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Whereas the Carlsberg deal is a life saver for Marstons ( debt grew to almost unsustanable levels), they will be the major partner. Do not under estimate not only the benefits but also Carlberg have shareholders too.
It should be noted under the terms of the agreement Marstons must retain at least 50% of the estate ( Pubs etc) otherwise in breach of the JV.
The company is probaly under-valued against all known information, however there are a number of unknown factors going forwards .
The market has/will form a view.

DA true, but only bottled and canned product and not Draft which is by and large the bulk of sales at Pubs.

There was an issue with supply of bottles and cans which created a shortage for some retailers.

The AGM was in January, thursday meeting is an update of Interims which have been postponed from May, and acceptance of the Carlsberg deal.

Too many are looking at the World through rose tinted glasses. Remember the company will be making an update this week, which should go some way towards indicating the direction of travel.
As mentioned many times, Pubs were in decline before CV19, and will now speed up the "cull".
How many Pubs ( closed currently) are you seeing, look untidy, in need of a good clean ( externally). Would'nt this lockdown have been an ideal time to smarten up the appearance? Who is going to be attracted by a tardy looking pub?

Further information please as most Breweries only commenced brewing 2 weeks ago.

amtech disagree. The current size of this company financial monitoring and planning could easily be done by a competent Accountant. Would you employ a full-time Accountant with all the on-costs or outsource where a qualified Contractor is endemified against all claims. A direct employee is covered by the employer.
As for the CEO, well with the workload at present, see no reason why the 2 posts are not joined.
There does seem to be a lax attitude towards cash control.

We know that, but who did the job before January?
It is not as if there is a massive number of transactions to monitor and as for planning, wasn't that done a year ago with the placing to see us through.
What is the justification for this post which could not be undertaken by an outside Contractor?
Does the CFO work full-time?

afraid Shareholders are only useful for one thing....fund raising, thereafter to be ignored.
The CFO job smells of an "old pals" act!!

Do wonder who arranges and agrees an Employment Contract which creates such generous conditions.

Does anyone know who did the work associated with the current CFO's job description, prior to her arrival?

How many Pubs do Marstons have in NI?

could be a whole raft of concerns which is making many in the market nervious. The emergence of further Covid cases in China is clearly having an effect.

mike suspect the next news will be OGA Licence awards and that is now not dues until Q3.

Trent we are on the same Hymn sheet.
No one knows what the eventual outcome of this pandemic is going to be not only Economically, but to Societies generally.

The illusion many seem to be under...…..everything will return to normal within a year or so, are really fooling themselves.
There are/have been astute investors who have/are making a lot of money. The market we are in facilitates Traders, the trick is knowing where to be and when to get out. Such investors, wisely, keep their mouths shut.
Interestly the note the large number of new posters on many sites since lockdown. Maybe they are bored or possibly believe a pot of gold exists to be found in this market. Unless they are lucky it might have been best to keep furlough/ loan funds in a safe place.
I do believe the market will face another adjustment once the true cost of this pandemic is known....at present it is pure guesswork.
The World is not going to return to what we have known and we all need to adjust our expectations.
econ
Warren Buffett is often mentioned, being a Guru of the Market, even he has serious misgivings where economies are heading, sold huge chunks of his portfolio and now sitting on an enormous Cash-pile.

One issue which is yet to be evaluated, there are others, the current Global situation is presenting Climate Change activists with a gold opportunity to influence Economies going forward. Do not underestimate the potential changes which will get traction. Just keep your eyes open!!!

AIMO. GLA

In return for loan waivers, with Banks, Mitchells and Butler have agreed to pause dividend payments until after year end September 2021.

Speculators will not determine the value of the SP, that is a market function. Whether it remains in the present range or moves above £1, some have stated 120-150, one even stated £3, is pure speculation.
The company faces significant head-winds, as do most hospitality co's. No one knows the final and lasting effects of the Pandemic, talk in Government circles of 5-6 million unemployed, by the end of the year will have a devastating effect.
The deal with Carlsberg is a life-saver, without it we would be in deep do do, however initial integration of the Brewing businesses will have resource costs.
It has long been known, way before CV-19, tenants enjoyed deferred rent payments that were dependant on beer sales, some rent arrears have been treated as bad debts and WO. Listening to Publicans, that situation is likely to increase significantly.
The SP has been underpinned by assets which some believe are undervalued and will be re-valued. Those who believe need to examine recent history where even the CEO had no confidence in the Estate valuations, selling assets at a significant discount.
The Carlsberg UK team are no slouches and will bring a breathe of fresh air into Fiscal management. Marstons will be left with a Pub/Hotel estate which it is generally recognised, requires capital expenditure .

AIMO. DYOR

Listening to Financial Columnists needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Looking at financials superficially sells papers and keeps sponsors happy.
Logistics dictate, brewers require adequate notice for re-opening, it takes 5 weeks to produce a saleable beer. Myabe confidentially Gov, have given the nod....we hope.

As far as interim results bearing in mind it is up to the end of March only 2 weeks after lockdown, effects to the figures should be minimal....it is the next 1/2 year which is going to be dramatic. Considering release of interims have been delayed, is it possible some accounting has occurred to ameliorate the disasterous figures to come?

Travelling around it is noticeable the number of Hostelries that appear abandoned.

Malteser at least someone is being realistic.

contd, and overlapped text

Even though £273m is a significant reduction in Marstons debt it still leaves over £1billion owed and due for settlement over short,medium and long term. Debt management will depend on income generation, which will not be great in the next couple of years, and asset liquidation, which could become a problem not only because of the uncertain/unknown economic landscape, but the conditions within the agreement with Carlsberg. Under the agreement Marston will be in breach should the company dispose of more than 50% of it’s retail estate.



It is highly likely, within 5 years, Carlsberg will have full control on CMBC. JV’s with Carlsberg do appear, usually, to be not long lasting.

Barchid,



My view was re-inforced when considering the failed sale of Pitcher and Piano last summer, against the background to reduce the debt pile. The deal with Admiral then completed, at a considerable discount, in November. RF then stated, in the annual report, the intention to reduce debt by a further £200K by 2023. I do not believe RF is a strong negotiator, the experience with the P & P deal influenced his desire to keep debt under control . The Admiral deal was done at a big discount.

Intent to keep the ball-rolling, and we do not know who approached who ( Carlsberg or Marstons) negotiations proceeded towards a JV. End of February/ely March it became clear a major obstacle (Covid) was on the horizon and there was no telling how it would play out ( still does’nt). This engaged minds, Marstons especially, and the deal was struck. Carlsberg do have a formidable Executive team in the UK. Re-inforced in January by the appointment of a Vice-President of Production, a man who has considerable experience.

It is conjecture, but reasonable to assume the effects of the pandemic weighed heavily on RF’s mind, who could see the debt reduction target was in jeopardy and therefore took Carlsberg’s offer, which to be fair puts Marstons in a far better place.
We want to see a good balance sheet and eventual return to profits and dividend, but do not be under any illusion. The current year’s balance sheet is going to look awful and next year given recovery, integration of the businesses into CMBC will not come without initial costs, which will ultimately achieve savings and better profitabilty. Carlsberg have 11% of the Uk Beer market yet have 1 major brewery in Northampton and a much smaller Craft Brewery in London. By contrast Marstons have 6 breweries throughout the Midlands,Eastern Counties and Southern England. The New group will have 8 breweries in total. It is conceivable this will reduce by half, could even see only 3 breweries eventually. It would make economic sense to displace Bedford and Wychwood and one of the New Forest properties. The question then remains is Wolverhampton closed and production transferred to Burton where a modern plant exists and further space for enlargement. These could be painful decisions, but unlikely the Carlsberg team will shy away from such significant cost savings. A fly in the ointment could be caveats regarding the retention of the Wells Brewery in Bedford, am not sure how rigid and legally binding the transfer agreement was when Marston acquired in 2017. No doubt the power of Carlsberg would overcome.

Even though £273m is a significant reduction in Marstons debt it still leaves over £1billion owed and due for settlement over short,medium and long term. Debt management will depend on income generation, which will not be great in the next couple of years, and asset liquidation, which could become a problem not only because of the uncertain/unknown economic landscape, but the con

doze incorrect the deal was struck in May, negotiations commenced pre-covid. The issues/pressures already identified no doubt hastened agreement.
What brewing synergies that have not been mentioned, do you anticipate will materialise?

To be clear Marstons will have a share in a NEW brewing Company, CMBC, and will receive £273m for what?
What does that payment from Carlsberg represent? Can those who believe MARS will still have control over brewing please explain? Have yet to see a Junior Partner in a JV dictate to the Major holder......Carlsberg WILL call the shots.
Think of this, for a few more Million Carlsberg could take Marstons over but maybe find the Pub and Motel Estate unattractive.
Even though Whitbread, generally regarded as a pioneer in competitive Pub/Motels are raising, through a Rights issue, £1billion. This follows the windfall of £2bilion from Pepsi, 2 years ago,. WTB's balance sheet has no where near proportionate debt level of Marstons.