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Sorry Stalwart I have no idea either. I’m just learning about Shorts now and about 50% understand it.

This is a PFG chatroom so this is my Final Post re Scottlee somewhat Negative View on NSF HC.
Hardman Research 27/3/18.
Year end Agents 2016 was 785 rising to 1005 Half Year 2017 with attraction of PFG Agents. (That’s 28%).
Branches rose by 22 same period.
Extra Cost (Excluding New Offices) re Commission Structure as a Result of this was 1.8m to 3.2m.

Obv you go back to 2015. Either way / given this Growth then I would expect Profit for 2018 to start showing improvements on your £5m in Old Money ? You have to Factor in some Extra Costs of transition so I would be disappointed should Profit for 2018 not hit £8m ?

I think the goal there is £10m / Annum once Full Weight If Cost has been truly absorbed.

We shall see in the Results. Coming to an RNS near you soon !!!

PFG HC are loosing cash and lots of it. They will never return to the £110m/Annum. However I wish them well because I’m here to Re Invest when I think they are close to Returneth of the Dividend. Could be 2 yr off unless T/O goes through because Delaying these Results is Bad Bad News.

Woodford and Investors need their money back. I think they must be minimum 60% loss since the Crash. The Bigger money for Woodford is Merging NSF with PFG and getting that Dividend 2 yr early. But will Competition Commission let it be Voted through ?

I dunno ..

After Flybe steal via Connect airways I really cannot believe we are back down to £1.50 ish. I was on here considering Investing few Months back. Upon checking back in I cannot believe Stobart still in 150’s.
Anyone like to enlighten me why Price so low. Really ... ?

Once again, have to disagree with you on NSF Home Credit. If you think Branch and Agent size have doubled / then I can assure you they have not doubled. If you think they have / maybe you can enlighten All re Numbers ? 30 to 60 branches ? 500 to 1000 Agents ? Ready when you are ...
NSF Home Credit is far more successful than PFG. Just wait for the numbers !!
However I do not wish to argue. Just pointing toward what is more accurate.

Re the T/O. I do find it bizarre the situation. Does it not matter what the PFG Board do ? As Investors 50% are pushing this through. Does it come to a Vote and need 75% ? And what happens re the bid price £5 vs £6 ? Maybe that’s why SP gone up if 25% scrambling to gain Share to Stop this going to NSF.
AGM will be interesting.
At moment it’s a bit like Ryanair. All News is free publicity.

One could expect a Redundancy announcement of Non Customer facing Employees perhaps ? To demonstrate Cost Cutting upon announcement of Results ? They need to demonstrate Action is being taken to support Turnaround.
Watch out for 200 Redundancies...

Make no mistake. Any Delay for announcing Results under these circumstances is what it is - A Delay Tactic. If I was Holding here I would Sell as I wouldn’t want to be left holding the baby.
Advisors have stated NSF Offer is Best PFG could hope for given failure to turn around the business.

I hope I am wrong but please be aware of the Gap £6 to £5 re NSF offer. Why Delay the Results ? Because they are Exploring all Options to Protect Shareholder Value as is. Means they may have to accept the Offer ?

Agree with you Scott re NSF Loan at Home Profit puzzles me. If it was making £5m Profit Per Annum before (I have not researched) and now making £5m Profit (About right) then why no increase when Collections have increased dramatically due to Prov Agent fallout ?
I know the goal is to generate £10m Profit there.

Re the £50m Overpay/ I disagree. At £6m / yr Profit you could pay up to £100m for that Company with or without significant Assets.
Otherwise set up your own Company from scratch with No Talent / No Staff / No Customer / with nothing. Good look in spending £30m to make £6m a year Profit in Year 1. Nope.

I think PFG results will be poor. Given that Woodford and Invesco Both Own 50% of NSF and 50% of PFG, then the NSF T/O can only be to soften the blow out of PFG and thus restore confidence to the New World with NSF management structure controlling all. Woodford and Invesco are taking over their own Shares.

Little has been Reported about method / success / results of Home Credit Recovery Plan In PFG. Things have got worse.
Transversely on NSF side / Everyday Loans have demonstrated a successful Business model. This is where the synergy is.
Allow PFG to roll out Everyday Loans into greater Post Code coverage as PFG currently do have full UK coverage / then this is where the Benefit lay in the Merger.

What I cannot understand is why Woodford / along with Invesco kept inc their stake in PFG. We on the frontline could see it would pop and they could not ? I find that most Strange.
That said of course the Company is Grossly Undervalued at £1.4B But they do have legacy Costs of OverStaffing to address. And any NSF T/O needs a mass clear out.
I think this may be Woodford’s ploy ? If PFG Is T/O by NSF / his current holding in a £1.4B MCap Company could be protected with Redundancy announces forthcoming by the very fact a New Management Structure.
Ie : If PFG cont as is. Figures Released could spell serious loss of SP. So better to bring in NSF Management Structure who have good Figures (They are good) and have a clean sweep and soften the Blow of the PFG deterioration.
Woodford trying to Negate the loss he will incur in the Bigger Company.
NSF £200m MCap. PFG £1.4b MCap. People can do the math.

BetterX. I can categorically state and evidence if you like / Why the SP will absolutely NOT return to MCap of £4.5billion as was 2 years ago. Those days are gone.

I know enough. Ask away if any PI has any doubts,

Starance. Divestment is the opposite to Investment, Divestment therefore refers to sale of Assets. Flybe have a lot of Assets. The whole debarcke was brought about from Credit Card needing more £ held on Account dipped to low Share Price. COW puts Company up for Sale as cannot find a way to raise cash ? Or could she ?
So they then start to Sell Assets off to funnel this money to Credit Card requirements.
We needed Virgin to guarantee the Credit Card and only Offer on table so COW had to recommend it. I get that now. But in mean time we can cont to identify and Sell off Assets to cover the CC shortfall. Hence the long Stop date of 22 Feb. If we cannot raise cash by Sale of Assets by then or another bidder then Virgin have it.

The 1p was token offer but sadly it may go through ???

Flybe did not meet the Criteria for full £20m injection because the managed to Sell those 2 slots.

This makes sense. Also Tinklers 12% at 3p or whatever is a simple hedge. If Flybe Divestment works and remain then he Wins. If T/O goes through / he knows the Value goes to his Stobart holding. Smart move - and does Point towards the fact that Flybe can remain independent.

Gustavio. My theory makes sense.

Only £10m was taken because certain Criteria were not met / hence they neede £10m to stay a float having managed to Sell the 2 Slots.

Maybe Connect ideal is to not do the T/O hence Flybe’s Divestment Strategy. Flybe have a lot of Assets. Once the £20m is funnelled to the Credit Card demand (due to low SP) then Flybe can continue to trade. This is why the £20m was not given straight away.

Virgin don’t particularly want this but if Divestment doesn’t work then 1p done deal.

Does anyone agree with me this is possible ?

The Deal has been done for 1p to stop Liquidation / However High Asset Value so if the Divestment works (already started 2 Slots Sold £5m Hanger Sold) then Flybe May be able to trade as is. I don’t think Virgin particularly want this as things goes as lower Profit return for every pound pumped in compared to long haul.
Virgin like the close relationship as is but have stepped in to save the Comapny.

If the BOD can do effective Divestment the Connect Airways can be withdrawn and Flybe remain independent Company. Hence 22 Feb deadline to deliver Divestment.

This is how I think it can go.

At least Colin Hutch has the next AGM to look forward to.

I mean ... They making us having to raise funds for a Compressor for our failing Well / when they could have granted the Permit to re stimulate. No communication. So let’s go Legal. But we don’t go Legal.. Nothing ... Time ticks by. Raise more money. Money wasted as Permit drives Income and Cost efficient method of producing Gas.

FX - Wiz. Hear Hear.

I should have known when I originally Invested that CH coming back with Positive Discussions on Permits .... I was thinking at the time.... If I was Government I would not be happy with what he was saying.

It’s a done deal, etc. He was too under the line. “Permits coming within the next Month etc... “ Naaaahhhh...

The only way they get Any Reward out of Petisovci is via a Take it or Leave it Situation vs Legal Action. They don’t want there land poked and prodded by any drill. That said it is a good deal for them if they allow 100% of Cost to be covered and reap the Tax / whilst implementing fines on AST if we break environment rules.

Obvs they need to extend license beyond 2022 so something will happen one way or another.

Obvs Colin by staying will not fully wind up AST just yet. So one last throw at dice to regain Credibility ?

Bruce. Why would anyone buy this for 4.4p ???? Someone bought £90.000 and £45.000 at 5p !! this morning ???
Madness surely ??

What would happen if I ran the Company ?

SP would tumble because I would tell the truth. So CH done a good job so far (Post CC chubba chops).
Company in dire straits due to nothing going to Plan.
CH done PB to keep it going / not happy but necessary really.

But ask yourself ....

This is a new dawn. So set out your Strategy inc Goals to achieve on production and RNS them Monthly.
Set out your meetings with Arso and Leben to est Timelines and Report Back only Facts to SH.

He has done nothing. All we know is £18.000 gone to CC for PB and the remaining £331k goes to a Compressor to help out the low productivity Well.

Colin Hutchinson at least communicate how the £349k PB May help contribute to SH Value in the long term.

Set out your basic Costs and Returns and communicate to SH as you have an Opportunity here to restore faith and build trust re AST. This would attract interest instead of non commital on Next 12 Months.

If the 1p Offer and Connect T/O was withdrawn due to cash injection allowing Flybe to cont under current Credit Card demand what would SP be ? .... The recovery Plan was working re efficiency savings. Report Sep 2018.