Member Info for Ezhik

We'll need something to help stem the daily sp erosion over the next 20 days or so. Big fat unexpected piece of news please.

We'll need something to help stem the daily sp erosion over the next 20 days or so. Big fat unexpected piece of news please.

Seems like olderwiser hit the nail on the head yesterday, even managed to guess the .16p. Maybe some apologies are about due.

Should ( hopefully) have started the journey over the weekend. Lets hope rewards awaits after the very long wait.

HMS there are plenty of things that 'could' go wrong, but there is always a solution and a recovery option-unless there are no hydrocarbons at all or they only flow 4 barrels of oil in a 10 hour period - ahem!--If you are 'in' then you must believe in there being a good chance of success otherwise you should be 'out' !. I'm still 'in' with a stupid amount of £ gambling on them getting a decent volume out of the ground even though I am aware as well as most on here as to what 'could' go wrong as I spend most of my life involved in risk management, cause and effects and the eternal 'what if', questions and I am still 'in'. Either I am completely reckless - as WN may presume or I have a comfortable state of mind and trust in the drillers getting us into the target zone without having to ram the hole with heavy mud again. The only way to find out is to sit and wait it out. First off, BCE have to get the rig released to them, get it set up and tested and make sure they have considered a whole bunch of what-if's and made suitable contingencies for them.

They expect it to be materially in excess of 250bbls/day. Just as a wild guess, I'm going for 450 which will hopefully prove to be a conservative figure. This time next month rodders. --with the caveat that the rig is released by its current customer on time.

Bargain--can't fail to make a profit from here.

We are expecting oil and gas. Both under pressure from the depth, the amount of rock sitting on top of the reservoir and pressures exerted by underground faults pushing upwards etc. Effectively the oil is pressurised by the gas and vice versa. Gas pressure is inversely proportional to volume, the smaller the volume becomes ( squeezed) the bigger the pressure, therefore once the pressure is released, as in someone has drilled a hole in the ground, the gas can escape and flow at increasing rates as it expands and rises in the well. The gas brings the oil with it and the natural fractures and high level of porosity allows for the oil to come out unassisted--hopefully in huge amounts of at least 3000bbls a day !. (don't quote me on that as we have no idea yet what amount will come out). The oil under pressure at depth is less viscous than when at atmospheric pressure and less able to flow but once the gas escapes it allows the oil to expand, become more viscous and flow more easily. Only problem with the gas is to find a way of dealing with it when it arrives at the surface- hence the gas pipelines across the Paradox that Zphr will hopefully be able to utilise commercially. I think :)

Thanks all. I had a look this morning and couldn't see it. Attention deficit in old age.

Exciting times ahead. Now lets see the drillers tame the tiger. Did anyone notice in any of the webinars what the approximate timescale for this?

Well. WN was almost right, current drilling operations are not completed. End of May now for us to wait for the sidetrack completion. Not unusual and not the fault of BCE and in a way better for me, I wont be stranded on holiday with poor phone signals, can go and relax knowing jack ships is going on with BCE. Might see a wee drop in SP though.

Scssscscsss. The stuff I am making up comes from the rns, so perhaps you should direct your comments to the company that is spending your money if the figures are made up. I also said it was for a single 20ft frac and that the figures were only reliant on there actually being 50bbls of oil produced in a day which currently we all know wasn't actually the case. They most likely had a little spurt of oil that moved the dial momentarily to a flow that equated to 50bbls a day--big difference, but I gave them the benefit of the doubt and called it 50 a day--because thats what they implied. There were several comments and handbag fights going on about oil cut so I attempted to put some sense around the figures the company have provided. If they made the figures up then call the FCA or somebody. I also noticed that the rns states that they were under nitrogen lift for 100% of the time, yet they also say it was a natural flow to surface. It can't really be both so give em a call and ask which version is right. Have a look at the oil and gas definition of contingent resources, it is a step up from prospective which is a bonus for shareholders but still means that it is not yet commercially recoverable for some reason or another, it is also based upon estimation using standard oilfield parameters, therefore in other words you could say its another made-up guesstimate figure. 88 is no different to any other miner or oil explorer, I'm not having a dig at them but until the barrels are churned out and sold, its all just guessology--and a long way off from this point in time.

Some back of packet calcs, please feel free to do a rough check yourself or anyone else, I would be happy to be be proven miles out in this guesstimate. Also to Bear in mind this was a single frac interval of 20ft and some of the figures are approximations.

Frac fluid 226867lbs which equates to about 750 bbls fluid ( probably a little less due to density greater than water )

Well flowed for 84hours = 3.5days with 445 bbls fluid per day = 1557.5bbls. Take out the frac fluid (lets assume 90% recovered) = 675bbls. Take the 1557 total, minus 675 frac fluid = 879 natural fluid (oil and water). Take out the 50bbls a day--if they manage to achieve that ( 3.5 x 50 = 175) 879 - 175 = 705bbls water from the reservoir over 3.5 days. = 201 bbls (200) a day. If the oil achieves 50bbls a day, therefore 50/200 = about 25% oil. OK its just approximate as nobody knows what it will produce exactly but it looks like on the face of it 25% oil and possibly a bit more. Yes 75% is a lot of water to deal with and they would probably be looking at a water injection well for it. Plus there is the already achieved 70bbls from the upper section to think about, so for a potential production add the 50 and 70 and multiply by say 10 for 2 x horizontal multistage fracs and its around 1200bbls a day. Whether folk think it good or bad is up to them, personally I wouldn't be getting hugely excited about it and tbh and therefore not a buyer of 88 at the moment. mcap is possibly still a bit high when considering the future costs to get it into production and the back of packet figures I have calculated. I have nothing to gain/lose at the moment but for someone with a long term view, it does indicate that they can produce. Whether it proves to be commercially viable or whether the resources are upgraded from contingent (non-commercial) will only be outed in the fullness of time.

Hepseal. About 10 days start to finish, drill, complete, get it producing. End of April.

Lots of red showing--just wondering if they are bargain buys or actually sells. Someone bought 20m. Would be a nice return for them if that 1p was ever reached over the next 2-3 years!.

R.J. Not sure the company would announce rig arrival on an rns--they may do, but usual M.O is to rns after the rig is up and the hole penetrated. ahem!. Whatever it is, there is surely a profit to be made from this point as the anticipation of success gains momentum. It will all happen when I am on holiday 27th onwards of course without any access t'internet or t'phone signal. Guaranteed.

No problem with buying at the moment. Seems we are still unloved.

Excellent rns succinct. Keep the lid on the SP for a couple months longer if you don't mind. I need a refill from funds from elsewhere to go all-in in TXP.- again.

Simon and Darien need to go back to school and take reading lessons. The long lead items are not for the rig there are no new delays. The EWT was scheduled for Q3--it still is. The results were always going to be towards the end of the year- they still are. They are changing the license and need an impact assessment and they need engineering design--it will take 6 months and will fall in line with the EWT results--end of year which it has always been. The only issue is that morons on here think that on the first day of Q3 there will be some miraculous result from a well test that may not start until end of Sept and could go on for a month or two and then take some time to analyse--hence end of year. In the meantime, they may have a mind to fiddle around in tai 3 or they may drill something else--which you will pay for. This is a long term opportunity and the get rich quick gratification has passed when the price was 0.2.

@richar ; because you are either one or the other. For or against. There's no such thing as neutral.

Load up, load up, bargain prices, Spring sale is now on. 50% discount for early bird customers.