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Per the Rights Issue Prospectus the EBITDA to June 2023 was £158m. Also, the Prospectus talks about at least doubling this as reasonable (a medium term opinion not a forecast).

Taking £316M (2 x £158M) as a start point for EBITDA in the medium term, and taking off depreciation of £100M and interest of £60M (my estimates from the 2022 accounts and the latest half year figures) gives a PBT of £156M, assuming no other items. With a tax rate of 22% (my estimate) you get a PAT of £122M. Assume a P/E ratio of (say) 10 and you get a market value of £1.2BN. And with 164M (new) shares in issue this gives a price per share of around £7.50.

Finally, I am not giving a view, I am just doing sums. You will change assumptions as you wish. Thoughts?

The new management have a challenging task in a difficult market, but seem to be taking the appropriate steps – focussing the business, selling off non-core areas, renegotiating credit lines to maintain appropriate liquidity levels, driving down costs etc. I don’t understand the sector or know the management well enough to comment knowledgably, but the steps they have taken seem to me to make sense. To me the core business should have a reasonable future in all but the most extreme of economic circumstances. My strategy is to invest not trade. I will stay with them.