Member Info for extrader

Hat tip to Vet 10 for this...see thread on t'other board

Trafigura10 Feb 2025 22:37

Unfortunately I can't see all of the article. ET - you have mentioned the Glencore debt a few times, any significance here in your view?

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/02/10/trafigura-comes-to-rescue-of-snpc-by-settling-glencore-debt,110373315-art

Balance sheet tidy-up? Quid pro quo ? What's in it for Trafigura? etc etc

Comments/corrections/criticisms (informed) welcome!

GLA and ATB

Hi Catbert,

First off, FWLIW, I agree pretty much everything you say.

On a technical matter : "Glens credit line was related to petro chemical trading so Trafigura would seem to have supplanted them in this area..."

I'm pretty certain GLEN's dealings with SNPC were pretty much exclusively oil-related pre-export finance.

(a) C-B has no petrochemical sector; and

(b) a lot of the hoohah/IMF displeasure was because of SNPC's concurrent use of intermediary (cough!) HK or Dubai-based companies for oil shipments, widely suspected as being fronts for 'friends of family'.

The timing of 'balance-sheet repair' - which feeds into 'image repair' - at both GLEN and C-B is interesting, recall the 'on again/off again' approach by C-B in summer 2024 to cash-settle the Sundance litigation, which was aborted when C-B didn't/couldn't deliver the full amount.

To make the offer to settle, C-B must have thought (a) it was worth prioritising and (b) it would have the cash. If (a) is still true, perhaps (b) it does now have the cash. Let's see what happens with Sundance...

Apart from 'commercial advantage', what's in it for Trafigura to pull GLEN's chestnuts out of the fire?

From the 9th (Gulf metals trading post) :

.."Bob Wilt, Ma’aden chief executive, said last year that Manara was planning to build a trading team, and that Manara’s purpose was to “secure offtake of critical minerals” to meet the needs of Saudi Arabia.

However, according to several traders, Manara could not receive metals produced in 2024 by Vale Base Metals, in which it owns a 10 per cent stake, BECAUSE ITS TRADING TEAM WAS NOT READY YET..."

GLEN's interests aren't congruent with Elphick's because of (a) its offtake position and (b) its marketing -or -royalty position, both of which are likely 'hot button' issues for Ma'aden.

What if Ma'aden is using Trafigura as a cut-out to (a) 'help' C-B and sweeten a deal; (b) help GLEN in its image/'bad debt' issue; and (c) as part of a quid-pro-quo for concession(s) by GLEN on the offtake/marketing side of things?

AT promised newsflow, which we think AIUI includes likely (1) hydropower

firm-up and (2) possible reveal of PSEI and the ( BSL's) optimisation study on the applicability of unique technology relating to the Zanaga 30Mtpa Project ("Optimisation Study") with the potential to provide further capital and operating cost savings beyond the results of the 2024 FS Update.

Announced Sept 2024.

Could this 'horse-trading' -for public consumption, the 'good news' re C-B and GLEN - be another part of the 'promised newsflow'?

I'm just trying to make sense of all these goings-on, which seem connected in some way.

Feel free (you and others!) to shoot down or come up with alternatives.

GLA and ATB

Hi Vet10,

Thanks for this.

The same source recently gave context:

Congo 20 Dec 2024

Impatient Glencore badgers Brazzaville to pay debt

The Congolese state still owes the Swiss trader $349m [out of original $766m in 2019], but its ability to keep up payments is shrinking....

I don't know what Trafigura's current net debt is, but in 2019 it was $ 932m...

From GLEN's PoV, I imagine settlement will simplify any future dealings with C-B...and others (eg potential Strategics) would presumably agree .[Maybe that's why GLEN was 'badgering', which suggests urgency...?? ]

From C-B's PoV, settling a past due debt by taking on fresh debt (aka 'extend and pretend') doesn't really change fundamentals, only appearances. Oil production is on the up, so maybe it (feels it) has more flexibility...

OTOH, from the IMF's PoV, this is NOT a Good Thing : it's previously deemed Congo's public debt "unsustainable" and has been working with the country for over a decade to restructure its debt [ to these two co's and - mainly - *China].

The new pre-financing arrangement with Trafigura - unless smaller/on more favourable terms - is a step back and adds another layer of complexity to Congo's debt situation.

*Said to be around $ 2.4 Bn (in 2021, same at last FOCAC) per https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3138295/china-bails-out-republic-congo-second-debt-restructure

What's in it for Trafigura, though? It seems to have been supplanting GLEN elsewhere recently, see

https://www.mining.com/web/trafigura-clinches-share-of-major-zinc-deal-snubbed-by-glencore/

From ZIOC's PoV, settlement should - other things being equal - increase GLEN's capacity (and maybe willingness) to entertain fresh C-B exposure of a different type/risk profile .......so, if anything, a positive.

Mostly good news, AFAICS.

Thanks again.

ATB

And Ashmore latest

.."Argentina: Economy Minister Luis Caputo said an eventual agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not require a devaluation or an immediate exit from foreign exchange (FX) controls. He forecasts the economy to grow more than 5% in 2025.

President Javier Milei said Argentina's FX controls will be terminated by January 2026, even if the country gets no help from the IMF. This reflects significant confidence in the stabilisation and reform drive supported by a zero-deficit fiscal policy approach, and tight monetary policy. Milei’s office also said he had taken the decision to ban gender change treatments and surgeries for minors..."

GLA

.." Thats just not how global mining firms risk management processes work"

You've provide no evidence of your experience - personal or anecdotal - to support this claim.

Please provide either.

TIA

PS If you're unsuccessful - and Driving is - you could always ask him to let you 'piggyback' on his entitlement. Make allowances, please, for my 10% introduction commission.

ATB

.."A little like reading your posts, sign up isn’t instant, it’s a process..."

That sounds vaguely aggressive, albeit misdirected.

.."Albeit I would not consider a position in ZIoc at these lofty prices, I will contact Shard Capital and register my interest to partake in any fundraise if around the 2-3p level."

Be sure to let us know the reply.

'alwayshoping' has meanwhile kindly confirmed that he- as a 'mystery shopper' - wasn't approved.

Good luck!

'Steady the Buffs!'

GLA

Has SCM approved your application to be considered for any future subscription?

You always seem to move on to the next criticism before addressing a rebuttal.

Now's your chance.

PS While it may not be relevant to the OUTBOUND - eventual iron ore export - as someone pointed out, this certainly offers comfort re the logistics capability to handle the earlier INBOUND requirements of Zanaga Project.

Every little helps.

.." Leading companies in Oman, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are planning to launch metal trading companies, as the region taps into growing demand for metals while it looks to diversify beyond oil and gas.....

..... The trading plans come as many oil-dependent Gulf states seek to position themselves in the global supply chain for the METALS NEEDED for the energy transition, such as copper, lithium and IRON ORE.

[Good to see this acknowledged at last]....

In another sign of the Gulf’s pivot towards metals and minerals, Abu Dhabi upped its bet on mining last week. Sovereign investor ADQ announced a $1.2bn joint venture with specialist metals investor Orion Resources, which will focus on copper, IRON ORE and other materials. Both sides will initially invest $600mn. ........

Philip Clegg, managing partner of the joint venture, said on top of buying stakes in miners, the investments were being made to secure the long-term supply of critical minerals....

Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding, a mining company that is part of a conglomerate chaired by powerful Emirati royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, has already built out a 60-person trading unit to handle energy and metals.....

Bob Wilt, Ma’aden chief executive, said last year that Manara was planning to build a trading team, and that Manara’s purpose was to “secure offtake of critical minerals” to meet the needs of Saudi Arabia.

However, according to several traders, Manara could not receive metals produced in 2024 by Vale Base Metals, in which it owns a 10 per cent stake, BECAUSE ITS TRADING TEAM WAS NOT READY YET.

Oops!

GLA

FT

.." Leading companies in Oman, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are planning to launch metal trading companies, as the region taps into growing demand for metals while it looks to diversify beyond oil and gas.....

..... The trading plans come as many oil-dependent Gulf states seek to position themselves in the global supply chain for the METALS NEEDED for the energy transition, such as copper, lithium and IRON ORE.

[Good to see this acknowledged at last]....

In another sign of the Gulf’s pivot towards metals and minerals, Abu Dhabi upped its bet on mining last week. Sovereign investor ADQ announced a $1.2bn joint venture with specialist metals investor Orion Resources, which will focus on copper, IRON ORE and other materials. Both sides will initially invest $600mn. ........

Philip Clegg, managing partner of the joint venture, said on top of buying stakes in miners, the investments were being made to secure the long-term supply of critical minerals....

Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding, a mining company that is part of a conglomerate chaired by powerful Emirati royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, has already built out a 60-person trading unit to handle energy and metals.....

Bob Wilt, Ma’aden chief executive, said last year that Manara was planning to build a trading team, and that Manara’s purpose was to “secure offtake of critical minerals” to meet the needs of Saudi Arabia.

However, according to several traders, Manara could not receive metals produced in 2024 by Vale Base Metals, in which it owns a 10 per cent stake, BECAUSE ITS TRADING TEAM WAS NOT READY YET.

Oops!

GLA

Interesting timing...and brutal (Big Den-approved?) slapdown of Obambi and Sapro Mayoko

.."EDITORIAL

Friday 7th Feb

Low participation

The Congolese subsoil is rich in mineral substances that remain little explored. Despite

there are indications of deposits of gold, diamonds, base metals, iron, bituminous sandstone and other industrial deposits identified by preliminary studies and research carried out over many years. The sector is still finding its way.

Mining contributes too little to the national economy, despite the fact that, according to

international institutions, the sector has seen episodes of quasi-industrial activity in the 1970s and 1980s.

The major expansion of oil production in recent decades , which has attracted so much attention probably helped to relegate the mines to the background, hence their low contribution to the economy.

Giving ourselves every chance of exploiting the country's significant mining potential requires the legal framework, but also and above all the training of agents, technicians

and managers in the mining industry. This is because mining is a highly complex field, and that it is not just any national economic operator can get involved without risk.

The case of Sapro Mayoko is just one example.

To promote the rational management of these resources, between 2011 and

2015, time was spent to map the country's geology. Unfortunately, this project, which set out to define the available resources and identify investment opportunities has not yet led to the emergence of this growth and capital inflows.

At a time when diversifying the economic base is the essential option for building a strong and resilient economy, it is high time that greater attention to be paid to this issue."

GLA

.."What development milestones are we waiting?

Formalisation of hydropower arrangements?

Formalisation/naming of PSEI?.."

I didn't think to include AD Ports' latest news, since we have the Arise IIP MoU re new PN SEZ. As others have pointed out, though, THIS news gives comfort that the logistics for Zanaga Project's INBOUND needs are likely to be in place in good time.

So, some news re hydropower at one (or both)of the 2 locations identified (can't remember names atm); and

Naming of PSEI. One thought that occurs : if they have to disclose other working arrangements, esp 'their' revolutionary, cost-saving cold-process technology, that would bring BSL to public attention, which might be great for BSL commercially ('proof of concept' on the world stage), but unwelcome for some of its 'opaque'shareholders, esp Concord Atlantic.

Pls suggest any other 'conditions precedent' type of 'newsflow' items !

TIA and ATB

Guys,

This is turning into an unseemly pile-on.

(1) BOTS has in fact named one example of an African project needing finance :

.."One project I keep a passing eye on in Botswana talks about Namibia ports and rail linkages to central africa - in link below. These guys could do with someone like extrader or MM to get the word out there. Especially as they only have maybe 60m shares in issue. Their project cost to link to these rail upgrades would appear to be a fraction of say Simandou or Fortesque or probably even Zanaga.

https://tsodiloresources.com/s/News-Entry.asp.html#1351.."

From a quick look, this is a CAD8m MCap promoter of mineral investments in Southern Africa : copper, cobalt, diamonds and iron ore. It has 2 institutional shareholders with a few % each, Azur LLC and Lucara Diamonds, with the major investors (30%?) being a family. Lucara appears to be a significant diamond resource in Botswana (wild-ass guess : it got its shareholding in Tsodilo as PIK for some info exchange re the diamond business).

Tsodilo's project in Namibia has a significant iron ore resource, with an estimated 1.2 billion tonnes of iron ore, graded at 62% Fe.

The project is currently in the development stage, with ongoing feasibility studies and planning for mining operations.

It's a 'stranded asset', AFAICS, 'needing' a short spur to a yet-to-be-built 'nation-building' 770Km railroad across country Botswana to Walvis Bay Namibia.

ADB and AFC are supposedly interested in financing the railroad in consortium. The est cost - just for the railroad - is $ 2.2 Bn (cf ZIOC total cost for Phase 1 is $2.1Bn).

If Tsodilo got together with enough other similarly stranded significant assets and co-ordinated a supporting equity package, maybe it would be a 'goer'.

(2) BOTS has expressed his opinion on what ZIOC is worth, without adducing much (so far) to support his view.

Talk is cheap, he could have some token 'skin in the game' by joining in the shareprice sweepstake (naming his price and the %age he'll donate to his named charity if closest to the end-price) and agree to abide - as we all do - with the gentlemen's agreement that we'll all pay our agreed %age to the nominated charity that is CLOSEST to the ACTUAL end-price.

(3) I'm genuinely interested in finding the NEXT ZIOC, as I'll need something else to focus on once this is done and dusted....so by all means make other suggestions.

GLA and ATB

Https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2025/02/06/ad-ports-group-partners-with-the-cma-cgm-group-to-develop-and-operate-new-terminal

This is more the consequence of a wider strategic alliance with CMA-CGM than something Congo- focussed, but still a help to the 'mood music' and a sign of the increasing 'investability ' of C-B, AFAICS.

.."Abu Dhabi, UAE – 6 February 2025: AD Ports Group (ADPORTS:ADX), an enabler of integrated trade, transport and logistics, today signed a shareholders’ agreement with the CMA CGM Group, a global player in sea, land, air, and logistics solutions, through its subsidiary CMA Terminals, to jointly develop, manage and operate the New East Mole multipurpose terminal in Pointe Noire, Congo-Brazzaville, for which AD Ports Group received a 30-year extendable concession in June 2023.

With the signing, AD Ports Group and the CMA CGM Group formed a joint venture, majority-owned by AD Ports Group, to develop, manage, and operate New East Mole multipurpose terminal at the Port of Pointe Noire, which will handle containers, general, break-bulk and other types of cargo at the Central West African nation’s biggest Atlantic port..."

ATB

Https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2025/02/06/ad-ports-group-partners-with-the-cma-cgm-group-to-develop-and-operate-new-terminal

This is more the consequence of a wider strategic alliance with CMA-CGM than something Congo- focussed, but still a help to the 'mood music' and a sign of the increasing 'investability ' of C-B, AFAICS.

.."Abu Dhabi, UAE – 6 February 2025: AD Ports Group (ADPORTS:ADX), an enabler of integrated trade, transport and logistics, today signed a shareholders’ agreement with the CMA CGM Group, a global player in sea, land, air, and logistics solutions, through its subsidiary CMA Terminals, to jointly develop, manage and operate the New East Mole multipurpose terminal in Pointe Noire, Congo-Brazzaville, for which AD Ports Group received a 30-year extendable concession in June 2023.

With the signing, AD Ports Group and the CMA CGM Group formed a joint venture, majority-owned by AD Ports Group, to develop, manage, and operate New East Mole multipurpose terminal at the Port of Pointe Noire, which will handle containers, general, break-bulk and other types of cargo at the Central West African nation’s biggest Atlantic port..."

ATB

.."Whatever we are running on fumes at present & I am amazed how long they have managed to survive without issuing the next tranche..."

At some point in a deal, some parties are willing to take deferred payment...or an element in kind. This was my impression of some of the consultant and broker payments at time of IPO.

AIUI

PS thanks for the tech update ...I'm a dinosaur.

;->

Or, it's a bespoke facility , dreamed up by Elphick himself....a kind of 'rolling' placement facility reserved for friends (ex Garbut/Howarth and Co) to provide funds on an 'as and when needed' basis, with minimal formality and dilution.

Recall that pre breakup - bringing it below discloseable levels - Howarth's vehicle was the larger of the two founder shareholders...and there was a shareholder agreement in place that likely included tag-along rights.

Hence my interest in finding out whether the Shard facility is in fact open to Joe Public.

I suspect not...and there's someone (alwayshoping?) who tried and didn't make the cut, which is anecdotal support.

GLA