RE: hold or sell31 May 2020 23:52
adg good to see you have done some research which should show a level of consistency. Some of us who enjoyed a good dividend return highlighted sometime ago the wisdom to pay such a high div when the debt pile had grown. The group had increased greater debt with the aquistitions, particularly the Charles Wells deal. Now regrettably events have caught up with Marstons. The deal with Carlsberg is a God-send and will at least enable the company to reduce debt. Even though the JV does have benefits, I make no secret of concerns a Major partner may inflict on the Junior. Hope those thoughts prove wrong....only time will tell.
The full effects of the pandemic is yet to emerge, What is clear many Business sectors will struggle to survive, some will disappear, the upshot being huge unemployment and consequential diminished disposable income.
All the unknowns, it is impossible to predict when Marstons will return to a level of profits which allow a return to the dividend list. Even then and with deposit rates remaining at or close to Zero, dividends generally will not return quickly.
I disagree, recession is imminent, even the Chancellor is preparing us for very troubling economic times. In his words far worse than anything seen for decades.
One of my businesses was in the Cider Industry, am still connected to a minor extent, and have a number of contacts in both Cider and Beer production.
It is already estimated National debt has grown by £300billion and likely to approach 600 by the end of October.
Your prediction of £1-1.20 within a year would be very welcome, however caution is suggested.
AIMO