Member Info for extrader

Local reaction (p 1).... and clarification (p 6) that ownership remains with C-B and that 'sovereignty ' isn't affected by having someone else come in and manage your infrastructure for you*

.."ENERGIE ÉLECTRIQUE DU CONGO

N°4954 - THURSDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2025

Trade unions threaten to walk out

In a letter to the Director General of Energie électrique du Congo (E2C), the inter-union college announced that a general meeting would be held on 21 February, without specifying the agenda.

In view of the situation prevailing at the company following the signing of an agreement to pass the management of the marketing and distribution of energy to a Senegalese company, and messages about the upcoming massive, indefinite power cuts that are

circulating on the web, there are many signs that the climate within the company is deteriorating....."

*UK residents take note.

AIUI

Yes.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SRT/response-to-reports-in-philippine-press-rqyat2m71v30tp3.html

Hat tip to alter ego for this (plausible) bit of background :

.."I'm not sure if this is in any way connected to this case, but I believe the wife of the ombudsman is associated with one of the large fishing companies in the Philippines. That may be a coincidence but there might just be something not quite right.

Here is a picture of his wife Cecilia Matires saved here

hTTps://ibb.co/FLs8xcWk

and this is a picture of someone attending a USAID event

hTTps://ibb.co/SHFy85L

hTTps://sustainablefish.org/press-release/major-philippine-companies-commit-to-local-and-responsible-seafood-sourcing/

I think it's the same woman..."

The large-scale commercial fishers don't like the location/identification attributes of SRT's system, because it would identify them if/when they breach areas meant to be reserved for 'artesanal' ie small-boat fisherfolk.

AIUI

..and, re RIO Tinto's 'noting' of Mitsui's interest (subsequently warmed up to 'welcome'), there's also this snippet, re the existing relationship :

.."Mitsui & Co. and Rio Tinto are long-standing partners at the Robe River Joint Venture. Rio Tinto welcomes Mitsui & Co. to Rhodes Ridge and looks forward to progressing the project.

A PRE-feasibility study to progress the development of Rhodes Ridge is expected to be completed THIS YEAR, with a feasibility study to follow.

Rio Tinto is the majority owner (53%), with partners Mitsui Iron Ore Development (33%) AND NIPPON STEEL...."

Mitsui may be sated for now, but Nippon Steel won't be getting much product out of Champion/Kami . It may still be on the lookout for more...and, perhaps now a little more motivated.

ATB

Hi Jiving,

The Mitsui presentation is interesting : in his comments, President/CEO alludes to the 20-year pursuit of this target from the Wrights.

It's always nice to see patience rewarded.

Jes' sayin'.

ATB

From today's depeches :

.."The government entrusts distribution and sales to Senelec.

The distribution and marketing of electricity in the Republic of Congo has been entrusted

to the Société nationale d'électricité du Sénégal (Senelec), for a period of ten years.

A leasing agreement to this effect was signed last week between the two countries...."

Seems C-B wants to get outsiders to do the 'dirty work' (and take the political 'heat'?) that it hasn't been able to do itself:

..."the tasks assigned to Senelec include management, upkeep, maintenance and improving the performance of the public electricity distribution and billing systems.

It also involves recovering debts and monitoring subscribers as part of the marketing of electricity..."

However, ...'staff transferred to Senelec retain their rights and benefits, as well as seniority."

Not sure that this would pass the 'Elon test'.

But the public admission of failure is unusual in itself.

ATB

Re its latest results

West Australian newspaper headline, unfortunately behind paywall :

...."Lower grade iron ore stings BHP, while CEO Mike Henry is bullish on Chinese cash splash..."

but more here

https://www.mining-journal.com/miners/news-analysis/4409884/bhp-slashes-dividend-iron-ore-earnings-dip

.."BHP produced 131 million tonnes of iron ore over the six months to the end of December, largely in line with the same period the year before.

However, it recorded average realised iron ore prices from its Western Australian business of $81.11 per wet metric down, down 22% from the first half of FY24..."

followed by

..""Our estimate of COST SUPPORT continues to sit in the US$80-100/t range on a 62% Fe CFR basis, formed by approximately 180Mt OF HIGHER COST SUPPLY, mainly from Australian junior miners, Indian fines and some Chinese domestic mines," BHP said.

It said in the long run, seaborne iron ore trade was likely to diversify amid demand growth from developing regions, perhaps lessening the influence of China's economy on the broader sector..."

From elsewhere, I read that levels of 'contaminants' like silica and alumina may also be a 'Pilbara' issue.

Grateful for any informed /authoritative insights.

GLA

Does BHP also have a 'PIlbara rust' problem ?

West Australian newspaper headline, unfortunately behind paywall :

...."Lower grade iron ore stings BHP, while CEO Mike Henry is bullish on Chinese cash splash..."

but more here

https://www.mining-journal.com/miners/news-analysis/4409884/bhp-slashes-dividend-iron-ore-earnings-dip

.."BHP produced 131 million tonnes of iron ore over the six months to the end of December, largely in line with the same period the year before.

However, it recorded average realised iron ore prices from its Western Australian business of $81.11 per wet metric down, down 22% from the first half of FY24..."

followed by

..""Our estimate of COST SUPPORT continues to sit in the US$80-100/t range on a 62% Fe CFR basis, formed by approximately 180Mt OF HIGHER COST SUPPLY, mainly from Australian junior miners, Indian fines and some Chinese domestic mines," BHP said.

It said in the long run, seaborne iron ore trade was likely to diversify amid demand growth from developing regions, perhaps lessening the influence of China's economy on the broader sector..."

From elsewhere, I read that levels of 'contaminants' like silica and alumina may also be a 'Pilbara' issue.

Grateful for any informed /authoritative insights.

GLA

This seems to be conf of the AFC deal that Milbank was working on....unless it's another (14 Feb 2025)

https://www.africafc.org/news-and-insights/news/africa-finance-corporation-and-the-export-import-bank-of-china-cexim-strengthen-partnership-to-drive-trade-and-infrastructure-growth-across-africa

Relationship seems to be good :

..". AFC also finalised a US$1.16 billion syndicated loan last year, co-led by the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) London Branch..."

GLA

.." do you think Rio would be controlling the announcements &/or do you think Rio comms folks would be allowing Zanaga comms folks to be pitching to its shareholders about an upcoming Investor Day update..."

Until there's public disclosure about any 'controlling' influence over ZIOC - whether by Rio or a.n.other - I'd expect ZIOC to control its own comms - esp if of a 'material' nature...wouldn't you?

The ZIOC BoD would be in serious breach of its fiduciary/legal obligations to its shareholders were it to behave otherwise, as should be obvious from a moment's reflection.

From the link I provided : .."WDYB is not a bruising or aggressive game, rather a boring one, inducing self-helplessness in the actor and BOREDOM in the secondary players trying to help. One of whom at some point is happy to move the topic on, to the typical dismay of the main actor."

I await your next 'Yes, but...' with bated breath.

Tweets

.."the upcoming signing of the agreement on the RECIPROCAL PROTECTION OF INVESTMENTS, which will mark a key step in our economic cooperation.

Furthermore, we shared our satisfaction with the progress of the (oil) PIPELINE PROJECT, which represents a major opportunity for the economic and social development of our country. "

Maybe the parrot's just resting.

GLA

I believe the board would benefit from reading this

https://odysseyserendipity.com/blog/full-list-of-games-people-play/

You seem to be manifesting a mild case of 'WDY-YB'.

IMO ..and HTH (others)

Hi Jiving,

(1) Thanks for the Champion/Kami insights.

Champion (GLEN director on board) are shareholders in BSL.

It looks as though there may have been at least some feasibility studies done re BSL's 'cold-binding technology', per

https://www.ausimm.com/publications/conference-proceedings/iron-ore-2021/development-of-a-cold-bonding-technology-to-high-grade-iron-ore-concentrate/

.."Development of a cold bonding technology to high-grade iron ore concentrate

Decarbonisation has become a major challenge for the global steelmaking industry, turning towards new technologies aimed at carbon footprint reduction, which on its own accounts for approximately 9 per cent global emissions. The iron and steel industry represents a ‘hard to abate’ sector, where much of efforts are currently being deployed into initiatives aiming to decarbonise the ironmaking through the use of green hydrogen, carbon capture utilisation and storage and state-of-the-art operation of current technologies, while little efforts being deployed to find carbon-efficient solution to iron ore burden preparation, where high-grade iron concentrate will increase in importance to ironmaking regardless of the chosen reduction route.

Quebec Iron Ore (QIO), a subsidiary of Champion Iron Limited (Champion), produces high-grade hematite concentrate with one of the lowest carbon global footprints.

In a strong technological partnership, Binding Solutions Limited (BSL) has developed a novel, coldbinding technology to provide a cleaner, more cost-effective alternative to induration. The technology allows miners and steel producers to reduce Capex significantly and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 90 per cent.

QIO and BSL have partnered to adapt the disruptive cold binding technology developed by BSL to QIO’s concentrate to produce a high-quality low emissions iron ore agglomerate.

This paper describes the efforts taken to further develop BSL’s cold binding technology and its application to QIO’s high-grade iron ore concentrate ....[seeking] comparable performances with high quality seaborne fired pellets."

Nothing further reported by QIO, but then there's this - more encouraging and more recent (2024)

(2) From BSL minority shareholder (3%) Cotec, whose Chair Treger nevertheless exercises 'significant interest or control' at BSL :

https://www.cotec.ca/_resources/news/nr_20240627.pdf

.." Low carbon Pelletization: Concentrate from the Corem testing programme was provided to

Binding Solutions Limited for testing using their low carbon cold pelletising technology. Initial results have proved positive with some metrics such as cold compressive strength being above required industry standards.... additional test work will be carried out

to further enhance the pellet metrics and reduce binder costs...."

Tailings project also seeks to use hydropower, to increase 'green quotient'.

So maybe 'not proven'..but getting there?

ATB

Meanwhile, this OLD article suggests

(a) Fortescue has been aware of the Pilbara rust thesis for a long time; and

(b) it had been looking at a tie-up with Vale to resolve it (blending).

https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/vale-fortescue-plan-tie-up-to-boost-iron-ore-market-share-in-china

Maybe Vale's just-announced step-up at Carajas is to provide FMG (and/or others) with the admixture.

Which would suggest that it's perhaps no longer in contention for ZIOC - if it ever was.

RTZ Chair front and centre at Future Minerals Forum last month....

GLA

PS Given mention of transport economics, maybe worth researching who has ore-blending facilities in China, I thought FMG, but copilot is hallucinating again...;-

Here you go, MM

Gives some insight re BaoWu's position ...and Guinea political risk....

rest of

https://www.mining-journal.com/london-to-a-brick/opinion-articles/4409825/rios-investment-simandou-deliver-spades

.."Blending options also spurred an outline deal signed last year between Australia's Arrow Minerals [Ed.: Arrow has a concession adjacent to Simndou...] and Baowu Steel. The MoU provided for more product to be blended from Simandou with ore from Baowu's other African iron ore interests. It might also involve blending options at Baowu's and Arrow's Australian joint iron ore venture at Onslow, Western Australia.

David Flanagan, Arrow's managing director, told S&P Global Insights: "The more high-grade material Baowu gets out of Simandou, the more options they've got; and when they buy our product, it will just add to theirs, and it will grow their tonnage."

The high quality of Simandou's iron ore is a significant advantage for producing low-carbon steel, a key objective for China and others. This is not only due to environmental considerations but also financial ones - greener steel commands higher prices.

Nevertheless, the economics of blending Simandou and Pilbara ore will have to carefully weighed as shipping costs from Guinea to Australia or China need to be factored into the equation.

Resource nationalism

In the interim, the rise of resource nationalism has worried some about Guinea's political trajectory. The military junta led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya said last year it will hold delayed presidential and legislative elections in 2025 after failing to hold a promised poll in December.

For now, Guinea is suffering from worsening economic strains, according to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. There are fears that spillovers from conflicts elsewhere in the world could trigger a new wave of trade disruptions and inflation.

But for Simandou, downside risks are probably overplayed. The World Bank said Guinea's growth is expected to be sustained at an average of 6.2% in 2025-2026 driven mainly by (mineral resources) investment. Mining accounted for 21% of Guinea's GDP last year, and over 90% of its exports, said the IMF.

The assumption is that the junta will do all it can to prevent any erosion of international investor confidence. "

HTH and ATB

Worth a read...

Legal special situations & merger arb research for investment professionals

2.6K+ subscribers

hxxps://www.valoremresearch.com/p/gettin-paid-or-gettin-milei-d

On substack.

After reciting the various stalling tactics, writer thinks :

(a) ..'it's more likely than not that the alter ego analysis will cut in favour of the plaintiffs, putting the YPF shares in contention for a transfer; and that

(b) ..the DoJ angle (Markazi aspect) may be 'helpful optics' re background conversations with Milei; perhaps a concern over a reaction from other sovereigns;

in either case, 'not insurmountable'...and Plaintiffs have the better argument...'

Concludes that writer has added to his ('material but not huge') BUR position in anticipation of these rulings and subsequent enforcement efforts providing positive catalysts.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

ATB

WoodMac concedes Delayed Energy Transition Scenario (DETS)

..."Why upstream companies might break their capital discipline rules

Pressure will intensify to invest more in a slow transition

The possibility of oil and gas demand growing strongly into the next decade is one Wood Mackenzie has explored in our Delayed Energy Transition Scenario (DETS). Others across the industry have outlined a similar case for oil demand resilience, most recently Vitol the global energy trader.

Stronger-for-longer oil and gas demand would have huge implications for the upstream industry responsible for delivering the supply.

First,

We have no doubt that the resources are there for the industry to tap, much of it in the basins and themes that currently dominate supply. The Middle East and North America will account for two-thirds of the additional supply. Half of the production will be from conventional plays, the rest spread across tight oil, deepwater, LNG and other resource themes...."

Squezing more juice out of existing fruit is a good place to start...

GLA

(1) Yesterday's editorial from depeches.

.." EDITORIAL

A heavy hand

This is it! The dreaded outcome of the long-running battle between the Ministry of Sport and the Congolese Football Federation came to a pathetic end last week. The national game has been suspended, with far-reaching consequences for the country.

Until further notice, the Republic of Congo, a land of football, is 'offside'. Neither the Diables Rouges, the national team, nor the local clubs from which tomorrow's champions are to come will be able to pull on their shirts and kick a ball around Africa and elsewhere.

The many warnings of the worst to come if the rival Congolese parties did not return to their senses were simply ignored. All this damages the great game, one of the rare sectors of national life that has the capacity to unify us and to de-stress us.

The heavy hand of the Fédération Internationale de Football has given its verdict, with which the Confederation of African Football agrees. Will it teach the parties involved a lesson ...and prompt some soul-searching?

The question deserves to be asked insofar as sport is a vector of social cohesion for an entire people, that creates bonds, envy, emotions and opportunities for young people.

It's clear that what's happening to Congolese football today first and foremost affects young people, who are the biggest losers.

Les Dépêches de Brazza "

(2) Africa Intelligence reports that SNPC went around Europe 3 x in early 2024, hoping to raise USD 2 BILLION in oil pre-export finance...a goal it evidently failed to reach.

Let's see if Congolese politicians are any better than others at actually showing that 'the necessary lessons have been learned."

GLA

Hi Catbert,

The Trafigura/GLEN bail-out should help sentiment over this SNPC bond, just publicised today, although (per comment) launched a few weeks back :

.." Tuesday 11 February 2025

BOND ISSUE

SNPC plans to raise CFAF 100 billion [ = US$ 150m approx]

The ‘SNPC 6.5% net 2024-2029’ bond issue, launched on 23 December, is due to close on

27 February. With LCB Capital as lead arranger, the bond issue by public offering of the

Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) has an interest rate of 6.5% and a maturity of 5 years.

The bond issue is the first in a programme of securities initiated by the SNPC, a major player in the management, operation and development of the Republic of Congo's oil and gas resources.

SNPC intends to strengthen its drilling activities and significantly increase its national oil production.

It has received the green light of its Board of Directors to raise a total of FCFA 300 billion on the financial market of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. .."

Other Africa Intelligence snippets suggest that SNPC made 3 x trips to Europe in spring 2024, hoping to raise USD 2 Bn in pre-export oil finance loans.

I guess there weren't any/enough takers.

Maybe they should take the hint.

ATB

Thanks for this.

(1) ChatGPT's reply may have been influenced by comments on t'other thread (as I commented in a post a few days back) ;->!

Does it have any views on the plausibility of the other point raised there , viz that Trafigura's take-out of GLEN's exposure - beyond GLEN and C-B image restoration/improvement - may have been at the behest of a Strategic, as part of the 'horse-trading' (or should that be ' camel-trading' ?) around GLEN's contentious offtake and marketing/royalty rights...that would benefit from some greasing of the wheels ?

I'm thinking specifically of (1) %age allocations of offtake; and/or (2) %age royalty payable under certain circs, both doubtless a 'hot topic' for Ma'aden (and maybe others).

GLEN's view of the sanctity of a 'sticker price' won't be congruent with Elphick's, since it has more irons in the fire.

(2) The news of a deal will doubtless help the marketing of a new SNPC CFA 100Bn (=USD 150 million) 5 year bond for 'general corporate purposes' announced in depeches today, the first tranche of a CEMAC region offering total CFA 300 Bn (=USD 450 million).

.." Tuesday 11 February 2025

BOND ISSUE

SNPC plans to raise CFAF 100 billion

The ‘SNPC 6.5% net 2024-2029’ bond issue, launched on 23 December, is due to close on

27 February. With LCB Capital as lead arranger, the bond issue by public offering of the

Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) has an interest rate of 6.5% and a maturity of 5 years.

The bond issue is the first in a programme of securities initiated by the SNPC, a major player in the management, operation and development of the Republic of Congo's oil and gas resources.

SNPC intends to strengthen its drilling activities and significantly increase its national oil production.

It has received the green light of its Board of Directors to raise a total of FCFA 300 billion on the financial market of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. .."

GLA and ATB