Member Info for extrader

Hi Mitch984

..."there is zero indication from AT's update whether that will be in my lifetime or my kids'!.."

Well, I recently bought for my granddaughter....

Make of that what you will !

ATB

Hi jonnychi,

.."Must be close to a progress update from Coidic / Yantai Port..."

The next 'statutory' opportunities are the AGM, usually held early Sept, when they could say something if so minded and release of interims to June 2020, due by end of September. So max. 10 weeks or so. AT has confirmed that this RNS WILL include an update of 'material post balance-sheet date events'.

This in response to a question I put recently on (a) your topics and (b) progress on the Shard subscription arrangement. On the latter, AT said ZIOC was happy with this bespoke structure, ie tailor-made to ZIOC specific circs and requirements , it's a US import, but novel for the UK and that it was working well thus far.

ATB

Hi HawaiifiveO,

Traders deal on short-term momentum/sentiment, investors will be looking at fundamentals.
From the description of the arrangement with Shard - and Shard's profile, have you looked at it ? - I think ZIOC is targeting a new/different pool of investors that maybe the brokers don't reach.
Anybody already aware of ZIOC can buy in the regular market. Any potential subscriber via Shard will be aware of the current market price, but may be willing to pay a slight premium for 'anonymity' or quantity (ie they wouldn't want the price to move against them).
If you agree the above likely profile of target Shard subscriber, they're unlikely to be in it for a quick turn, I'd suggest.

When you write :.." I would not be surprised to see some market maker games shortly, you could see a drop in the SP to the low 5p's or even 4p's to get the volume moving to 'accommodate' the financing...", I think you're overlooking that (a) the lower the s/p , the less funding ZIOC gets, which isn't in their interest; (b) the lower the s/p, the less in cash terms Shard gets for its 5%..so, if you're suggesting that the MMs will drive the price down to let' mates' buy in cheap, they'll only access the 'regular' pool, because ZIOC/Shard won't sell.
A conventional placing would not be cost-effective and probably unnecessarily dilutive (because of the discount implicit in any 'floor' and the cost of underwriting a 'floor), also time-consuming re disclosure requirements , etc.

All IMO, NAI, DYOR etc etc
ATB

Me again,

ZIOC bit of podcast starts @15:00 for abt 5 mins. No 'new news', but talks of low strip ratio, transport economies, things 'falling into place', 'materially undervalued', SMC ' a cheap way to raise money', an 'interesting 12-18 months, esp. in view of hard commodities (a sector long in doldrums) coming into their own as people want tangibles instead of fiat currency assets.

How do you rate Alan Green ? He covered McArthur Minerals and Cadence (I skimmed) in a way that seemed a bit 'boosterish' when you consider the numbers.....and , at a personal level, I was a little disconcerted by him also covering ECR, which I first invested in (and lost money on) in a previous existence when it was called Mercator Gold.
The opening para (Chairman's remarks) at https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100312005627/en/Mercator-Gold-Plc-UK-Regulatory-Announcement-MERCATOR gives a flavour :

..."I am pleased to address Mercator’s shareholders with regard to our progress in rebuilding the Company following the traumatic events of 2008..."

Ho hum
ATB

Hi Longlad,

I'm given to understand that the Shard/ZIOC arrangement is somewhat 'interactive', in that some parameters (price and volume) are reviewed regularly.....addressing my voiced 'death spiral concern'.

Take your point re dilution, but also take some comfort from (a) they've avoided until recently, is 8-9 years for a co on AIM a record ? (b) the first (?) dilution onboards the 3 x Team with LTIP and retention incentives; and (c) the suspension/cancellation/clawback provisions of the SMC arrangement all make sense if you've done this financing on a reluctant/needs must basis, rather than precursor to a new 'lifestyle' management approach.
He says, seeing a glass half full.....

ATB

Hi Longlad,

.."I’m guessing all the 100,000 trades going through are our Shard buddies?!.."

Good question ! Is that how it works (the subscription system ) ? Genuine question :

If ZIOC had arranged a conventional placing, would we see X m shares go through the trade reporting system ? The RNS says that the first tranche 7M shares were ' issued to and SUBSCRIBED [my caps] by Shard ' within 3 working days of the agreement (25 Jun) and were ...(expected to be) 'admitted to trading' on 29 Jun.

I'm not quite clear what capacity Shard is acting in : is it just 'marketing', broker or principal ? Reason I ask is that the wording of the Buyback arrangement appears to suggest some kind of pre-agreed price (and maybe even payment ?) between ZIOC and SMC , see :

.."If on termination of the Subscription Agreement, any Subscription Shares subscribed for by SMC have not been sold by it (the "Unsold Shares"), the Subscription Agreement provides that such Unsold Shares shall be BOUGHT BACK [ditto] by the Company from SMC AT THE SAME PRICE [ditto] that SMC has subscribed for such Unsold Shares (the "Buy-Back") .

Maybe they just have/mean here a notional 'target' price and not actual exchange/consideration ?

I'll have to ask.

ATB

Hi all,

Good re-post yesterday on ZIOC's twitter : https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-eyes-african-prospects-iron-out-trade-tension-australia

Some points re China /Oz repeated, a couple of nuggets :
- current state of play : " South Africa is currently China’s third largest source of the metal (albeit a distant third behind Australia and then Brazil) and Mauritania is among its top 15 suppliers. Algeria, Cameroon, Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Gabon, Nigeria, and Madagascar all have reserves, many of which are under study or being developed by Chinese companies...." We are not alone...
- some 'previous' I'd not picked up : "In 2006, China beat out a Brazilian and a French company to secure a $3 billion contract to develop massive iron ore reserves in the northeast of Gabon. The project stalled and was ultimately abandoned due to logistical hurdles and significant pushback from Gabonese civil society over environmental issues and a lack of transparency on both the Gabonese and Chinese sides."
Apart from latest family spat Bongo/Nguesso, the existence of a sizeable in-country potential mine would surely argue against facilitating transhipment of 'our' product ?

ATB

Hi Longlad,

..."Andrew Musk has gone quiet..."

Shame ! I think we'd all like a little 'Musk effect' on ZIOC's share price ;->

ATB

Hi all,

Elizabeth Johnson of NCCL IR has come back, inter alia with .." Had the exercise price been material it would have been announced. I appreciate why you are asking but as it has not been announced we are unable to share this information with you. I can confirm it was share options that where exercised not warrants...."
So share options. I'll have another look and see if that tells us anything.
Meanwhile , on a more cheerful note, she concludes : .." We are very excited about the developments to come over the next 6 months ....and expect plenty of newsflow between now and the end of Q4..."

ATB

Hi guys,

People keep trotting this one out. But if you look at 'investments', WTE has small %age stakes in a number of companies that have themselves small/middling stakes in Guyana/Suriname prospects.
So its net net %age interest, even in the event of success, will be pretty modest in cash terms.

DYOR, NAI etc etc
ATB

This one could run and run....BAME grievances + coronavirus + Labour party control of council (here and Rotherham - different exploitation) + 'tough' Home Secretary + new Labour Opposition leader who'll have to take a position in PMQs (not on the fence).
The political and public relations consequences are hard to guage...and sure to be stoked up by the media.

ATB

I think he uses voicemail to screen calls and then gets back in order of priority : that's an interpretation, based on personal experience : I've always hit voicemail, he's always got back...eventually. I've no feel for how busy he's likely to be at any point in time.
I could imagine his job may be a bit like a goalkeeper's : long periods of inaction, interrupted by occasional moments of panic and frenzied activity...?

ATB

Hi CF73,

To be clear, I'm not concerned re NCCL's funding, just that - given the 'technical' issues - it would have been helpful to be more open about what , if any funds, were raised by option exercise.
Apart from anything else, we might be able to work out from price who exercised, which could be a useful nugget.

ATB

Only the options issue, focussing on the possible fund-raising aspect as being germane in context of (a) 'going concern' qualification, (b) Shareholder loan uncertainty and (c) 30/6 expiry of balance of o/d facility....
If no funds have been generated from exercised options, that'll make the solar investment issue look all the more 'courageous'.

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

I've sent an email to the Company cc Liberum over the weekend on this and related issues, will post any reply.

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

Thanks for this.

- 2 1/2 years to prepare and submit a feasibility study.....
- Baowu and RioTinto looking at Sim 3 + 4...? . This combo are BFFs, see https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/JV-anniversary-China-Baowu. Much more credibility than FMGL, I feel.

Maybe these two could save time/ headaches/ heartache and have a chat with COIDIC.... ?

ATB

Hi again G_G_G,

Of course , if I were in full on 'ramptastic' mode (patent applied for by the twitterati), I'd assert that thinking of funding requirements on a WEEKLY basis/ coupled with ZIOC's rights to suspend, terminate and claw back, was a 'strong hint ' (cough) that news was 'imminent' (patent applied for) and a sign that the BoD and incentivised management were desperate to avoid any unnecessary dilution because of the humongous future value of each share.....;->

In my dreams...

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

.." Shard could drip feed shares into the market to be picked up by PIs.."

How would that work ? Shard only gets paid for shares subscribed and for which it receives X, before passing (X-5%) to ZIOC . I think of their 7M 'subscribed' as , effectively, an 'at the money' warrant, that will be 'exercised' = paid for and turned into (tradeable) shares gradually.
The 75K per week figure in any case would be in the context of an average 1.2m traded daily over the last 3 months (per s'pedia), so any 'signal' that was being sent would surely be lost in the surrounding 'noise'.

As to your other suggestion re 'critically important' investors, let's wait and see how quickly we do in fact move to Tranche 2.
AIUI, btw, there's nothing to stop anyone who's ''connected but currently below 3% " from subscribing = generating funds for ZIOC....
Incidentally, I've learned that AT and Hanno Pengilly (CEO at Ncondezi, prev . with JP Morgan / Howarth's alma mater) are old muckers, I'm sure there'd have been opportunities to discuss the pros and cons of 'shareholder loans' a while back.
Why the 'Shard solution' only materialised a couple of days before the reporting deadline...and months after it'd been flagged up here and on other BBs as an issue.....remains a mystery...and possible concern.

ATB

Hi all,

This bit was for me the most interesting part of the 1/7 RNS :

"Yantai Port discussions:
Yantai Port ("Yantai") have been introduced to the Zanaga Project by COIDIC as a Partner in accordance with the Framework Agreement. Yantai is an experienced Chinese operator in Africa. Yantai currently operate mining and logistics operations for more than 40Mtpa of bauxite being exported from Guinea to China. Yantai are also involved in the intended development of the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, a significant iron ore mining asset.
The potential has been identified to use the Zanaga floating port solution to support COIDIC's aim of developing a bauxite processing hub in the region. This could be achieved by pumping imported bauxite into the SEZ via a return pipeline from the FDSO vessel. This development has been identified as one which, if progressed, could have benefits for COIDIC and the Zanaga Project. "

It's interesting that - amidst all the generic stuff about iron ore prices, the OZ/China spat , Brazilian tailings/covid production issues - AT didn't think it was worth a tweet....or maybe because it's sensitive; Yantai was introduced by COIDIC and adds relevant expertise/experience, which suggests that COIDIC is actively engaged in progressing its 'master-plan';
and the suggested 'dual purposing' of the FDSO , for inward delivery of bauxite for processing ( I hae ma doots , on commercial grounds,see below) , tells me that COIDIC is seeking to maximise revenue-generating possibilities.....and incidentally that the suggestion that ZIOC had come up with the FDSO wheeze [because it had fallen out with COIDIC/ the Chinese and was showing it could go it alone/had 'options'] doesn't hold water.

My Q re bauxite processing is that (a) it's not much value-added to upgrade bauxite to alumina : the real money is in alumina > aluminium; and (b) both processes are energy-intensive, the second much more so.
See http://bauxite.world-aluminium.org/refining/energy-efficiency/

That's why the industry tends to be located in places where electricity is (a) plentiful and/or (b) subsidized, preferably both.
Hence hydro (Canada/Norway); geothermal (Iceland); nuclear (France) ; and OPEC nations, particularly the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Plus the 'biggies', China and Russia.
C-B currently has an energy deficit, so it's not immediately clear why think of setting up shop there.
But....(a) if you're setting up an industrial hub in the PN SEZ ; (b) you've got loads of bauxite in the 'hood (Simandou is being developed by a consortium that includes Chinalco and Guinea has bauxite exports); and (c) you're thinking ahead to neighbour DRC and its 'mahoosive' Inga 3 Dam , which if/when completed will have significant energy export sales potential...then maybe it's worth COIDIC throwing this into the mix.
As the marketing people have it ' You sell the sizzle, not the sausage...'

ATB

PS Hat tip to Longlad for a classic Freudian (?) slip :

.."at what price is the SWEAT spot..."

Priceless ;->
ATB