RE: The Big Worry On The Other Board...10 Mar 2025 01:28
Something that hasn't received much airtime, AFAICS - though this may change tomorrow - are the likely new dynamics in shareholder relations :
The RNS was -perhaps deliberately - a bit 'economical with the actualite' - over who's in charge, going forward, being told only that the effect of the buy-in would be that Greymont would have a maximum (post exercise of 'optional'tranche 2) of 28.8%....
Yes, but that ignores the contributions of the others, between Subscriptions and Tranches : we can't be sure who has what, other than Gupta (9.7%), but if you go back to the numbers, the syndicate's overall 416.9m out of 803.5m will EVENTUALLY give them roughly 52%, if/when Greymont's Tranche 2 ('BSL') option is exercised, as I'm sure it will be.
The 'consortium' are below this - at 46.6% AFAICS after Tranche 1 for $ 17.4m = 337.8m/total 724.4m shares on 7th March- rising when Tranche 2 / Gupta's Subscription (+79m odd, for $ 4.08m =416.9m/803.5m or 51.9% ) is subscribed on 27th March.
If or when Greymount exercises the 'BSL' $1.5m option, and IT reaches 28.8%, the consortium as a whole will have an extra 29m shares, for 446m/832.5m or 53.6% of ZIOC.
E & OE !
Shard indirectly confirmed the 'net Phase/Tranche 1 position) when its calculation of the potential s/p was based on a £ 4.8Bn Ph 1 NAV and 803m shares in issue = 600p @ 90% discount = 60p....
So the consortium is already over 50%, the next interesting %ages being 75% (power to sell without need to consult shareholders) and 90% (compulsory buy-in of shares).
Until now, GLEN's 43% + Elphick's 12% + (believed exGuava + ex Garbut say 20%) was at or near 75%; now we have 'consortium's 52% + Elphick 9.6% + (exGs 16.4 % (20% x 677/832) = 77.6%.
Conclusion : The consortium still needs Elphick's holding + goodwill (hence the 'lock-in') but less than hitherto. 90% remains a stretch...for now.
A lot depends on how the newcomers choose to play things and how much their market rep for fair dealing means to them.
Observation : Elphick is a nonExec Chair, a corporate financier and (for GLEN, who needed someone to mind the store), a 'safe pair of hands'. What does he bring to the party, going forward?
The consortium has better C-B connections, current industry and M&A connections and far more technical and project development expertise; Marty Knauth has done all the Strategic Partner/Investor marketing.
Conclusion : Elphick may remain as a figure-head, but others will be running the show. Expect further Board changes (Velloza?Valerius?).
Andrew Trahar's position is an interesting one : his position at Vision Blue (Co-Founder, with Dad as Adviser) and Tony T's position at BSL, might account for some of his silence in recent months. I'd hope for continuity and a more communicative style.
The next couple of weeks should give us a steer.
I look forward to Vet 10 and others' comments on the mood and content of the Investor Event.
GLA and ATB