Member Info for extrader

Hi Micky1,

Thanks for this.
I think it's wrong to exclude asset managers (who are often nominee accounts for PI's) from the 'free float'. I have a SIPP with Hargreaves Lansdown and my various holdings appear under their name.
Most of the asset managers listed below fall into that category :

Pictet Asset Management Ltd. 1,588,262,310 4.849
UBS Asset Management 447,071,211 1.365
Fin-Eco SIM Spa, Asset Management 109,820,907 0.335
Interactive Brokers Group 71,996,000 0.220
Unione di Banche Italian Scpa 59,372,319 0.181
Eurizon Capital SGR S.p.A. 41,974,639 0.128
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Ltd. 41,651,793 0.127
A J Bell Holdings Limited 34,986,784 0.107
Global Prime Partners Ltd 30,756,725 0.094
Allianz SE, Insurance Investments 25,319,259 0.077
Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth & Investment 22,730,945 0.069
Close Asset Management Limited 21,354,856 0.065
Peel Hunt LLP., Asset Management Arm 20,331,746 0.062
Equiniti Group Limited, Asset Management Arm 18,853,810 0.058
IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 18,044,310 0.055

Or about 7.75% in toto, using your%ages.

HTH and ATB

Hi IraMil7,

Thanks for the bebeez article , which appears to lay to rest the A1F2/1AF2 quibble.

It also, incidentally, confirms Ceresio and Equita as fronts for VC interests (maybe including the Foglias), likewise Parrot (Global Capital) Malta as the involved 3rd x 4.98% (and not the Foglia Global subsid)...and , in the 'preIPO', ascribed an extrapolated value to "SYME" in 2019 of Euro 25 million

.."Fintech is currently 54.06% controlled by TheAvantGarde Group spa , which, as mentioned, is owned by Alessandro Zamboni. A group of investors is also a member who in June 2019 had subscribed a 2 million euro capital increase in club deal , based on a 100% valuation of 25 million; other investors are Equita sim and Ceresio sim on behalf of their private clients, who have invested in club deals, and the Maltese asset manager Parrot Capital (Global Capital Plc) . "

Thanks again for turning heat into light.

ATB

And in the Washington Post : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-challenge-trials-uk/2020/10/20/

ATB

Hi valencia,

Thanks for pulling this together. Only a couple of quibbles :

- Global Selection SGR [Global Capital Life asset Management] 1.6bn shares / These are 2 x separate entities, the first is part of Ceresio, the second is the holder of 4.98% and a completely separate entity. See Prospectus and put the 2 x names into google search.
- re 1AF2's transfer out ;.."In July 1AF2 Transferred:
1.6bn shares to High West Capital (Singapore) to help open up Asia?
778m shares to Stock Loan Solutions LLC (nr Salt Lake City) to help with the US?
3,5bn to Union Pacific Capital Ltd (London) to drive UK specific uptake?
(another 15% or so attributable indirectly to AZ?),
attributable to AZ + co.....and posted as security for s/t loans needed/used to indirectly provide 'first loss margin' on the first funding (see AZ proactive interview on 30 July, where he explained the RNS's of 29th ).

I think it's highly unlikely Ceresio is the bank : firstly, they're v conservative, prudently geared and don't lend (see the website); secondly, we were told that the captive bank was 1 of 4 zombies/distressed banks (hence the CB interest in off-loading) and would need re-capitalising post - regulatory approval, which doesn't fit Ceresio's profile either.

HTH and ATB

Hi Marco777,

.."Cheap at half the price!!.."

Errm, you might want to re-think that ;-> !

ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

No worries !

On a related vein, I've referred to the niggle I still have about ref. to A1F2 in the lawyer's Oct news re AZ's exercise of call option over TAG shareholdings .."Sinopoli & Partners advised A1F2 S.r.l., managed by Alessandro Zamboni, CEO and founder of The AvantGarde Group S.p.A., in the repurchase of 100% stake in the The AvantGarde Group S.p.A."

https://www.globallegalchronicle.com/ceo-alessandro-zambonis-e91-million-repurchase-of-100-interest-in-the-avantgarde-group-s-p-a/

If you link that to the captive bank RNS, where ap2 focussed on 'and', there's another possible hare to start, see

..it has entered into a strategic agreement ("Agreement") with a leading European Alternative Investment Firm (the "Financial Partner") and SYME's shareholders, 1AF2 S.r.l. and The AvantGarde Group S.p.A. ("Co-investors"), to acquire a bank in Europe (the "Bank").

You've got 'Alternative Investment Firm' - AIF - working with 1AF2 .....and.... AZ being advised by the lawyers in 'A1F2's' acquisition of 'rump' TAG......Maybe A1F2 is another vehicle (with yet more unknown ownership) that owns TAG......

As Lenin is supposed to have said, the existential question is always 'Who/whom ? , or as the Texas oilman so charmingly put it : 'Are you the f*@&or or the f*@&ee..?'

No doubt all will / may be revealed in the fullness of time.

ATB

Hi sharehunter3,

In case you're not aware, LSE has a facility whereby , if you hover on a poster's name, you get a list of their postings.
Go to 'weathergeek', scroll down and I'm sure you'll find a trove of info.

HTH and ATB

Hi all,

Like everyone here, I'm delighted at this news and echo congrats to CF and team.

I'm a little surprised at the lukewarm reaction so far and wonder whether this communication from Imperial (received just now, I'm in one of the Challenge Focus Groups) might explain in part (see para 2) :

.."You may have seen in the news this morning, that a partnership to explore carrying out a human challenge study for COVID-19 has been formally announced (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/206893/uk-researchers-explore-human-challenge-studies/). This partnership includes Imperial College London, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), hVIVO (a leading clinical company with expertise in viral human challenge models) and the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust. As this news was embargoed until this morning we are sorry we were unable to confirm it until now (especially in response to some of your questions)

As we’ve all been discussing, a human challenge study with coronavirus is very complex and needs careful consideration. The announcement relates to a formal partnership, AND DOESN'T CONFIRM THAT A STUDY WILL DEFINITELY GO AHEAD. The final say as to whether the study will go ahead will be made by the Research Ethics Committee (REC). They are fully independent, and have the task of scrutinising every detail in the plan to decide if it is ethically acceptable to go ahead..."

Given the politics, it's hard to imagine this will be other than a formality, but - these days - you never know....

Anyway, I've voted with my feet and taken the opportunity to top up.

FYI, GLA and ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

The Foglia family/Ceresio Group entity

- Global Selection SGR SpA https://www.ceresioinvestors.com/en/societa/global-selection-SGR-SpA.html .."manages the funds of hedge funds Global Manager Selection Fund and China Managers Selection Fund, has a capital of € 3 million and is registered at number 147 of the register of SGRs. Total assets under management amount to over 550 million euros."

- the 4.98% shareholder in SYME is Parrot (Global Capital plc) of Malta , https://www.globalcapital.com.mt

on the face of it , a completely unrelated entity. Although the principal is Italian and has an interest in fintech, as someone has kindly pointed out.

HTH and ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

A few pieces of the puzzle placed (well done the investigators !) but I think some over-enthusiastic interpretation :

- the Foglia family are clearly behind the Ceresio group, but not all the companies you've listed are demonstrably so :
- Equita Capital Group has no stated link : "Equita Capital SGR is part of Equita Group, the independent Italian investment bank listed on the STAR segment of the Italian stock exchange (MTA) with more than 45 years of experience serving companies and institutional investors."...
- Global Capital has no stated link , it's a Maltese-based ex Templeton bancassurance venture , with Mauritius offshore banking antecedents, and a rather chequered regulatory history , previously discussed.
- Belgravia IS part of Ceresio/Foglia .."Belgrave Capital Management Ltd. ("BCM") is a London-based Investment Manager authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") as an Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") Manager, " it manages funds that may - or may not - include Foglia family money.
- Pictet is a completely separate family business, established nearly a century before Foglia/Ceresio, see https://www.group.pictet/about/partners
- Eurofinleading Fiduciaria IS Foglia/Ceresio, but its a TRUST (hint : its name), it 'owns' 1AF2 in the way that Hargreaves Lansdown 'owns' my SIPP.

It doesn't tell you who's behind 1AF2....or A1F2, the confusingly named entity "Sinopoli & Partners advised A1F2 S.r.l., managed by Alessandro Zamboni, CEO and founder of The AvantGarde Group S.p.A., in the repurchase of 100% stake in the The AvantGarde Group S.p.A..", only that AZ 'manages' it (TAG) and is , per D & B , 'sole administrator' of 1AF2.

- it also seems unlikely that Ceresio is the target'captive bank' : (a) it's too large/well-established; (b) IIRC we were told (can't recall where, maybe proactive ?) that the target was 1 of 4 distressed banks ; and (c) it'll need recapitalising.

- it also seems unlikely that the Alternative Finance Group is the vehicle identified, since it talks of AUM of Euro 8 billion, whilst in the RNS we were told that its AUM were ca. Euro 2 billion.

So, some good progress made on establishing link, but also a bit of unwarranted /unproven conjecture.

HTH and ATB

Hi Mitch984,

.."Glencore will know what the distribution rights would be worth to them over the life of the mine, and want to be compensated for that accordingly in any sale..."

Good point ! Any feel for what - as a %age of sale price - those rights might be ?

The reason I ask is : material sales are 3-5 years away, at best; country risk premium will likely remain steep; who knows what DCF rates will look like over the next 20-30 years ?

My point is : The NPV of distribution rights might not actually be that high....and, given the large number of fingers in other pies that GLEN has , I'm sure there will be other non-monetary considerations/trade-offs that could be brought into play, to add more immediate value.

Which may make the change of attitude that we both think GLEN needs to make not that insuperable an obstacle ?

I sent the original article off to AT, btw, it'll be interesting to see how/whether or not he replies !

ATB

Hi Firststopthemoon,

You're pretty quick off the draw, aren't you ?

That tends to make for inaccurate shooting : I actually posited the very situation you describe.......

Never mind, we all make mistakes. Some of us are even big enough to acknowledge them.

Since you - gratuitously offensively - asked, I'm an 'extrader' of LDC debt and made a pile of money over the years on Bulgaria, Cuba, Nigeria and North Korea trade paper, amongst others...then lost a shedload on 'safe' Russia ( holder of 'safe' Income Shares, with a 'first loss' cushion of 75% Capital shares ) so now an 'ex' in that asset class.

Kept the moniker as a salutary reminder of Twain's dictum " “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”

Hope your week has got off to a better start !

ATB

Hi futuresbright,

.."The 4.98s are fascinatingly close to round numbers, for the multiple arms in Ceresio. It explains and awful lot..."

That's because 5% is the obligatory disclosure limit for investment co's, according to the Prospectus....

HTH and ATB

Hi Madscotsman65,

Your company sounds like a prime candidate for the SYME treatment !

Have you contacted them ? Have they got in touch with you ?

AZ seems to be very approachable, why not get in touch ? There's a UK pooled transaction underway atm via StormHarbour, maybe if you're quick they'd consider your application.

GL and ATB

Hi beardozer,

GLEN have never AFAIAA been interested in owning iron ore mines (this may just be a historic hang-up), although they do a fair bit of trading....so might be interested in Zanaga going forward as a source of material...and might even help underpin the finance package with an off-take agreement of some kind.
They do this (offtakes) with a number of other iron ore mines, in Canada, one of the 'stans and somewhere else.
As to why discreet ? Let the potential buyer come to you, you stand a better chance of at least starting the haggling at a sensible level.
AT has already told us that there have been 'approaches FROM' , so there's some interest out there already. Maybe there's a bit of good cop/bad cop going on (between ZIOC and GLEN) ? At any rate, to mix metaphors, I just feel that Ivan's showing a little more ankle.
Then again, maybe it's just me showing confirmation bias.

Enjoy your weekend !
ATB

Hi Hodgeyd,

.."#SYME just changed its communication strategy pursuant to regulation. .."

Translation : it got its knuckles rapped , perhaps for the things futuresbright has mentioned.

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

See you one article and raise you another !

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/coal-demergers-are-a-carbon-cop-out-glencore-ceo-says-20201017-p565y2

I think this one gives a much better portrayal of Galsenberg as a cold-eyed, cynical realist :

- "We see some of our competitors, South32, selling their coal mines. ... How does that help the world to reach the Paris Accord?" he said.
"Those mines then are not depleting or running down, they’re going into the hands of investors, whether the Chinese … or other players who have no intention of reducing scope 3 emissions; if anything, it gives them a free hand to start producing more."

- "although environmental disasters and cultural transgressions hurt the industry's image, investors' primary focus was still on whether the companies generated returns..."

- His aversion to greenfield : "The reason is because we generally get it wrong. We don’t sit back and generate the cash, let the cash generate; we start getting aggressive and we decide it’s time to build a new mine," he said.
A $2 billion mine would often end up costing $10 billion, and arrive three to five years late, Mr Glasenberg said, but many miners were doing it anyway, to prop up production..."
..His investor focus :""We are mining depleting assets, that’s a fact of life," Mr Glasenberg said. "As you deplete it, you don’t have to replace it. Because if a new project doesn’t give you the right return, why bother? Why not give that money back to the shareholders? Don’t build a new mine just to keep that line flat..."

He's talking coal, of course, and the replacement issue doesn't arise, because GLEN isn't into iron ore production in a big way.
BUT, he's laser-focussed on maximising shareholder return (as he should, for personal as well as professional reasons: he owns 9% or so).

My view : GLEN has zero interest in developing Zanaga and Ivan has informally put up a discreet 'for sale' sign.

ATB

"That’s where shareholders lose confidence in us," he also said.

Hi KanakJoshi,

.."who can explain how 30 million shares were sold and the OFFER does not fall through the floor?"

As others have said, most big trades are off book.
And the really BIG moves (RNSable), as the principals shuffle holdings around, are almost always 'direct transfer to security account', of chunks of the initial 'zero/negligible cost' Consideration Shares, so there' s no transparency as to the price actually paid.

Apunter2 seems to have a handle on what's going on behind the scenes, I don't.

ATB

Hi ARahim,

.."While stocks are monitized they could change value, how syme is going to deal with this.."

(1) If SYME is following convention, sotcks are usually valued at lower of cost or realizable value.
(2) They've said they aren't interested in distressed or zombie companies, so realizable value SHOULD be = or more than cost, so provided they lend a %age of cost, they're not affected by fluctuations.
(3) Unfortunately , we (or at least me) aren't clear whether they lend 100% + VAT on the true sale, or only a margin - I think 85% - it depends on which SYME source you look at. I've asked several folk to clarify, so far no reply . Which leads me to
(4) From the varied replies you've already seen, people (including me) aren't sure.

So maybe you should indeed ask the Company....

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

Well, elsewhere - as I understand it - one trust passed to another.
Since - heaven forfend ! - it would be wrong, quite wrong, I tell you - to suggest that they were connected, I see why a declaration would be necessary.
But if SF (for example) was transferring from his SIPP (where he was sole beneficiary, apart from 'expressed wish' heirs) to a family trust (where he was one of the potential beneficiaries), I'm not sure that the potential dilution of his personal interest would warrant disclosure.
We'd be spared all this conjecture, of course, if Firststopthemoon would clarify/support his assertion..

ATB