Member Info for Fagen39

Topped up again at 90.

Card just created a Higher Low, next stop higher high above 115. fingers crossed

GLA

Why would Next bid.........? You would have to looks at online visits and average spend metrics of the two businesses.

But without this data I believe Next is already winning (growing and profitable), and closing / adding ASOS wouldn't add anything except remove a major competitor.

IMO Next would only mop them up from administration as they did with Joules (but that was more about the brand).

Royal Mail have just released (preorder) for Warhammer stamps.

Good to see another partnership, I hope they sell well (I brought a few)

I think they could stretch the cash for another 6 months and should have a bump up for the summer holiday season (hopefully clearing higher cost inventory).

They will get help from deflation as they purchase new stock at lower costs, reducing their working capital in H2. There is a way through for them if they flip their stock quickly (especially if they are quicker than the competition).

We need CARD to be the first to announce and implement AI generated cards. It can’t be too difficult there are already free image AI generation tools available.

Retail would just buy spot if they want additional exposure, can't see a reason to buy via the offer.

But unfortunately also unsure if I would top up/ average down at all on ASOS at the moment.

Even with fees buying just c.85 shares £350 would negate fees vs the offer (£4.06 vs £4.18).

I agree, I topped up at £110, and will top up again if it continues to drop.

CARD is being looked at as a 'Growth' stock purely because it doesn't pay a divi anymore. I see this more as a positive cashflow and future (1-2yrs) divi stock again. Even if we go into a recession I think CARD and its strategy will hold up okay, so happy to accumulate for the longer term here.

Clean Spark is a clear winner for the additional BTC fee distribution reflecting in share price.

ARB is lagging behind and I don't believe it's yet fully reflecting the BTC rewards increase, I topped up at 12 and will only top up again if it goes substantially lower.

Personally I would wait for a big red day to start layering into DARK.
H2 is going to be volatile on all stocks so no rush to pile cash in here there will be plenty of other opportunities when H2 comes.

If you have limited cash, please sit on your hands until half 2.
It's likely to get very messy and you should be able to pick up great shares at good value (but it will be very volatile).
I still have 20% cash and am only buying into flip situations where I think I can sell out to gain free shares. I will only sit on some new purchases & I still have my 80% hold shares.

Patience is key this year, its very tough to do nothing and wait.

Hi,
Card could easily clear their debt in the next 2 years (or more likely re-negotiate the debt to a lower rate) and then it can focus on:
1) Creating revenue growth in South Africa. Another purchase is likely need to implement their business model here. Hopefully another cheap one.
2) Dividends can then be reopened after 1 or 2 years depending on interest rates on debt/ debt reduction.

The financials (EPS) came in lower than I expected 12 vs 15 and cash flow was only 'okay', which keeps the SP down for now but I believe now is still a very good entry level for the medium/long term. Debt reduction at the current higher rates agreed will compound into benefits for future cash flow.
A lot of wider market uncertainty in the short term which could impact Card but if anybody truly knows where that is going then please give me a heads up.
GLA

I am of the opinion that cash flow could be the highlight on the results day. GLA

Just doubled my shareholding, was going to wait for £1 but it may not get there.
Slight risk from US big tech results this week but the upside is clear here.
GLA

Correction 0.3%........ still very small
Just incase anybody picks up my bad maths.

The new shares created do not add any additional value so dilute current shareholders & share price by 0.03% (so very very small). 1,050,000 / 343,000,000 = 0.03%
The shares are created to reward key employees to stay for a set period of time e.g. if you stay 3 years we will give you shares as a reward.

Just run a comparison of CARD vs MOON.
Caveat we do know the latest CARD results, but not MOON's so I am using historic.

Moon
MCap £441m, PE 21.5, EPS 0.06, Revenue £300-370m, EBITDA £63m, Cash £100m, Long Term Debt £170m, Cash generated LY £45m. SP -33% 1yr.

Card
MCap £375m*, PE 8-10, EPS 0.15, Revenue £360m, EBITDA £112m, Cash £38m*, Long Term Debt £110m, Cash generated LY £107m. SP +88% 1yr.

*Card should easily have the same market cap as MOON +20% (I would say higher), Card free cash needs improving hopefully the results improve this.

This is a strong buy IMO Moon is a lot smaller and weaker vs Card than I thought before doing this.
Another thought would be that if CARD has good results how does this affect MOON, does this indicate card is winning (stealing share) or the whole card market has seen a bump up since Covid?

GLA

Agreed, I originally came here for the low cost, high cash flow, disruptive style of the business.

we are both indicating up…… just different styles for how high… I enjoy the maths and logic once I’m already sold on the company. It’s not for everybody.

Should be another green day tomorrow. GLA

The 16 PE currently is too high for Card (calculated from a bad year with some post Covid hope) and the industry average, using 10-12 is more realistic.

But things can always run hot and let’s hope it does, the chart shows no resistance up to 1.60. I wouldn’t sell at 112 here personally, 125 should be achievable based on numbers.

Okay I found the reason for the drop in Jan 2020:
Card issued a profit downgrade due to a bad Christmas and stopped paying dividends.

So being back at £52m earnings and an EPS of £0.15 is likely to give us an increase but its unlikely to be +£1.50 unless they reintroduce a dividend, which could come with the results (fingers crossed).
GLA

The SP hit 80p on 29th March....... (after I sold 1/3 of my shares at 92p)
By buy order didn't execute as ii do manual trades from orders. But was very close to fully plating out.
I still hold 2/3 so am happy and it all profits from previous trades.
Card is one of my best performing shares.