The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
You don't have to be an expert, I've circled the discrepancies in red on the pictures. The 2021 H1 costs shown today don't match the 2021 H1 costs published this time last year. Historical numbers shouldn't change. No explanation is offered. I've never seen this before.
Anyone spot the restatement of 2021 costs? Will go some way to explain the reduction in margin. Restatement should have come with an explanation though. It didn't.
https://twitter.com/F15JCM/status/1575601782494924800
The question mark over deposits is quite a big one IMO. Given orders are outpacing billings, if 10% deposits were recognised as revenue, it would reduce what we have interpreted to be the selling price. Going back to a presentation published in 2019, Brian was talking about an operating margin of 86%, so clearly margin expectations have come down quite a lot. Broker forecasts would be helpful.
https://harvestminerals.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/harvest-corp-presentation-q1-2019.pdf
It's pretty obvious that the disruption to the fertiliser market caused farmers to bring forward their Q3 orders to H1 to guarantee them supply. With Nordstream now in bits, European supply is clearly going to be disrupted for the foreseeable, keeping global prices elevated.
As panda1 points out, H1 results forecast 150kt to be invoiced in FY22 , not to be confused with the 153kt of sales orders booked YTD from the Q3 sales update.
'The Company is maintaining its 2022 year-end sales target of 150,000 tonnes of KP FĂ©rtil'
I think many conflated the two (myself included) given the numbers are the same to two significant figures. Panda's interpretation makes sense as FY22 sales orders are clearly going to be well beyond 150kt as there's still 3 months of selling to be done :)
No guarantee the balance will invoice in H2 but the order book is growing and it provides good forward visibility. There will certainly be a H2 weighting in the full year numbers and with such a rich gross margin, we can expect to see an operational gearing effect upon net profits.
I like FNX a lot but don't hold myself. I've only bought in here quite recently. Management have talked of good contracts and operational gearing. Assuming they deliver on what they have spoken about, when the SP turns upward I expect a rerating might be quite swift. I held CER who aren't a completely dissimilar business and that certainly moved quickly when it got the wind in its sails
I've been short here since 1st August. Doing quite nicely :)
https://twitter.com/F15JCM/status/1554054807052292098
I'm back in below 45p. Buying this at book value or below is a bit of a no brainer IMO. There has been M&A in the sector with Arden getting taken out by INCE so a bid is not out of the question. Nice dividend of ~7.5% while I wait for the AIM market to improve.