Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
6.38 The Department’s overall assessment is that the existing policy on natural gas is not adequate to address the range of risks considered fully and therefore ensure security of our gas supplies in the medium to long-term. While five key risks have been identified and considered in detail, other risks could emerge. Aside from reducing demand and increasing renewable gas, the key tools for gas supply risk management are diversity of supplies and increasing gas storage. These tools, which other Member States have utilised, have secured Europe’s gas supplies over the course of the last year in the face of a major disruption to gas supplies from Russia. Ireland’s diversity of supply is very limited and it has no gas storage.
6.39 Furthermore, the State is operating outside legal requirements set out in EU legislation”
Page 29
“7.6 Ireland does not currently allow, under primary legislation, for new exploration licences for either gas or oil to be granted. However, existing licence holders are permitted to continue to progress licences already granted. A significant number of consultation responses supported a change in Government position on this matter to reopen Ireland’s offshore for new gas exploration, with a number emphasising that this could be particularly valuable near the Corrib gas field where the infrastructure to land gas already exists.
7.7 The discovery of new indigenous natural gas reserves delivered to Ireland would enhance the security of our gas supplies. However, to issue new licences for exploration beyond existing authorisations would require a change in primary legislation and a reversal of Government policy. It would also require the roll-out of a large programme to encourage investment from oil and gas companies. Noting that many large oil and gas companies left Ireland following the decision to cease offering new licence areas (even though their existing licences were unaffected), investment conditions for petroleum exploration in Ireland are such that they would likely seek a significant level of reassurance on the policy before returning”
Page 35
“Recommendation
7.61 On the basis of a preliminary review, the Departmemt has identified an offshore Gas Emergency Reserve for use in the event of a disruption (provided through an FSRU) as an appropriate measure to address the identified risks to our gas security of supply, likely more feasible for implementation in the timeframe required, while also being compatible with the Climate Act requirements”
Page 44
“9.2 The Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications will bring a memorandum to Government for decision in Q2 2024 following detailed examination and business case development by the gas transmission system operator, Gas Networks Ireland (GNI)”
After reading this it is no wonder PG had an email saying “ this is our immediate priority “
Tick tock tick tock, 4 trading days until end of Q1
https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/276795/c7ca6839-05f5-4d7f-8db9-bbf12f4eba67.pdf#page=null
Page 20
“This analysis indicates a strategic FSRU as the only short-listed option that can fully mitigate unserved demand in Shock Scenario 4 and 5 which involves disruption of seven or 30 days of both gas interconnectors”
Page 21
“The CRU ‘2022 National Risk Assessment: Gas’10 highlights that Ireland is not fully compliant with the EU Infrastructure standard. Ireland’s N-1 has decreased from 85% in 2018 to 65% in 2022 and remains unable to meet the Infrastructure Standard (N-1) in the event of failure of its largest piece of gas infrastructure i.e., if the supply of gas via Moffat is partially disrupted Ireland will be unable to deliver sufficient gas from other entry points
to meet total demand on a 1 in 20 year peak-day”
“If Ireland is not able to meet its gas demand it could have very significant impacts on the country, depending on the timing and duration of any disruption to supplies, according to an ESRI working paper ‘The Cost of Natural Gas Shortages in Ireland’11 that was published in 2010. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) paper estimated the cost of disruptions in the supply of natural gas and found that (i) the cost of losing one day of gas-fired electricity amounts to 0.1-1.0 billion euro, depending on the time of week, the time of year, and the rationing scheme used, (ii) the cost of losing three months of gas-fired power could be as high as 80 billion euro or 50% of GDP and (iii) losing gas for heating for three months would add another 8 billion euro on average. In this paper, ESRI also discuss some options to increase Ireland’s security of supply and find that the cost is a small fraction of the avoided maximum damage. It is noted that this assessment does not cover the social impact of a gas supply disruption. The Department has requested ESRI to prepare an update to this analysis”
Page 24
“The Department’s view is that the level of risk presented by a technical disruption over the next decade is UNACCEPTABLE at the moment. It further notes that even if a regional approach could be taken to the N-1 infrastructure test as previously was the case, the Department does not consider this acceptable in addressing the risk.”
Page 27
“Overall Assessment
6.37 Gas will play a key role to support the secure transition to an energy system based on electrification and greatly increased renewables penetration. Reducing gas demand and increasing renewable gas production will reduce the impact of Ireland’s risk but the risks themselves will remain for at least a decade. The impact of any significant unplanned reduction in the country’s gas supplies would have severe economic and social impacts.
As Minister Ryan well knows!
This is the lunacy of the green accounting policy…
“Drax helps the UK government meet its climate targets because, on paper at least, the power station is treated as emission-free. This is because international carbon accounting rules state that greenhouse gas emissions from burning wood are counted in the country where the trees are felled as opposed to where they are burned.”
Drax: UK power station burns wood from rare forests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68381160
Also worth remembering PG’s amazing comments on MOU-3
“A phenomenal well”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thyYwq0VXTA&t=249s
With 40 years experience he’s trying his hardest to be conservative 🚀
Interesting mention of seismic.
For PRD “The area of minimum closure for Corrib South is covered by the same 3D seismic survey that extends over the Corrib gas field.”
“…consideration of its application for a successor authorisation to Licensing Option 16/26 Corrib South is hoped to be concluded during Q1 2024 and that the GSRO would be writing to the Company shortly in relation to this matter.”
High estimate is almost 1TCF.
Not long to go, Vermilion must be waiting in the wings. 🚀 🚀🚀
https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/operations/ireland/
Acottyyyyy Sound Energy’s TE-10 average porosity was poor at 8%
NuTech MOU-3
shows good porosity 22-34%
and good permeability with 55 – 60% gas saturations
And from Methodology
MOU-1 Well logs:
Porosity = 21%
Permeability = 100md
Gas sat: 50-70%
The yardstick.
Porosity:
Negligible: 0-5%
Poor: 5-10%
Fair: 15%
Good: 20%
Very Good: 25%
Permeability:
Fair: 1-10 md
Good: 10-100 md
Very good: 100-1000 md
https://twitter.com/Method314/status/1696848790643224853
Part of phase 1 is to test the Ma Sands in Mou-1&3.
From ITR Pg58, MOU-3 Ma Sands conclusion:
NuTech MOU-3 shows good porosity 22-34% and good permeability with 55 – 60% gas saturations
• Estimated flow rate based on LAM-1 likely to be in the range 3 – 4 MMScf/d when choked back – allowing for lower reservoir pressure compared to LAM-1 (but MOU-3 has higher connected volume)
(Pg 59 Ma Sands 16.3 km2 )
• Up to 13 other thin sands that could flow gas if this test is successful within this interval
So take the lower rate that’s 3x13=39 MMScf/d just from the Ma Sands.
And then additionally there is the …
🚀Moulouya fan
🚀A Sands
🚀M1 Sand
🚀TGB-2 Sands
🚀TGB-4 Sands
🚀TGB-6 Sands
🚀Jurassic Carbonates
And not forgetting the “new”
🚀Jurassic Oxford Sands.
🦖Hooper: “I need to have something in the foreground to give it some scale!”
Chief Brody: “Foreground my ass!”
GLA
Testing to start in the last week of January?
From page 12 of the 2021 annual report
“Catering and accommodation for the drilling personnel and the logistical support services was based at the Atlas Hotel in Guercif City. The total value of this contract was 989,100 dirhams. An estimated 100,000 dirhams was attributable to upgrades made to the Atlas Hotel accommodation in respect of the kitchen areas and the restroom facilities. These upgrades raised the standard of the accommodation to a level suitable to potentially attract additional business, including potential tourists en route to other areas.”
Hotel Atlas Guercif is on booking.com
7 single rooms are available up to Sun 21 Jan then from Mon 22 Jan and for the rest of the month only 1 single is available and in Feb onwards availability goes back to normal.
Looks like last week of January … 2024!!
GLA
Hôtel Atlas Guercif, Guercif – Updated 2024 Prices (booking.com)
LSE_PRD_2021.pdf (annualreports.com)
If only the Irish government held a similar sensible view …
“ This year, I am looking forward to participating in a number of panel discussions, investor summits and ministerial forums, and will drive the message that gas is good for Africa. Equatorial Guinea has made significant progress to monetise both domestic and regional gas but a lot more needs to be done to maximise resources and drive industrialisation and economic growth. Gas, as a clean and readily available resource, is the best way for Africa to achieve energy security while facilitating a just energy transition.”
As 2023 draws to an end it’s a good opportunity for some reflection.
Share price started the year at 8.75p and finished at 9.5p
A bit frustrating for LTH who currently have little reward having taken on all the pre drill risks.
However current value now includes …
🚀 MOU-2 “success” found a lot of sands (100m) and a perfect seal!
🚀 MOU-3 success
The Moulouya Fan sand was encountered from 1378 to 1437 metres TVD MD with approximately 50.5 metres of sand versus a pre-drill P50 forecast of 19 metres.
Plus within the shallow closure over-pressured gas was unexpectedly encountered in an 11 metre-thick sand with a 3% formation gas show. 122 psi over-pressured.
MOU-3 confirmed the interpretation of the results of the MOU-1 well completed in July 2021 and established a new gas basin covering up to 240 km² in the northwest corner of the Guercif Licence.
🚀 MOU-4 success
· 64 metres of likely gas sands interpreted by NuTech in MOU-4
Including 2m in the “significant” Jurassic 🦖interval, “blue sky” 126km2 structure
🚀 £10 million raised. (No debt). Placing price 11p
🚀 Carl Kindinger - non-executive director buys circa £20k at 9.5p
🚀 Options issued on 12 October 2023 to Alistair Jury and Carl Kindinger are exercisable at 12.5 pence per share. Fifty percent (50%) of the Options will vest upon the release of an RNS in respect of the rigless testing results for the Guercif Licence
🚀 Memorandum of Understanding signed with Afriquia Gaz S.A. Ensuring that we have the solid foundation to penetrate the downstream Moroccan industrial market
🚀 €246 million Guercif-Nador Highway
🚀 Cory Moruga transaction completed. Potential to be demonstrated through the publication of an Independent Technical Report.
🚀 Ireland
The Company is working with a potential strategic partner in the event a successor authorisation for Corrib South is awarded
🚀 “exiting 2023 stronger and even more resilient and secure in the knowledge that the Company has been transformed over the past 12 months.”
52 week low 4.25
52 week high 21.3
Best wishes to all holders and the PRD management team.
Let’s hope for continued success and higher highs in 2024. 🤞🦖
UAE moving in …” It promises broad partnership prospects that include several fields. Today’s signing of 12 memorandums of understanding between the Kingdom of Morocco and the United Arab Emirates within the framework of the working and fraternal visit undertaken by His Majesty King Mohammed VI to the Emirates. Details ⬇️
https://x.com/2MInteractive/status/1731784593936658762?s=20
Fascinating podcast, particular from 38 mins, on the benefits of domestic production. And earlier in on how Russia’s misinformation campaigns have increased dependence on imported energy. Ireland watch this space!
“ We also intend to strengthen the gas infrastructure, with re-condensation stations and pipelines to transport gas, and later to transport green hydrogen. This stage is also the first stage of the very important gas pipeline between Nigeria and Morocco, which in turn will strengthen our regional integration after we were able to connect Morocco to Europe, electrically and gas-wise. And in both directions”
Are/were Genel interested in PRD?
From 12mins, a question on M&A, the director replies (after a chuckle) …continues to be a challenge to find consensus between buyer and vendor on price, as an example an asset we looked at a year ago and took quite a long way through we revisited this year and price appears to have gone up in the vendor expectation.
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-481
Genel 132 million net cash
Interested in diversifying out of Kurdistan
PG’s “Difficult market conditions” could be referring to Turkey-Iraq pipeline …when this opens Genel’s cash flow and PRD may both benefit.
Sounds promising!
Bottom of page 15
“Therefore, in agreement with DECC, we considered that a commercial FSRU project is the most likely option to be delivered commercially in the near term and that has the potential to provide sufficient mitigation against the most severe gas supply disruption risks that may arise in Ireland”
https://assets.gov.ie/276440/b61f648b-2746-47e3-854e-17fe1fcbc51c.pdf
Try this link…
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/xqaeza/prd_the_sleeping_giant/
The Leviathan Bond rating is under review.
The link (below) from today has some interesting metrics and discussion.
Here are some of my musings …
Leviathan Bond derives its cash flows entirely from the Leviathan field, which is located 130 km offshore, in the northern part of the country. Water depth 1700m.
Largest offshore gas field in Israel.
…the rise in geopolitical risk, and in particular the military activity in the northern part of the country, increases the risk of asset damage, operational issues, and government intervention, all of which could have a material impact on the credit quality of Leviathan Bond.
(10 Oct Chevron Mediterranean Ltd. has suspended production from Tamar gas field in the southeastern Mediterranean due to violence stemming from the attack of Israel by Hamas)
In March 2023, ADNOC, P.J.S.C, and BP submitted a non-binding indicative offer to purchase 50% of participation units in NewMed… valuing NewMed’s equity at $3.9 billion. (The consortium is entitled to withdraw the offer at any time.)
Leviathan, 441 BCM (2P) owners Chevron, NewMed & Ratio
45.34% NewMed interest
441 BCM =15574 BCF
45.34% = 7061 BCF = $3.9 billion
Approx. $500,000 per BCF
PRD Jan 2022 RNS 295 BCF net, worth $163 million. (£135 million)
This hopefully is just a fraction of our resources.
Also we are onshore, politically stable and no corporate tax for 10 years.
I am sure the $3.9 billion consortium will be weighing up all options.
https://newmedenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%92-%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%98-%D7%9C%D7%90%D7%92%D7%97-%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%95%D7%99%D7%AA%D7%9F-%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%A1%D7%9D-%D7%A2%D7%99-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A1-%D7%91%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%9A-%D7%9C%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%92-%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9D-23.10.23.pdf?utm_source=InforuMail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEwMed+%2872%29
From Methodology’s amazing work on Reddit, (link below) in the Rharb Basin
Flow Rate = 2.1487 + 0.5292NetPay
Guercif has confirmed analogous geology and gas plays to the Rharb Basin, but with lager traps!
From 11 July RNS
43 metres of likely gas sands interpreted by NuTech in MOU-3 for the Moulouya Fan interval. (note verified by 3rd party)
Gives
Flow Rate = 2.1487+0.5292 x 43 = 24.9 mmcfpd
This does not include the other intervals.
From 2020 CPR
“We have calculated that a pilot 5 mmcfpd (plateau production) CNG project could deliver net cash flow of over $10m per annum by 2024 and an NPV (10) of nearly $32m. On a similar basis, a 10 mmcfpd project could be worth over $71m net to the company with a larger scale 25 mmcfpd plan valued at over $197m. “( £160m)
Current MC is £58m.
All to play for here!