Member Info for extrader

Fits Zanaga Iron ZIOC to a T.

Let's talk about it in 2 weeks

NAI, DYOR, etc, etc

..So MPD's presence -by itself - is nothing unusual.

Harva, THIS year, the timing relative to AT's 'newsflow' RNS and the agenda item MM* has highlighted seems particularly convenient.

*Wednesday 05 February 16:40 - 17:30 CTICC1

Iron ore: Green infrastructure catapults Africa into a new era

Session is sponsored by Ivanhoe Atlantic

Part of the Redefining Critical Minerals programme (hosted as part of the Disruptive Discussions agenda on Wednesday)

Could Africa become the green infrastructure capital of the world?

What is iron ore's role In achieving this?

A key driver in delivering true economic wealth and building great and financially strong African nations

https://miningindaba.com/agendas/conference-agenda/iron-ore-green-infrastructure-catapults-afric

So we now have the 'planned corporate update' AND this (potential) platform opportunity to look forward to BEFORE the 11th.

And -if AT sticks to the plan outlined in the Proactive port MoU interview - we should also get something re power (x 2?) :

.."The company is poised for MULTIPLE milestone announcements in early 2025, including power agreementS and strategic partner updateS."

GLA and ATB

Attendees for Indaba Include :

- Strategic : Africa Finance Corp

- Platinum : AngloAmerican

-Gold : Africa Development Bank; BHP; JOGMEC (Japanese strategic minerals agency); RTZ; and

MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND MINERAL RESOURCES, KSA;

- Silver : GLEN and Trafigura.

GLA

Hi all,

I asked copilot 'What years have MPD-Congo previously attended Indaba', with the reply :

.."MPD Congo has attended the Mining Indaba conference in previous years, including 2023 and 2024. Their participation in these events highlights their ongoing commitment to promoting their iron ore exploration and development projects in the Republic of Congo..."

So MPD's presence -by itself - is nothing unusual.

Harva, THIS year, the timing relative to AT's 'newsflow' RNS and the agenda item MM has highlighted seems particularly convenient.

So we now have the 'planned corporate update' AND this (potential) platform opportunity to look forward to BEFORE the 11th.

And -if AT sticks to the plan outlined in the Proactive port MoU interview - we should also get something re power (x 2?) :

.."The company is poised for MULTIPLE milestone announcements in early 2025, including power agreementS and strategic partner updateS."

GLA and ATB

I asked copilot 'What years have MPD-Congo previously attended Indaba', with the reply :

.."MPD Congo has attended the Mining Indaba conference in previous years, including 2023 and 2024. Their participation in these events highlights their ongoing commitment to promoting their iron ore exploration and development projects in the Republic of Congo..."

Make of that what you will.

GLA and ATB

MPD has the concession.

Would suggest a buy-in, rather than a buy-out (of topco).

AIUI

Same time zone; politically astute; lots of Africa-relevant connections; Elphick, Trahar, Guava 'home crowd'....what's not to like?

'Make it so' !

GLA

Two mining events the same week, I chose the wrong one!

Yours - the Indaba- is a day longer, to Thursday 6, which makes AT's ability to choreograph things for ZIOC (if needed) even more problematic.

Ho hum

GLA

.."Phillip Clegg from Orion Resource Partners is at the same event as Andrew Trahar in South Africa next week..."

Well, the InvestAfrica Mining series -running from Mon 3 to Weds 5 - seems to be about the rarer minerals that AT looks after at Vision Blue (lithium, cobalt, copper), I guess he has to keep up appearances (geddit?) otherwise folk might talk...

(a) This might inhibit his (presumed) role as MC for any ZIOC event ?, which may explain the absence of info so far.

(b) I see incidentally - from the Vision Blue website - that Johnny Velloza is on the team as 'Technical Expert-Consultant'...which also includes

- Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan - Director, former CEO of Vedanta Resources and of AngloGold Ashanti; and

- Tony Trahar - Adviser, former CEO of AngloAmerican and the person who .."negotiated and implemented the US$19bn “take private” of the De Beers diamond group with the Oppenheimer family and the Government of Botswana..."

I imagine he'll have worked extensively with Clifford Elphick, then.

All good stuff.

GLA

Glencore might be a little'political' , but ExCel might be back in contention, given the (latest) AbuDhabi connection....

The ExCeL London is owned by the Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Company (ADNEC)

Hat tip to Vet10.

GLA and ATB

Oh look!

.." UAE recently signed a CEPA with Oz...and is the Gulf's biggest investor...incl mineral resources..."

Hat tip to Vet 10 for Https://www.agbi.com/mining/2025/01/adq-joins-orion-to-invest-1-2bn-in-metals-jv/

.."The third-largest of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, ADQ, is setting up a $1.2 billion joint venture with the US investment company Orion Resource Partners to invest in the metals and mining sector.

The 50-50 joint venture will be based in Abu Dhabi and will target long-term agreements to source essential metals and minerals, including copper and high-grade iron ore, in emerging markets across Africa, Asia and Latin America, ADQ said in a statement.

The two sides have committed themselves to deploying an initial $1.2 billion of capital over the course of the first four years of the joint venture.

“The establishment of Orion Abu Dhabi is a natural step for us, allowing our companies to execute their ambitious growth plans with the assurance of a resilient supply of essential resources,” said Hamad Al Hammadi, deputy group CEO at ADQ.

Orion Abu Dhabi will invest in mining companies through multiple asset classes, including equity, senior debt and production-linked instruments, such as royalties, streams and off-takes..."

GLA

Seb 30 mins ago

🔴Draft for the seizure of $310 million in collateral from Brady Bonds. All that remains is Judge Loretta Preska’s signature for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to release the assets.

GLA

2 x snippets from today's depeches :

(1) The PCT (Congo Workers Party) announces an event in honour of Big Den

.."February 1979 Movement: the PCT announces a meeting to pay tribute to Denis Sassou N'Guesso

On 5 February 2025, at the Palais des Congrès in Brazzaville, to pay tribute to President Denis Sassou N'Guesso, ‘the man of 5 February 1979’.

The theme was ‘The PCT, more than ever, behind comrade Denis Sassou N'Guesso, the great Helmsman of the Nation’.

DSN's vision; 5 February 1979, the rebirth of the PCT thanks to DSN's leadership."

(2) Lack of coordination (!) means another event has been rescheduled :

.." the idea of organising a mega rally around the President of the Republic was put on the public map on 21 January when the identity of the character embodied by ‘The Patriarch’, whose posters were displayed in parts of Brazzaville for around three months was revealed. Behind these posters we saw Denis Sassou N'Guesso, whose followers expect to celebrate in public at the boulevard Alfred-Raoul. At last news, the date of 5 February has been

chosen by the Parti congolais du travail (PCT) which will be paying tribute to the founder

of the Central Committee at the Palais des Congrès."

(3) Meanwhile , at the Energy Summit in DaresSalam (attendees incl Africa Development Bank and World Bank), Big Den doubes down on his commitment re an increase in renewable energy (hydro and solar) :

.."‘The countries of the Congo Basin have already identified a series of water and electricity projects. I'm talking about 200 thousand megawatts. By saying this, I'm referring to

the extraordinary Inga site and others. In the Congo Basin, with the projects that we are launching today, we are in a position to supply electricity to Africa’, said the Congolese

Congolese head of state, Denis Sassou N'Guesso.

[ More significantly] .."The UNDP maintains excellent relations in the support for electrification of rural areas in the Congo. We have an ambitious programme ... to electrify these isolated rural areas, opening them up to energy by using renewable energy sources, IN PARTICULAR HYDROELECTRICITY , but also solar resources’.

GLA and ATB

Hi Driving,

These things take time...and lots of steps.

For illustrative purposes only (!), consider this real world example :

Timeline: Glencore closes in on Xstrata deal

Reuters

November 20, 201212:15 PM EST

(Reuters) - Glencore's $31 billion takeover of miner Xstrata got the go-ahead from both sets of shareholders on Tuesday. Europe's antitrust regulators are due to give their verdict by Thursday.

.."Here are the major steps this year that have led to the deal.

February 7, 2012 - Glencore and Xstrata agree an all-share merger to create a commodities powerhouse, spanning mining, agriculture, oil and trading. Glencore offered 2.8 new shares for every Xstrata share.

April 9 - Qatar's sovereign wealth fund increases its stake in Xstrata to just over 5 percent and becomes Xstrata's third-largest shareholder behind Glencore and asset manager BlackRock Inc. . Qatar raises its stake in Xstrata again to over 10 percent in June.

May 31 - The two companies detail the terms of the deal, including a three-year retention package to be worth millions of dollars for Xstrata boss Mick Davis. He is to stay on as chief executive of the combined group, with Glencore's Ivan Glasenberg as deputy chief executive.

June 26 - Qatar demands better terms for the deal asking for 3.25 new Glencore shares for every Xstrata share, up from the 2.8 on offer - the first time Qatar's sovereign wealth fund has taken such an activist role in one of its holdings.

July 11 - Xstrata says shareholders will vote on September 7 on the miner's planned takeover by Glencore, effectively giving the commodities trader and rival investor Qatar six weeks to hammer out an agreement on the terms.

September 7 - After last-minute, late-night talks that ended hours before a scheduled shareholder vote, Glencore raises its offer for Xstrata, hoping to rescue the deal by wooing Qatar and other key investors. Glencore's Glasenberg will now lead the combined company. Xstrata shareholders had been expected to reject the merger on the original terms.

Glencore proposes a revised offer of 3.05 new shares for every share it does not already own, up from 2.8.

October 1 - Xstrata gives its long-awaited blessing to the revised bid from Glencore, bowing to investor pressure to push through a new vote structure, in order to ensure the merger isn't sunk by a payment plan to retain top managers.

November 15 - Qatar says it will vote for two key resolutions on the takeover but will abstain from voting on the multimillion-pound management retention plan, increasing the chances of that aspect of the deal being voted down.

November 20 - Glencore shareholders vote in favor of its $31 billion takeover of Xstrata. Xstrata shareholders also back the deal, while voting down the retention plan.

Xstrata chairman John Bond resigns."

And that was a relatively 'plain vanilla'* two-party deal between 2 Western corporates....a comparative doddle.

IMO

GLA and ATB

.."The management must have reserved/booked a venue for the 11th and one has to ask why the venue has yet to be announced -Why ?"

Have they booked somewhere? Yes, there's no breach of confidentiality in doing that.

Why haven't they told us the location? Because they're not ready to. What would make the location - in isolation- 'newsworthy'? So why give a hostage to fortune?

Think about it : If you thought your daughter was about to announce engagement/marriage, you might (1) book /reserve the venue...and (2) even suggest that potential invitees* 'keep the date free in their diaries'...but wouldn't say more than that, would you?

*Mostly 'friends and family'

"Alternatively why announce a meeting if you yet to finalize the “Strategic Partner Process”?

See (2) above.....except that a lot of the * invitees are likely to be VIPs in industry or politics (maybe PEP's also - joke!), quite likely 'frenemies' etc.

An early sight of the guest list (possibly not the final version) might have all sorts of unintended consequences....and once the list is in the 'private/public' domain, an untimely leak is harder to prevent.

Just look at the hoohah surrounding a Royal Wedding..or funeral, come to that. Or Presidential inauguration, as a topical example. Never mind the subsequent seating arrangements....;->

If you think in terms of us as Shakespeare's groundlings - and expect to be treated as such - the wait becomes much easier.

.."In Elizabethan theatres, the stage was surrounded by some space before the terraced rows of seats began, and the groundlings stood, crowded together, on the bare earth, pushed right up against the stage.

They were the common folk, known as ‘stinkards’ and ‘penny-stinkers.’ There were obvious reasons for that. The word ‘groundlings’ was actually the name of a small fish with a large, gaping mouth. The area where they stood was known as ‘the pit’ or ‘the yard.’ You only paid a penny, but then you had to stand, usually uncomfortably, and often in the pouring rain, crushed against other people, to watch the play..."

Just IMO, DYOR, AFAICS, AIUI etc etc

Two further thoughts :

- Rio in Simandou is a precedent for FMG...and might be interested in joining in the PR fallout management;

-Ausenco is Queensland based...

- UAE recently signed a CEPA with Oz...and is the Gulf's biggest investor...incl mineral resources.

Hmm...

Recall that ousted Bongo is Big Den family, his son-in-law, IIRC.

And the family is still being squeezed- gently so far - re its assets, including a stake in one of the bigger local banks.

Africa Intelligence has covered this.

Big Den would have to weigh up the importance of family loyalty and the benefits accruing to self and C-B of the Project vs the risk of possibly upsetting a (young, military) neighbour.

Forrest would have to weigh up the risk of dissing Gabon and risking loss of Belinga (but what's that worth to him now ?) and trying - but failing- to get a piece of Zanaga....and in the process exposing FMG's ore-grade vulnerability, with the governance/litigation risks you've pointed out.

Could the 'master of the subsidy' pivot and persuade Oz that it was in the country's interest to help the industry in its transition?

I learnt from my son a new word recently : 'monkey-branching'.

I wonder if that's what Forrest is having to consider?

GLA and ATB

From https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/fortescue-claims-green-iron-lead-over-rio-tinto-bhp/news-story

Appeal for subsidies to 'go green' , with competing technologies : Rio/BHP using gas, FMG proposing hydrogen.

.."“Australia has a strong history of public investment to create the industries that have kept our economy strong over the decades, such as the significant investment by government to kickstart the oil and gas industry in the 70s,” Mr Otranto said.

“The whole of industry is calling for bold policy to establish a new green iron industry.”

he NeoSmelt project is slated to be in production some time in 2028 if all goes to plan for Rio, BHP, BlueScope and Woodside at the Kwinana site and with so far unproven technology.

Fortescue is also relying on technology breakthroughs as it contemplates building a commercial scale green iron plant in the Pilbara. It has revealed plans for a 1-2 million tonne a year plant, but is exploring opportunities for an even bigger plant likely to involve a multibillion-dollar investment.

It is set to begin pre-feasibility studies on the commercial-scale plant early next year.

Fortescue is relying on federal and WA government support to launch the technology-dependent industry.

A lot is riding on the technology and a combination of DRI-ESF working effectively for BHP, Rio and Fortescue. BlueScope this week said THE LOW AND MEDIUM GRADE IRON ORE PRODUCED IN THE PILBARA DID NOT WORK WELL in the DRI process GAINING FAVOUR as a way to cut emissions.

The NeoSmelt partners hope reductions of up to 80 per cent in emission intensity can be achieved in processing Pilbara iron ore through a DRI-ESF combination.

Other lower emission-­intensity production options emerging as alternatives to blast furnaces, such as electric arc furnaces, require scrap steel and DRI produced from HIGH GRADE iron ore..."

+++++

(1) The penny's dropped, I'd say, with a resounding 'clang'.

(2) Re subsidy-harvesting, the BTL comments have an interesting example :

.."Canadian company Champion Iron already produces high grade Iron ore suitable for electric blast furnaces. They have access to cheap hydrogen power.

Will Fortescue project be competitive against the Canadians without government subsidies?"

HTH

Snippets from Dec 31 article :

.."Hailed as a project that would “open growth opportunities” for Andrew Forrest-led Fortescue throughout Africa, sources close to the project suggest the mine has a strained relationship with Gabon’s military rulers and stood down contractors and slowed exploration activity in the lead up to Christmas...

“Fortescue remains fully committed to the Belinga iron ore project and the long-term benefits a large-scale development will bring to Gabon,” a Fortescue spokesperson said.

“Our discussions with the Gabon government remain positive and we continue to work together to advance a potential large-scale development.

“The project is still in an early stage of development, with an immediate focus on exploration and studies.

“As a result, in the short term there will be an ebb and flow in job numbers as we move through various stages, finish our initial main camp construction, and allow time for studies to be completed.

“We remain focused on prioritising the employment of a local workforce and will explore ways to upskill and redeploy staff to other areas of the business where possible.

Fortescue did not respond to questions about whether exploration work had come to halt, or how many employees it had on the ground in Gabon.

Perth-headquartered Fortescue earmarked $US200m for early-stage mining development at Belinga in 2023-24.

It has not provided guidance on capital expenditure at Belinga in 2024-25 after shifting focus to exploration and study work

Julie Shuttleworth, one of Dr Forrest’s most trusted lieutenants at Fortescue for more than a decade, was running the project before she left the company in June last year.

Sources said Fortescue was finding the going tougher in Gabon under military rule after making rapid progress with Belinga under the former president.

The immaterial volume of iron ore on board was sourced from a small operation at Belinga, a potential high-grade deposit in Gabon’s northeast that has been subject to extensive studies and was once on BHP’s radar.

Fortescue metals division chief executive Dino Otranto hailed the shipment as a remarkable achievement at the time.

“This project has the potential to revolutionise our portfolio and ultimately create a product that will be the envy of our peers. It will also open growth opportunities for Fortescue throughout Africa,” he said

++++++++++++

(1) Sounds like FMG needs to find a replacement, I'd say.

(2) The BTL comments are mostly unflattering to Forrest, portraying him as opportunistic, unprincipled and a subsidy-harvester, who 'struck lucky' early on and has been playing 'the system' ever since

HTH.

I have a 4 week subscription, for AUD 4, hopefully won't need it after that.

.."Pipeline anyone?.."

Well, one attraction of a slurry pipeline - apart from the saving in transport costs it already represents (and ZIOC has already touted as a 'selling point') - is that it isn't suitable for 'mission creep' of the type that a rail route lends itself to :

https://news.goalfore.com/detail/64253/gabon-in-talks-for-belingamayumba-railway.html

As specified by the Minister for Mines [ why he?] the proposed railway from Belinga to Mayumba in Gabon is intended to cater to mining, freight, and passenger transport. Here are the main specifications:

Route: The railway will link the Belinga iron ore project in the northeast to the PROPOSED port at Mayumba on the southern Atlantic Ocean coast.

Tracks: It will have two tracks, unlike the single-track Setrag-operated Transgabonais railway [ Franceville - Libreville]

Service Track: There will be a service track to allow for better maintenance.

Open Access: The railway will be open to all mining operators, FREIGHT transporters, and PASSENGER services.

The port development is part of a wider regional development programme - the Grande Mayumba Development Company , conceived by a PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP, between the Gabonese government and the London-based African Conservation Development Group.

Its website https://afcondev.com/who-we-are doesn't allow you to drill down and get any detail about its finances or who runs it.

A quick look at Companies House says that ACDG , incorporated in July 2021, was dissolved in July 2023 and thereafter, as bona vacantia , its assets (whatever they may be) belong to the Crown.

So you have a Minister with a long social 'wishlist' and an end-destination site coordinator of dubious status and mainly interested in conservation and eco-tourism.

Deal with that...or with a single-purpose, self-contained, largely automated, (mainly) gravity-assisted point-to -point delivery system...

No contest, AFAICS.

GLA