Member Info for fatprofits

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/07/oxford-covid-jab-less-effective-against-south-african-variant-study-finds

Hopefully effectiveness against severe illness in an older demographic is considerably better.

Autumn boosters targeting new variants now odds on?.

From memory the annual flu jab usually targets 3 or 4 different strains of virus.

I've been trading since 1991, so unfortunately my memory is significantly
longer!.

For many investors Unilever is a much easier buy and hold investment
and as per Nick Trains's longer term holding; that strategy paid off handsomely.

Clearly you need to review company performance and quality every so often,
or following a material change in the outlook.

Over 25 years Capita(CPI) made many people rich.

At one point Capita made a top 10 list of greatest % returns of all
LSE stocks over a 30 year timeframe - look at what has happened since...

Neil, I find sometimes you can look at a subject in a slightly different
way to others, that can be helpful.

I've asked LSE to consider a temporary edit window; Seeking Alpha
allow this in their comments section.

Have you read the article rather than just the headline?.

Thanks for highlighting that particular FT article,
meant to say yesterday.

In terms of post results comment, that write up
may be the fairest assessment.

Https://www.timesofisrael.com/14-of-16-severe-covid-patients-in-trial-recover-with-experimental-israeli-drug/

Fantastic news if confirmed on a larger scale.

...two large buts, eh

That's self-deprecation on my part as I'm the king of typos.

Dyslexia and a lack of Edit function is not a good combo for me!.

Turned out to be a really good one.

I dismissed it when mentioned late last year
and was clearly wrong.

The stock market is known as 'the great humiliator' for a good reason.

* predicated

The significant equity market gains since mid November
are largely predicted on (assumed) Covid-19 vaccine
effectiveness - this particularly relates to cyclicals.

If a scenario were to arise which punctured that narrative,
wider equity markets would paint a vulgar picture.

I tend to look at Covid-19 vacination from a slightly
different perspective - each year I have the annual GSK
influenza vaccine and my expectation is
It (hopefully) mitigates the risk of more serious illness.

If COVID vaccination can mitigate the majority
of serious cases and hopefully largely prevent
Long Covid, we are left with a coronavirus that looks
more like pneumonia or seasonal flu.

That is also my expectation of what lies ahead,
In the context of regular boosters for the foreseeable.
There will continue to be individuals for
whom vaccination proves less effective,
as happens with both pneumonia and flu,
which kill tens of thousands in the UK alone each year.

Ben, good summation, 5-7% will do me.

However as I'm currently finding reasonable risk/reward
more difficult to find, might just let it run and collect
the Q divi this year

I expressed my feelings very strongly on results day.

I question the huge play on oncology, whether EW is the right
person for the CEO role, whether Hal Barron will add significant
value to the organisation - in tetms of the money that is being spent?
I would not be shocked to see him exit later this year, or next.

The £2.4 bn demrrger cost is appalling, seriously nearly two and a half bn
to separate a company.

The FY21 guidance was disappointing.

I found the tone of the call very odd and I've listened to many
over the years - the self-congratulatory aspect almost disturbing
but more than that there was an arguable insincerity about it.

But and there is a but...the vaccine business outlook appears strong,
at least Post pandemic, the spin off should ultimately create value.
If the oncology pipeline delivers there is scope for a re-rating.
Expectations are now very, very low.

I would say this week has been a mere fleshwound! )

There could be an FX element explaining the lower 2021 FY EPS consensus.

GBP is strengthening against a basket of currencies atm.

I have FY21 consensus EPS now at 1.93,

when I looked before results that number was around 2.10.

Can anyone clarify if I'm looking at the correct numbers, thanks.

Fairs.

Terry is more clever than I am.

I'm not sure about that, LEX far from upbeat today, it was a short write up though.

The only incisive pointLEX made was on margins,
highlighting much of FY 2020 margin fall was because
of additional Covid-19 related costs.

Little quality commentary about these days, it really is a case of DYOR.

As long as Terry Smith does not sell out, he has recently exited RB.

Well I've also been trading for 30 years!

but nowhere near that level and in ordinary shares only.

I've never had an SB account, I dont trade options or use any margin, ever -
very vanilla.

Good fortune with your holding.

I'm hoping for £44/45 at some point this year.

CFO's comment on rising input costs has gone down
like a cold bucket of sick, coupled with the dash for cyclicals.

Spot on.

Trsdes can also be delayed etc.

Very quickly, I'm guessing you trade a bit then.