crazy, but accuracy is more important than precision here :)

Please note - this is a general observation, and not about anyone in particular. It's also not meant to be an exhaustive list, just my thoughts.

The BB is an open and anonymous forum for people to type literally anything they want. It's obviously going to be used by all sorts of people, all with an agenda.

_LTH_ - invested in the company, want it to rise, probably want a big pay off, happy to wait out dips and sell in multiple years time. Loose plan to wait for actual outcomes (commercialisation of whatever the product / service is), but might suddenly bail if there is a huge spike. No particular agenda other than growth of the company and SP. Often get emotionally involved and prone to get caught holding the baby.

_Short term_ - not necessarily traders, but only after a quick trade, usually off the back off news or sentiment (hype cycle) but certainly aren't going to wait years for commercial outcomes, unless it just so happens that the company is at that point in the lifecycle. These people want the share to rise rapidly and might come across as reckless / rampers

_Traders_ - These people want the share price to move either way. They will take a position if they think the price will move, so their opinion (and maybe username) will change on a day to day basis as they want to influence general opinion in one direction or another. They will look like LTH, or rampers, or bashers depending on what they want to influence. LOTS of traders just get on with their life and don't feel the need to post nonsense, they just go about their professional task. These people are the dream for most of us dabbling in the stock market. Especially if they've taught themselves and got out of the rat race.

_Disgruntled ex-holders_ - These people have held from early on, have been burned repeatedly by the company, and probably other companies in the past. They used to be LTH. I often find the biggest detractors of a company are the people who have lost a fortune (relative to them) and then seen others get in YEARS later and make money. A huge number of us have been here, although probably not to the point we've dedicated time to bad mouth the company on a BB etc. A very understandable emotional outcome.

OBVIOUSLY there will be people in all those buckets that DO NOT post crap and try and influence others. There are a lot of truly genuine people in every single group. Many of them will just sit quietly and post occasionally, some will post loads, some won't post at all. But the vocal minority tend to be the ones with a heavy agenda.

In an anonymous forum, we can never know what role people are playing - the broken chat history makes it even worse. Those less-noble people must love that it's conveniently broken. Of course, if someone has been posting consistently for a decade then they are probably genuine. Albeit could turn from LTH to disgruntled ex-holder eventually :) :)

Of course Sparkz, the 'gangs' can work it either way - the money is to be made in both directions of course. It appears to me that it is much easier to scare people that things are going down though. It plays naturally into our fears and instincts. And let's be honest, on the way up they don't have to do any work as holders will naturally get overexcited about their own investment.

Why are people so skeptical that financial institutes / companies would run these sorts of groups? They fixed libor, do you really think they won't do this sort of practice that is practically impossible to prove - they'll never get caught and prosecuted. And they will MAKE MONEY from it. OF COURSE this happens.

Some people yesterday saying "people don't get influenced by these BBs". Absolute nonsense aas well. OF COURSE they do. 95%+ of the people on this board have absolutely no experience in this industry, and a similar number have no experience of investing in oil & gas. Most of them do practically zero research, they just read some of these posts, follow the links in these posts and half-read the RNAs, without understanding them and failing to draw any conclusions.

And there will be even more people reading that never post, who absolutely will be influenced by a well-thought out post that sounds legit. They don't have the heuristics to figure out truth from lies... using those words is probably a bit over the top, since a lot of it at this stage is interpretation and opinion. But nevertheless!

I’m in a waiting room at Tunbridge Wells station at this very moment!! :D :D

Not outraged tho

Yep - we need to take into account it isn’t _all_ under our land, and ofc that we have 55% WI at the moment (overall, the initial few wells being 100% until we get a fourfold return is irrelevant).

Still a hugggge number at lowball estimates for recovery and value per barrel.

Well there has to be one by the end of March, so I would anticipate that. There doesn’t seem a lot of reason (from AMs perspective) to do it much sooner.

Wow, catching up today and some of our fellow COPL ‘investors’ seem to be posting A LOT today about lots of negative stuff backed up by myth and rumour, whilst declaring how much they hope this rises and does well etc etc.

Really rather strange for investors in a company that has risen massively over a week to start panicking about a conspiracy when it drops back a bit.

I wish it were naivety, but far more likely it’s just an agenda.

Imagine how different this place would be if we could all see each other’s investment and recent transactions. The arguing and nonsense would disappear overnight. Especially from those investors who have recently sold and then suddenly started to have all these huge concerns and worries.

If you are worried that this isn’t going to be as positive as it sounds; that is absolutely a fair concern, then probably don’t invest too much, or at all. You can always get in after a CPR and flow test. Yes, it’ll be at a higher price, but it’ll still be a massive value play. Not only will you be happier with the risk, but you also wouldn’t have to post every few minutes talking about all these huge worries you have with your own investment. So weird.

I'm not so sure Yacht. Getting hold of CUDA's WI in BF Fed deep would be great if we can get it for a reasonable price - we can then sell that for multiples more once we get more certainty on the resource and recovery etc.

If all of that is correct, and all of our volume gets to 'reserve', then we'll have 5% of US reserves. Hilarious.

Schlum - those are quite possibly low ball estimates. The Sand Dunes gas flood (up the road from us) went from 3.5k BOPD to 12.5k BOPD in 6 months after they started gas injection. There are multiple horizontal wells achieving over 10k BOPD in the local area. Easily googled.

Doesn't mean we will achieve that of course, but the signs are all positive.

*Note that oil _reserves_ are often valued at 1/3rd the market value. So this valuation will shoot up as we get further certainty.

Other sensitivities:
Total oil may be significantly higher (company estimate on the top end was almost 1.9bn)
Recovery may be closer to 50% (nearby competitors have achieved this - although profit likely impacted)

For even more laughs:
1.9bn barrels
85% under our land
56% WI
50% recovery
~449m barrels
$27.72 per barrel (33% of current WTI price*)
~£12.4b market cap (actually value of oil, not the market cap!)
£46.16 per share

Obviously silly so don't shoot/report the messenger

I suppose if we are typing whilst dreaming, I'll have a go too... fairly conservative I'd say:

1bn barrels
85% under our land
56% WI
30% recovery
~142m barrels
$4.20 per barrel (5% of current WTI price*)
~£430m market cap
£2.21 per share

Schlum - there must be an error or two, given £1.5bn divided by our shares in issue / outstanding is nowhere near £30. :)