Member Info for extrader

Hi mbingo,

Everyone focusses on cash - understandably - but all NSF has been doing is running down its book. A prudent choice, but basically a 'harvest' policy....which is finite.

At some point, they'll want to go cashflow negative...because they're expanding the business.

ATB

Hi CF73,

Agree we're making progress.

Today's Africa Intelligence suggests that AFC role (your 3.) may be a little subdued :

…"Nigerian banking giant AFC struggles to keep expansion plans on course

In the midst of striking up new partnerships with foreign companies such as Olam and seeking new shareholders, the public-private bank Africa Finance Corp has suffered a setback at the hands of Moody's. The poor rating it received in May has been hampering its ambitious expansion plans. …"

ATB

Hi beardozer

If it’s “ not much to ask“, you must be most of the way there already ....;-). ?

Not long now........perhaps.

ATB

Meanwhile, China seems to be showing a bit more pragmatism/flexibility in Africa.….

From today's Africa Intelligence :

.."Chinese banks at heart of Angolan debt relief talks

The state-run Eximbank of China, China Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are leading the talks on Angola's debt to China. …"

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

I'm a city (not City) boy myself, so didn't know (until recently) there was a difference between hay and straw ….for anyone curious, the first has a lot more nutritional value...

Oh ! That was probably your point. Doh !

ATB

Oops ! Me again,

Forgot to include coal in my commodities subset : NCCL, which in some ways is useful for possible read-across to ZIOC, esp. in view of the 'promotor/developer' initial overlap....and how things seem to be playing out over there.
You seem to have a fair copy of the script....;->

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

Thanks for the feedback ! Re your Q's

- ZIOC is in the high risk / high reward end of my portfolio, in a commodities subset of abt 12% of investable assets (the others being a gold/silver mine and a copper/lead mine). I tend to think in terms of 'months living expenses' at risk relative to 'years living expenses' if it works out...

- I think the Simandou/ZIOC read-across is imperfect : Simandou is a big enough dog to 'wag the tail' of the infrastructure : rail and port are an 'incidental but necessary' part of the equation. AIUI , Guinea has neither rail (to that part of the country nor a 'proper'/ dedicated deep-water port - I'm open to correction on this). But the asset size justifies both....and Guinea can/will 'subcontract ' the entire project to the French(?)/Singapore/Chinese consortium, who AIUI are responsible for the finance.
OTOH , Zanaga BY ITSELF doesn't tick those boxes : there's already a port of sorts (PN); only it (and Sapro Mayoko ?) benefit from a rail upgrade; only it (and Sapro Mayoko ? ) have an up-country power need; a port upgrade only makes commercial sense if there's a lot of other/new/extra throughput (phosphate, etc) and /or ancilliary SEZ activity (steel mill, beneficiation plant ? ).Each of which requires lots of co-ordination...and finance. Our asset size is respectable, for sure, but only eventually....and we aren't coming/haven't come up with serious proposals as to how to finance the indirect supports we need.... and how to integrate them into a 'master plan'. For sure, C-B isn't going to.....and doesn't have the credibility or capacity.
Cue COIDIC as 'the enabler' ...?? ;->

COIDIC should have put some meat at least on the bones of a deal by now, IF there is substance to their role...coronavirus may be a help or a hindrance (complications vs 'stimulus'); the Chinese (like good Communists everywhere) attach great importance to the appearance of 'legality' , so I think an IMF OK (hopefully early July, maybe an 'easy win' with all the other cr*p that must be filling their in-trays ?) is still important for the process...

HTH ! I've wittered on a bit whilst waiting for a hay delivery...

ATB

Hi munchbox,

Here's a counter-argument to the points you make. My comments in [BRACKETS]

.."Need to wake up here. [I THOUGHT WE WERE ALL 'WOKE' THESE DAYS...;->]

Now listen to these words carefully and maybe just maybe you will
Know when and why.

ZIOC can NOT DO ANYTHING WITHOUT GLENCORE having a say. [AGREE...AND LOTS MORE THAN 'A SAY' ]

THEY have spent the $200m ( xstrata) and THEY are in no rush with this asset they classify as GREENBELT .... glencore specialise is BROWNFIELD projects. For the hundreds of millions that Are required here in the middle of nowhere they can easily go and buy assets on the market. [ GREENFIELD....GLEN DON'T NEED TO BE A BUYER ( THEY ALREADY OWN 50%) AND IS UNLIKELY TO BE A DEVELOPER. OUT OF INTEREST, THOUGH, CAN YOU POINT TO ASSETS OF A COMPARABLE SIZE AND QUALITY ? 'EASILY' YOU SAID...]

The pandemic has really stuffed Zioc. Here you needed economies booming [EXACTLY THE SITUATION IN CHINA, IF YOU FOLLOW THE MEDIA].... glencore making silly profits [ONLY IF THEY'RE A BUYER OR DEVELOPER, THEY WANT TO PAY DOWN DEBT, REPORTEDLY, SO A SALE /DISPOSAL WOULD MORE LIKELY BE THEIR ENDGAME] ....iron ore at $150 and etc etc.

Bank won’t come near this [ONLY RELEVANT IF WE/GLEN ARE INVOLVED. AN IMF DECISION IS DUE SHORTLY, WHICH IF FAVOURABLE WOULD GIVE 'POLITICAL' COVER TO MORE CONVENTIONAL LENDERS, MEANWHILE COIDIC'S BRIEF INCLUDES LINING UP (FRIENDLY) CHINESE BANKS OR BUYER/SUPPLIER FINANCING.] ...... this project is a loooooooong way off age if or when it’s sold then don’t expect much, remember guys the market knows everything [ THAT'S A 'COURAGEOUS' STATEMENT ! THE MARKET SEEMS PRETTY INEFFICIENT TO ME - A VOTING MACHINE, NOT A WEIGHING MACHINE AS BUFFETT PUTS IT ] hence the 6p valuation. …"

Zanaga is a challenge , to be sure, with many moving parts that have up to now frustrated material progress being made. And for something to happen, the 'causes and conditions' have to be right.
It seems to me that overall, more boxes are ticked or likely to be ticked in the foreseeable future than at any other time in the Company's history.
The odds still aren't great - so I've sized my investment accordingly - but , like the ad puts it so persuasively : 'Just ask yourself, if not now, when ?'

Differences of opinion are healthy, after all, that's what makes a market...!

ATB

Hi all,

Nguesso (and others) break OPEC's ranks, per latest Africa Intelligence :

.."OPEC latecomers Bongo, Sassou and Lourenço first to flout rules

The Covid-19 crisis has forced members of the Vienna-based organisation to drastically cut their production, but a number of African countries have ostensibly disregarded their obligations. …"

How to win friends and influence people (not).

ATB

This tweet's from Global Times, an official PRC Govt mouthpiece :

.."There is indeed some truth in the argument that curbing Australian iron ore imports would have negative impacts on China's economy, but Australia would suffer much greater economic damage if China were to make such a move. Without Australian iron ore, China may have to PAY MORE AND SPEND TIME [my bold] seek alternatives from Brazil or Africa and cultivate domestic iron ore sources. Australia, however, will never find big buyer to replace China, especially considering the coronavirus pandemic has weighed down global demand for commodities.

While there is no denying that China would face economic repercussions if it bans or restricts Australian iron ore imports, the Australian economy would definitely suffer more. It would be a big mistake for anyone to think that despite its dependence on iron ore China wouldn't cut Australian imports. China will not tolerate further BEHAVIOUR THAT TOUCHES ITS BOTTOM LINE , EVEN IF RETALIATION COMES AT THE EXPENSE OF ITS ECONOMIC INTERESTS..."

Presumably, the 'bottom line' is political interference, rather than financial..

ATB

From an email to me about 4 weeks back :

Andrew Trahar
Corporate Development and Investor Relations | Zanaga Iron Ore
Tel: +442073991105 | Mob: +447841490035 | www.zanagairon.com

HTH and ATB

Hi Genghis,

What concerns me about the OWC comments are that (a) the OGA have asked/told HUR to drill 2 x appraisal wells - presumably to re-confirm OWC - and (b) never mind the squid, there's been a 'jellyfish' theory that says the body of oil (ie the bulk) may be shallower and HUR was lucky to find a low-hanging tentacle...

I hold, but much reduced (in number, as well as value ;-<)

ATB

Hi stz,

…"FRR still remains in my portfolio, but am not holding out on any positive news there and PREM will improve in time.
12/5/2020 : PREM 'trapped @0.81p' [so since 2015/6] s/p now 0.101p; "

It's curious that you come here to criticize holders of ZIOC, who believe that it will " improve in time " in light of your own approach , as illustrated above.

The Bible (I'm agnostic) has all sorts of good stuff, distilled wisdom, one might say. So we have

'Let him who is without sin cast the first stone;" and Mathew 7 , 1-5
"1 Judge not, that ye be not judged.
2 For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again.
3 And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?
4 Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye?
5 Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye. "

Remember, this all kicked off with you sharing the joy of your 'new investment strategy', by implication encouraging us to follow your example.

On the evidence to date, I'll pass.

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your other investments.

Hi Mynytho,

"Google is your friend " ! As with other things in life, it sometimes just depends how you frame the question …;->

Trying ' glencore glasenberg succession' gave me this
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/the-men-who-would-be-king-of-glencore-move-into-the-spotlight/45331650, from Oct 2019;

and, more recently Jan 2020, this
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/11/glencores-billionaire-boys-club-pack-bags-next-mining-giant/, unfortunately behind a paywall, so I can't tell whether they agree on the likely 'names in the frame'.

From our perspective, I would think that 'dark horse/maybe interim CEO' Peter Freyberg might be the most beneficial : "Peter Freyberg is currently Chief Executive Officer at Glencore Australia, Non-Executive Director at Katanga Mining and Head of Industrial Mining Assets at Glencore..."
He's ex Xstrata and was closely involved with Xstrata's exercise of its buy-in option that gave it (now GLEN) the 50% + 1 share stake . From the RNS 8 Feb 2011 :

.."Xstrata Coal Chief Executive Peter Freyberg said: "Our decision to exercise our option to acquire management control of the Zanaga Project enables Xstrata to evaluate in greater depth the potential of the project, as part of our strategy to build a meaningful iron ore business over the medium term. …"

Let's hope (a) he gets a shot at the top slot in the near future and (b) considers Zanaga a piece of 'unfinished business' !

ATB

Hi beardozer,

It was an idle 20 mins, literally whilst I was waiting for paint to dry. If you're not aware, you can click on a poster's name and see quickly which shares he/she is currently posting about...and also a history of their past posts. I didn't have to go back far for a pattern to emerge.
I was also a bit slowed by not being familiar with most of the shares stz mentioned. But punching in the EPIC in stocko...ia gave me a quick overview.
The market is right to be down, but has also thrown out the baby with the bath water....and there'll be fortunes made amidst the carnage if you call it right, just as there were in 2007/8. I was lucky with RBS USD prefs and Bradford and Bingley bonds.
Obv, we all need liquidity to take advantage of these opportunities, a 'monetisation event' at ZIOC would be very timely !

Speaking of which, we're due annual results from ZIOC at the latest in 11/12 business days....which should include the promised update re (a) COIDIC and (b) funding.

ATB

Oops ! My attempt to paraphrase , rather than quote the FT, didn't work out, somehow.
Apols, FT.

Hi all,

Anybody contacting AT might want to ask who exactly is the intended audience of ZIOC's tweets ?

Today's, from the FT, concludes that , apart from domestic demand, China's booming steel production may be sold overseas to faltering international steelmakers ...and to infrastructure projects , esp Africa, under its Bridges and Roads initiative....

Good general 'mood music, to be sure, but it's nothing that the industry doesn't already know...and there's nothing of substance for any 'fired-up' investor to get their teeth (or money) into..... and repeating the same/ similar arguments every few days ends up being counter-productive.

"Where's the beef ?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where%27s_the_beef%3F#:~:text=" Where's the beef? ",an idea, event or product.

ATB



Even if the metal becomes a point of friction, China’s steel is likely to find buyers beyond its borders, especially as Beijing seeks to expand its overseas investment through its so-called Belt and Road Initiative. “China is going to find other markets,” said Mr Sardain of Roskill. “Just look at Africa.”

Hi all,

We all get exasperated with posters who mix up DRC and C-B, eg warning of an Ebola risk 1500 miles away.

Seems they're not the only ones …
From Africa Intelligence :
.."DRC confuses Taiwan for China as it seeks to repay 30-year-old loan

Félix Tshisekedi is currently negotiating the rescheduling of a $57m loan from Taiwan's Exim-Bank which dates back to the Mobutu era. The problem is that until very recently the Congolese government thought it was negotiating with China, the country's biggest donor, rather than Taiwan... "

Made me laugh, anyway ;->

ATB

Hi all,

Nguesso's jet seized in France by an exasperated creditor...

See https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-06-11-a-jet-from-congo-brazzaville-seized-in-bordeaux.SkZfYjMyaI.html
and Africa Intelligence :

..CONGO : The unwanted ping that could cost Sassou Nguesso ...
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-and-west-africa_business/2020/06/11/the...
1 hour ago · Because Congo's exasperated creditors keep a constant eye on it, the country's presidential Falcon 7X has flown furtively for months. Alas, an oversight allowed Mohsen Hojeij, who says Congo owes him Because Congo's exasperated creditors keep a constant eye on it, the country's presidential Falcon 7X has flown furtively for months...

ATB

Hi all,

Ref the thread on iron ore, seems as though construction co's in Congo-B can't afford to buy any product : from today's Africa Intelligence

…"Congo's ailing construction sector on international drip feed

Only the very few projects that are backed by foreign loans have survived the Covid-19 pandemic. Congo's worn-out government has simply stopped paying all other construction firms...."

Just as well that COIDIC's brief - AIUI - includes sourcing/raising the finance element of its 'package' of deals !

ATB