Member Info for FabPhil

UAE moving in …” It promises broad partnership prospects that include several fields. Today’s signing of 12 memorandums of understanding between the Kingdom of Morocco and the United Arab Emirates within the framework of the working and fraternal visit undertaken by His Majesty King Mohammed VI to the Emirates. Details ⬇️

https://x.com/2MInteractive/status/1731784593936658762?s=20

Fascinating podcast, particular from 38 mins, on the benefits of domestic production. And earlier in on how Russia’s misinformation campaigns have increased dependence on imported energy. Ireland watch this space!

“ We also intend to strengthen the gas infrastructure, with re-condensation stations and pipelines to transport gas, and later to transport green hydrogen. This stage is also the first stage of the very important gas pipeline between Nigeria and Morocco, which in turn will strengthen our regional integration after we were able to connect Morocco to Europe, electrically and gas-wise. And in both directions”

Are/were Genel interested in PRD?

From 12mins, a question on M&A, the director replies (after a chuckle) …continues to be a challenge to find consensus between buyer and vendor on price, as an example an asset we looked at a year ago and took quite a long way through we revisited this year and price appears to have gone up in the vendor expectation.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-481

Genel 132 million net cash

Interested in diversifying out of Kurdistan

PG’s “Difficult market conditions” could be referring to Turkey-Iraq pipeline …when this opens Genel’s cash flow and PRD may both benefit.

Sounds promising!

Bottom of page 15

“Therefore, in agreement with DECC, we considered that a commercial FSRU project is the most likely option to be delivered commercially in the near term and that has the potential to provide sufficient mitigation against the most severe gas supply disruption risks that may arise in Ireland”

https://assets.gov.ie/276440/b61f648b-2746-47e3-854e-17fe1fcbc51c.pdf

Try this link…

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/xqaeza/prd_the_sleeping_giant/

The Leviathan Bond rating is under review.

The link (below) from today has some interesting metrics and discussion.

Here are some of my musings …

Leviathan Bond derives its cash flows entirely from the Leviathan field, which is located 130 km offshore, in the northern part of the country. Water depth 1700m.

Largest offshore gas field in Israel.

…the rise in geopolitical risk, and in particular the military activity in the northern part of the country, increases the risk of asset damage, operational issues, and government intervention, all of which could have a material impact on the credit quality of Leviathan Bond.

(10 Oct Chevron Mediterranean Ltd. has suspended production from Tamar gas field in the southeastern Mediterranean due to violence stemming from the attack of Israel by Hamas)

In March 2023, ADNOC, P.J.S.C, and BP submitted a non-binding indicative offer to purchase 50% of participation units in NewMed… valuing NewMed’s equity at $3.9 billion. (The consortium is entitled to withdraw the offer at any time.)

Leviathan, 441 BCM (2P) owners Chevron, NewMed & Ratio

45.34% NewMed interest

441 BCM =15574 BCF

45.34% = 7061 BCF = $3.9 billion

Approx. $500,000 per BCF

PRD Jan 2022 RNS 295 BCF net, worth $163 million. (£135 million)

This hopefully is just a fraction of our resources.

Also we are onshore, politically stable and no corporate tax for 10 years.

I am sure the $3.9 billion consortium will be weighing up all options.

https://newmedenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%92-%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%98-%D7%9C%D7%90%D7%92%D7%97-%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%95%D7%99%D7%AA%D7%9F-%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%A1%D7%9D-%D7%A2%D7%99-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A1-%D7%91%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%9A-%D7%9C%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%93%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%92-%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9D-23.10.23.pdf?utm_source=InforuMail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEwMed+%2872%29

Links

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/Predator-Oil-Gas-Corporate-update-7-March-2022.pdf

From Methodology’s amazing work on Reddit, (link below) in the Rharb Basin

Flow Rate = 2.1487 + 0.5292NetPay

Guercif has confirmed analogous geology and gas plays to the Rharb Basin, but with lager traps!

From 11 July RNS

43 metres of likely gas sands interpreted by NuTech in MOU-3 for the Moulouya Fan interval. (note verified by 3rd party)

Gives

Flow Rate = 2.1487+0.5292 x 43 = 24.9 mmcfpd

This does not include the other intervals.

From 2020 CPR

“We have calculated that a pilot 5 mmcfpd (plateau production) CNG project could deliver net cash flow of over $10m per annum by 2024 and an NPV (10) of nearly $32m. On a similar basis, a 10 mmcfpd project could be worth over $71m net to the company with a larger scale 25 mmcfpd plan valued at over $197m. “( £160m)

Current MC is £58m.

All to play for here!

Energy Ireland conference is today.

Will Holland (EOG) said last night he was meeting with Minister Ryan which can only be good for PRD.

Also one of the speakers is John Melvin who talks a lot of sense, the below was from a year ago …

CRU director of security of supply and wholesale markets John Melvin said that while the State had benefited from a “diverse range of fuels in the past”, such as coal and oil, gas will become “the go-to fossil fuel” into the next decade.

“As we move into the next decade, when we are not making electricity from renewables, the go-to fossil fuel is going to be natural gas for the next period of time,” he said. “The plan is for the overall energy system to become more and more reliant on electricity, in terms of heat and in transport.

As indigenous production declines, our reliance on Britain will increase. Britain is an island like us. It has a well-diversified set of sources. Nevertheless, from a strategic viewpoint, it would make sense not to be reliant on a single source regardless of how reliable it is.

“The Department [of the Environment and Climate] is conducting a review of security and supply of electricity and gas, and our view is that diversifying our sources of gas should be an important part of that review.

“In the context of no further licences being issued for exploration, clearly liquefied natural gas and onshore storage will be an important thing to consider”

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/06/29/state-needs-more-sources-of-fossil-fuels-says-energy-watchdog/

https://www.energysecurityireland.ie/

PRD seem to tick a lot of boxes …

“Looking to the future

Delek Drilling changes its name to NewMed Energy, and announces a strategic restructuring, deepening of the operating areas into alternative energy segments, including production of hydrogen, promotion of carbon capture and storage, and investment in renewable energy, alongside operation and expansion of existing projects, exploration for natural gas in new areas for the Partnership, and integration of ESG and transparency principles in the spirit of the modern Western investment environment.”

https://newmedenergy.com/about-us/#history

Market Cap $20 million, and our product is 3x more effective than competitor’s CareDX.

CareDx cash and cash equivalents were $283 million as of June 30, 2023. With no debt. MC $400 million

It’s just a matter of time…

Fighting our corner …

Steve Boldy, Chief Executive of Lansdowne, commented:

"Whilst we are pleased to receive a response from Ireland to our letters setting out our claim under the ECT, the response has come right at the end of the three month period allowed for the parties to seek an amicable settlement, not allowing any time for dialogue.

It has always been our hope that this matter could be settled amicably and we will continue to seek to achieve that, but with the three month period elapsing today, the door is also open for us to move forward with formal arbitration proceedings .

We continue to believe the Minister's rejection of the Barryroe JV partners' Lease Undertaking application, which prevented the development of the Barryroe oil and gas field, was not in the interest of Irish energy security or a prudent transition to a lower carbon economy.

Minister Ryan himself, in his announcement of 11 September 2023 of new energy cooperation agreements with the United Kingdom ("UK"), noted that: "In future most of our energy needs will be met by renewable electricity, but as we transition natural gas will play a crucial back-up role in Ireland's energy system".

With respect to security of energy supply, we believe it is preferable to develop Ireland's indigenous hydrocarbon resources, rather than to rely on imports ".

On 7 June 2018 PRD applied to convert LO 16/26 into a Frontier Exploration Licence.

It has now been over 5 years and the Irish government have still not made a decision!

The average emissions intensity of imported gas from UK is 36 kgCOze/boe (over 12 times more CO2 than indigenous gas.)

When will common sense prevail?

Wise words…

“Fine Gael mayor of Kerry Jim Finucane called on his party to reconsider being in Government with the Green Party.

Mr Finucane said the decision has angered people in North Kerry where he said “98 per cent of people” support the LNG project as a means of creating economic investment and securing the country’s energy supply.

Mr Finucane said the decision was a “farce” as it comes without publication and knowledge of the Government’s energy security review, that is even more a priority in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Europe’s overreliance on Russian fuel.

“As a party [Fine Gael], we have nothing in common with these types of antics,” he said.

“My party should reconsider staying in Government with people like this [Greens] who are destructive to rural Ireland and holding up significant projects. They don’t accept that people must live in rural Ireland, and have jobs, and have a future,” he said.

Minister Eamon Ryan’s intervention is unacceptable, and he should resign. We have a report [energy security review] that has taken four years when it should have taken six months. This is causing reputational damage to Ireland,” he said.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/shannon-lng-650m-gas-facility-refusal-no-threat-to-jobs-or-energy-security-eamon-ryan-insists/a1564144302.html

obviously heyco will want to secure their 30% ownership of wressel before thinking about securing a controlling stake with eog’s 30%.

so from 14 september things could get interesting… just in time for an increase in production from the jet pump and development of *****tone!

as per 29 aug egdon rns

“subject to the court approving the scheme and the court order being duly delivered to the registrar of companies, it is anticipated that the scheme will become effective on 14 september 2023. if the court sanctions the scheme, it is intended that cancellation of the admission to trading of egdon shares on aim will take effect from 7.00 a.m. on 15 september 2023. accordingly, it is intended that dealings in egdon shares will be suspended with effect from 7.30 a.m. on 14 september 2023.”

Why ditch the Sept 7th PR event? …

Is it just a coincidence that Heyco’s parent company had a talk today as well?

Both Heyco and Petrichor are ultimately owned by Explorers Petroleum Corp, which is controlled by Heyco Chief Executive Officer George Yates.

Technology Talks: Duvernay Formation

September 7, 2023

Please join us virtually for a Duvernay Fm. focused technical talk on Thursday 7 September 2023 at 11am MST. Please register using the following link:

https://www.petroexplorers.com/pages/news.php

This from August last year ties into today’s RNS.

“The owners of Ireland’s only natural gas field are looking at ways of extending its life into the next decade.

Vermillion and Nephin Energy, shareholders in the Corrib gas field off the Mayo coast, believe that it could continue producing the fuel well into the next decade with substantial extra investment.

The field was expected to run out of gas early in the 2030s, leaving the country entirely dependent on imports for its most important energy source.

Improving the Co Mayo terminal’s existing technology could lengthen the field’s life, while there are hopes that there are other reserves nearby that could also be exploited.

Vermillion and Nephin said on Tuesday that they are studying the feasibility of extending Corrib’s life and developing a renewable energy hub at the north Co Mayo site.

“The Corrib infrastructure has the potential to deliver a safe, secure source of energy for decades to come,” the firms said in a statement.

The owners are also exploring how the site can be used to exploit opportunities offered by offshore wind and possibly green hydrogen.

Developed for €3.6 billion, Corrib is the country’s sole homegrown source of gas, providing 30 per cent of what is consumed here. Fuel from the field emits far less carbon dioxide than imports.

Natural gas is used to generate around half of Irish electricity needs. It is also used to heat homes and by industrial and commercial customers.

The owners said they would complete the feasibility studies and consult with stakeholders.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/30/corrib-owners-look-to-extend-gas-fields-life/

And from today’s RNS

“Ireland

On the 28 July 2023 the Company received an acknowledgement from the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications ("DECC") that a request made on behalf of the Company and its potential partner in the event of a future award of a Frontier Exploration Licence in respect of "Corrib South" was receiving attention.

 

Corrib South has mid and high case estimates for gross gas resources of 137.8 and 484.8 BCF respectively (PRD net interest 50%) with a 44% chance of geological success and a 50% chance of development (Tracs International Limited July 2023).”

“Corrib South in Ireland remains an attractive commercial proposition for gas whilst also potentially contributing to the longevity and commerciality of the Corrib infrastructure through the energy transition. This could underpin potential use of the infrastructure beyond the Energy Transition for blended gas and hydrogen storage.”

“Eirgrid has said delivering the second north-south interconnector is ‘critical’ to improving the security of electricity supply across the island of Ireland.”

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/eirgrid-says-long-delayed-electricity-interconnector-link-to-north-is-critical-for-energy-security/a1001835647.html

I would think an indigenous gas power source would also be ‘critical’ not just for security but also for the environment.

Eamon Ryan what have you done with the Security of Supply report?!

Thursday June 15th 2023 – Question time in the Dáil. 

Deputy Darren O'Rourke: 

“My question is to ask the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications if he will provide an update on the Government’s energy security review and, separately the review by Mr. Dermot McCarthy; when he expects both to be published; and if he will make a statement on the matter.” 

Deputy Eamon Ryan: 

“My Department is currently finalising its review of security of energy supply of Ireland’s electricity and natural gas systems....The McCarthy review into security of supply of the electricity system has been a further key input informing the analysis and will be published alongside the completion of the review. The completion of that review is a key priority. Once the review is completed, which I expect to be next month, when it will also be published, I will bring my recommendations to Government. Subject to Government approval, as I said, it will be published at that time”.

“ The presentation will include a strategic update…”

Interesting 🤔

With the validation success of both Tutivia and Clarava leading to two commercial launches, in a space with little/no competition makes for many options going forwards!!