Member Info for Fagen39

Lots of bigger buys coming through at £3 before the US opens on a positive BTC day.

Feels like a good place to layer in again.

No guaranteed that BTC & DAGB wont dip again.

My view is that we will need to see further clarity on the funding raise by Mode via an RNS before we come out of suspension. This would likely lay out the placing to existing shareholders and the share dilution via new shareholders. Then once they have the cash another RNS will confirm terms with Redwood.

I am interested to see the terms of any open offer weighed up vs the size of new capital coming in (I imagine most will be new capital so they have certainty).

Redwood's banking approach is simple. Its a small challenger bank that takes on higher risk for higher returns.

These banks have issues when liquidity dries up and the higher risk comes back to bite them.

Same as all challenger banks their balance sheets do not look pretty and in reality does not reflect their true liabilities, which is where they hide the risks that make them go pop (CRE, Bonds, leverage etc.....).

Metro Bank having issues, £70m market cap & Requires £600m to help its balance sheet. This could be the next government bailout.

It also goes back to, I wonder what comes as baggage with Redwood Bank.

When R8 comes to shareholders for more £'s are you going to increase your exposure before the RTO?

GLA

Yes there is the risk of a global recession/downtrend but unless you are short term playing that then its going to offer good entry / top up points for long term holders.

GAW is a long long term hold for me so even if a market drop comes I will just hold through it and add where possible to long term hold and quality positions.

You need to be clear on why you are investing and for how long. Personally 75%+ of my invested capital is long term 10yrs, 20% medium term cycles that I play for a specific reasons over 1-5yrs & 5% for short term flips up to 1yr to keep me busy.

I hope this helps,

Good Luck

I really hope I'm wrong and we get a significant win from this, that is why I'm here.

If the UK can host the next crypto on/off ramp bank to replace the hole that Silvergate left that could be big.

GLA

From what I see he has a foot in both businesses.

If he can 'sell' the retail bank that delivers c.£2-3m in profit annually for £50m of fresh cash and reduce his exposure that is a win for him. Probably still a loss overall but he gets some exit liquidity.

I don't follow the sentiment here, we are not being purchased for +£50m, we are going to make the purchase and therefore need to raise the debt/cash via shareholder investment/dilution?

I see the below as likely:

- An existing shareholder placing

- Bringing in additional shareholders

Small banks are after capital and this could be a way to help Redwood. Longer term the bank could grow but I am not 100% convinced there is a big win on the table yet. I hope I am proved wrong and we are all in for a 20-25x.

GLA

Its probably seen as fairly valued around its current SP vs trading. It would need new news to go higher.

The likely things that could do this are:

- Special Dividends (which it has done in the past)

- Amazon TV News

Otherwise its a hold, enjoy the divi and buy more if there is a big overall market dip that brings it down into a good value area.

GLA

I would be interested to know which shareholder (if known) has been selling into the weakness.

A nice higher high and higher lows forming on the daily

GLA

My view is that the results will show an improvement in profitability but a reduction in growth which will give us a red day.

Long term I think people will move online and Ocado has a great service that sets the standard for others to follow.

GLA

Blackrock are not always right

Blackrock reduced their position slightly which combined with the Divi reduction could easily explain the drop.

GAW has the potential to explode into a much larger thing once on TV........ think Marvel or Star Wars and all of the spin offs those have.

That, the divi & the love of the lore is why remain 100% invested in GAW and would love to pick up more.

GLA

The spread on this share is huge, I have had a buy order sitting at £2 for ages.

I am patient...... but also happy to move on if it doesn't hit.

GLA

Does anybody know anything about the largest shareholder in Mode, JR Spac 1 Limited with c.20% equity?

I can't find much on them at all.

The No2 shareholder Aurora with 13.5% equity is owned by BNP Paribas (which is a positive sign).

The other shareholders are pretty straight forward from a cursory glance.

GLA

Delayed results, possibly due to them trying to line up the below:

Quote from Odyssean (now a 6% shareholder):

"Possible separation of Escrow. Cross sell of products across US and

UK Escrow operations. Build out Assurance product offering"

GLA

Results are okay'ish, but the overall profitability of the company is a worry.

The real issue is cash, why have they spent so much in the last 12m without a clear cash buffer in a low liquidity market.

I am only in here for a small amount........ but they are going to need cash from somewhere very soon.

GLA