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The Oil is guaranteed to be down there in FD but Flow Rates are not. Often Horizontals in the area can be know to flow at 1250bopd (Art stated 1000 to 3000bopd) but after a month or so they can settle down to as low as 250bopd (In the Area). At up to $12m per Well (Need serious Capital for 100 Wells) this is why we cannot go at FD with Antone other than a Big Oiler.

That said / Of the 1b resource at FD / it is possible they know that 200mbo could come out unstimulated. If this turns out to be correct / That’s pretty massive in itself.

The diversity of the 3 Assets Copl have in Wyoming is perfect imo. You couldn’t wish to have more complimentary Asset mix vs our MCap and ambition.

Unrealistic.

“We” / I mean Copl on our own.

Glosman. We won’t be drilling any Horizontals at FD this year as they can cost up to $12m per Well. Correct me if I’m wrong Tiburn.. Hence the need for JV to monetise.

I simply believe We Have to Produce it Ourselves (5000) and that puts us in the Ball game to Negotiate better Terms on any JV and/or future debt.

Shaa. This is my point exactly. Art has the money. At the very least he should release a FDP with Timeline for Production to 5000bopd. So far …. No FDP (Yes he has been busy). If he does this / The SP would go up immediately without increased production.
I am cautiously optimistic.

Tiburn.

You are an experienced and knowledgeable Poster. That’s a given.

By what Date do we get to 5000 do you think ?

HarryWh. The same reason we are 5p on 1700 is the same reason we won’t be 20/25/30p on 5000. To get to 5000 costs money. In case anyone on here has already forgotten / our current debt structure is crippling us. We have a Banking Crisis - Rising Interests rates will not help restore this.
5000 will not address our debt structure until we can demonstrate we have a mechanism where investment delivers returns over 18 pay back on debt for development cost.
Maybe I am on same line as you re expectation but I’m on the inside lane of the motorway and you in the fast lane.
I’d be amazed if JV happens this year. Can happen next year if we sort our housekeeping out. Takes time to deliver Value.

Yes I’m saying 9 to 9.9p by end of this year. That’s nearly 100% increase in SP !! I think this is high degree of possibility. It’s no easy task getting to 5000. We know we are breakeven at 1500 ish. We may have to take more debt on (but structured to benefit of Copl) re any new Well development. At the same time we need cash in the bank. We cannot go through another Winter with Financial Risk.
Like an aeroplane taking off. You need great inertia at the beginning. So this will only translate into SP once understanding occurs and that will take time. No double digit rise in production or SP until 2024 as this year we basically have 6 month to get this steel pipe resolved on focus on the current Wells performance. So anew drilling will be minimal activity 1 or 2 imo.
My SP prediction maybe folly to some, but 9p is solid and can give a platform to continued SP appreciation throughout 2024. All imo.

If someone wants to come on here and predict 20p by DEC 2023 then crack on..

Things will change once Copl get to a stage where they can fund their own Well development / or at least in part (Capping debt at 50% per Well / Net payback 18 month) and grow production. First base is 5000. Second base is double Figs. If ART can release a FDP this year with Timescales / then this will grow the SP again.
No JV until we prove the Oil flows. No RBL until we get to 5000. Imo. That’s why I say 2 years to recover SP / however 5000 can be achieved this year so <6 months can see high single digits but solid.

2 Questions actually.

1 / A Company (X)wants to Short the Company / so it goes knocking on the door of a Holder or An Institution that Holds and says / Will you lend me your Shares for 12 month ? I’ll give you 3/4/5% Fee or whatever. Institution says yes have them / Gets Paid. Company (X) starts the Shorting process. Repeats etc etc. Is that how it happens basically ?

2 / Does the Institution who was approached by Company (X) always remain anonymous / private / Non Disclosure ? So could a Director or MM himself in theory lend his Shares out for them to be Shorted ? In theory. Or are there restrictions re Directors ?

That’s about 4 Questions. Apologies but important.

Hopefully I’ve been clear.

Guess not then.

Hi. I am Invested in THG. I have a Question / Example re Shorting that I’d like clarifying if someone / more knowledgeable Poster can help on here ?
If you can help please say so and I will Share my Example as I am about 80% there on my understanding.
Thank you.

Yes JB.
We need to keep on our Toes.
We need to continue to Share experience on here.

Yes. Market Manipulation. Absolutely.

And still none of the 24 Likes have given a date for £320 to £400m MCap. Now if that’s not Organised / Coercive Behaviour. I don’t know what is… Enough said.

Not getting anywhere. Hard to get my point across by this method of communicating / so I’ll continue my belief that MM’s cannot cover many large buys over £5k and £10k (100 to 250.000 Shares). They want to spread out demand by limiting individual buys to usually below £2000 (10.000 Shares). They’ll facilitate a Buy at £5k and above / but you’ll have to pay way over Market Price. This is why you see multiple £1k and £2k (10.000 Shares) Trades. They were allowing £10k Buys (500.000 Shares) at 2p. Not a problem then. If you’ve got £10 grand in the Bank and want to buy now / then barriers go up. Thank you for your help.

In a Nutshell the Market Makers would have to risk reducing their own liquidity in the Stock if they honoured larger Buys early in the day. They don’t want to reduce their position on Ciz and that’s why you see 10.000 Shares bought multiple times rather than 1 x 500.000. This would push price up even more as MM’s have to re fuel their position at the end of play.
If all the Private Investors decide to take Long Positions / then tne MM’s are scratching around for Shares.
Moral to story is SP should be higher than 4.25p because demand is there as MM’s turning down Buyers who want 500.000 Shares in 1 go. The Market is not fluid.
You say Market is fluid / I beg to differ. When MM’s are turning down Big Buys.

Good luck next week. Let’s see what the level the Buys come in at. You’d expect some 250.000 / 500.000 Buys in the day or week. The MM’s only quoting these requests at far higher than current Market Price. This can put Investors off who then commit to Buying less than originally planned for / Thus demand is curbed 10/20%.

I’ve already briefed this BB re I3E. I was Invested and successfully so after a lot of heart ache and averaging down. (I’m hoping same scenario here).
Just imo but the reason I am Invested here vs I3E is that I3E has much less potential to grow its SP.
Imo the Dividend there is Great but masks the much Shorter Reserve Life of the oil. The SP has been reducing / fighting to maintain despite increasing divi.
Here the Oil should keep producing for 30/40 years (If we ever get it out) and thus has greater potential to bag on the current SP.
So in I3E the Wells will start the natural Decline. So they need more and more Wells until pop. Here the Wells appear to be no Decline in sight if they can fund it.
Horses for Courses I suppose.

Gutted re Oil Price. Didn’t need that just now. I accept this may delay things but hope we remain stable until Price recovers. I go by GSachs who are usually spot on. Recovery 2nd half of year.

Yes Agree with the 170m in Nominee Accounts. So who has the remaining 73m or so when you strip out Martin Lang / Dawn and Cancer Trust ??

Exactly how do you calculate the 170m ?? In simple terms …