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Italy is currently in a State of Emmgency with restrictions.

Looks very, very ugly there.

UK and Israel leading the way on vaccination.

Israel in particular doing a fantastic job.

UK vaccinated another half a million people yesterday.

Compare the rapidly falling UK COVID iinfection numbers with
the wave of new infections now hitting multiple other European countries,
including Italy.

Or perhaps don't mention the vaccine!.

Since the advent of Covid-19, 95% plus of posts on AZN have been

vaccine related.

AZN is Not a vaccine company, I am very grateful for the Oxford Astra jab,

however it obscures the extraordinary high growth oncology business that AstraZeneca

has transformed in to.

Back in today.

If it would like to go lower tomorrow that would be appreciated

As want a few more.

FY results next week.

NAV progression is a thing of beauty here

And sooner or later the OCI share price will follow.

We look in a consolidation phase currently,

they only last so long, before we move swiftly Over £3

A share Upwards.

Strong Buy for me.

All imv and as always please dyor.

Looking more like a correction in the offing for the NAS
(Unless we see an intra-day reversal).

wider markets may follow.

GSK should hopefully show some relative outperformance here.

Important close for the US today.

Covid-19 vaccine makes zilch difference to the GSK price.

However, the cost of Covid-19 to GSK has been in the £ hundreds of millions

and re the GSK SP, in to the multi £ billions .

If Covid-19 disappeared tomorrow, then GSK would imv be
valued at least 10-15% higher.

It has been hideously expensive for GSK.

Yam, is it an interesting read?.

It bears little resemblance to AZN.

Too early to call a correction for wider equity markets at this stage,

however already some savage % declines.

Vir, which is frequently mentioned here, closed below $40,

having hit a high of over $80 less than 6 weeks ago.

Curevac, also mentioned a lot on the GSK board, has fallen from $126 to near $81,

in just 1 month.

We know the FY 21 dividend is likely to be maintained,

that's the guidance GSK have provided.

It's not guaranteed, as no dividend is guaranteed.

Dividends can be cancelled even when they have been declared

if it's before the pay date - that's an exceptional event.

On '22 onwards we should know by the FY 21 results what

guidance will be.

Consensus appears to be at 64 pence, however that's an

estimate Only.

It also may be a little too high imv.

The current dividend size is a hindrance, not a help.

Thanks for the view, I had a few today, whether that was any type
of interim low can't pretend to know, will leave that for markets to decide.

I would just say more generally that the rush to cyclicals may be a tad
overdone now - however that's very much a guessestimate only.

The stock market is known as "the great humiliator" for a good reason.

Price moves often confound expectations!.

Looks pretty fully priced to me? looking right out to (current)
FY 2023 consensus.

It can always trade higher and it's admittedly a high quality business
with supportive longer term market dynamics.

Will have a read of the statement tomorrow, might be missing something!.

Yes, a very bad mistake, at least in terms of GSK.

I cautioned many times on AZN not to buy in to that
parabolic 2020 vaccine hype train, particularly as it was underlined
in red there was no commercial return during a pandemic.
Touching £100 a share was completely unwarranted.

Some of the US highly geared plays on COVID-19 now starting to
unwind very quickly indeed. Ugly.

I have no idea the fascination discussing a non commercial Covid-19 vaccine.

There may possibly be some return post pandemic,

When a successful vaccine will have to compete

with perhaps 15 plus other candidates.

It's perhaps accorded more significance by some who

do not fully grasp the scale of GSK.

Gardasil this isn't!.

Then you've done very well, congrats.

Nope, not the point I made at all.

Personally I do trade as well as invest, but what I outlined

is not a trading strategy, it's an income and growth one.

However, you need to do what works for you.

I dont know your personal circumstances. Good luck in any case.

Well yes we could.

I may die tomorrow, but I don't expect that will happen.

Factors include- Wider equity markets taking a tumble, Cable decisively

breaking through the 1.42 level and the yields on bonds rising further

over the next few weeks.

Also worth keeping in mind that prices tend to overshoot in either direction,

£100 was ridiculous and I warned about the hype at the time,

that was a gift from the gods to Sell.

£60 may be a gift level to Buy at - barring something left field

or material adverse company news.

And there's a very easy way of checking this.

Take the AZN December 2019 price, before we had even heard of COVID-19.

What we are seeing currently is a mixture of FX, bond yields

and a heavy rotation to cyclicals.

There is also another factor- AZN had a fantastic multi year run

and the Alexion deal was Not universally welcomed.

Personally I'm strongly in favour of the acquisition.

71 Covid-19 vaccines are in clinical trials,

20 of those now in Phase 3.

Another 78 in pre clinical trials.

As I've mentioned over the last 8 months, any idea

One vaccine is going to dominate is risible, not going to happen.

If there are future commercial return for a company as profitable as GSK,

it's likely to be so miniscule it may be a rounding error to the P&L.

Previously loss making biotechs such as Moderna are in a very different situation.

It also helps that Moderna appear to be charging a "premium" price.

How long that premium remains available is another matter,

with multiple other approvals to come.

Prior infection is providing sufficient immunity either

to prevent reinfection with a different strain and/or

that a subsequent infection is either asymptomatic/so mild

that it is not picked up in reported case numbers.