Member Info for extrader

I think GLEN has a big problem being honest.

I'm sorry.....I'll read that again....

;-

.."It's a very slow process,..."
Maybe.

Maybe not :
- 5 September : coup in Guinea, putting a question mark over BaoWu's ambitions for Simandou ;
- 10 September : audioconference with C-B, where BaoWu supplants COIDIC in the management of SEZ and related matters, including steel mill (and/or power plant ) and iron ore extraction.

IMO

There's also a plan for another dam, downstream of Cahora Bassa. This - some way down the road - would give a second bite at the 'water cherry'...and be able to piggy-back off CB's existing transmission network, AIUI.

And , from the other end of the transmission network, there'll in due course be power coming inland from the coastal/offshore gas - generated power stations.

Indeed !

FMG appears to have a longstanding, close relationship with BaoWu itself, dating back to 2007...and it looks as though one of its first shipments went to them, see
https://www.baosteel.com/group_en/contents/2863/38725.html
.." In February last year, Baosteel Resources Co., Ltd. and FMG signed a 10-year iron ore cooperation agreement. As FMG expands its output, it will supply 20 million tons of iron ore to Baosteel every year. On May 18, Hengshan ship laden with the FMG's first shipment of iron ore departed Port Hedland Australia and arrived at Baosteel's Majishan Port on May 28 after 10 days' voyage..."

and there was a tie-up back in 2012 (not sure of current status) :
https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/fortescue-and-baosteel-announce-iron-ore-merger/

..."Fortescue and Baosteel have announced a merger of some of their iron ore assets.
Under an agreement signed yesterday the two companies will consolidate their interests in the Northstar and Glacier Valley mining leases into FMG Iron Bridge.
Following the completion of the merger Fortescue will own 88% and Baosteel the remaining 12% of the entity, which is a Hong Kong based subsidiary of Fortescue."

Hmmm.

More on BaoWu and Guinea :

BaoWu has been seeking to buy into Simandou, Guinea, se thuis from April 2021

hxxp://aeabc.org/china-to-expedite-simandou-iron-ore-mine-project/

.."Baowu is in talks with both consortia. It has expressed interest to buy the stake of Rio Tinto and is also in talks with the SMB-Winning consortium. Baowu is also setting up an alliance of Chinese steelmakers including Capital Steel, China Minmetals and Jianlong Group.

Under the proposed plan, Baowu will invest USD 4.5B into the Southern Blocks and USD 1.5B into the Northern Blocks. In terms of financing, 35% of the financing will come out Baowu’s own pocket, 25% from the sovereign wealth funds, 10% from institutional investors and 15% from infrastructure investors..."

Maybe it's using C-B as a stalking horse to chivvy Guinea along.....or maybe it's looking at C-B as 'Plan B' ?

I got the impression that there was a general sovereignty issue on the C-B side and that this (+ proximity to the existing refinery) was why the SEZ had been split, with the new refinery being down nearer Cabinda....and perhaps equally importantly, nowhere near the (strategically valuable) port area....

The meeting memo says :
(2)Cad fund a mis fin à la mission qu’il avait confié à China Overseas Infrastructure Developement and Investment Corporation Limited (COIDIC) pour la viabilisation de la zone économique spéciale de Pointe-Noire (emprise A).
(3)Cad fund se propose remplacer la Société China Baowu en lieu et place de COIDIC.

CAD Fund has (2) ended COIDIC's role in SEZ feasibility study and (3) proposes to replace it with BaoWu.

I reckon ZIOC has to update the market re (2).

Wouldn't it be fun if it also said that it had replaced COIDIC with Bao Wu....?

I think I better lie down in a dark room.

See also, from the Dec2019 framework agreement with COIDIC that CAD Fund - (alongside BaoWu) at the recent meeting - is/was a COIDIC shareholder :

.." COIDIC's Founding shareholders include some of China's leading institutions such as China-Africa Development Fund (CADFund), a subsidiary of China Development Bank, as well as China Gezhouba Group International Engineering Co. Ltd., China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), China ENFI Engineering Corporation (China ENFI) specialized in mineral and mining, China Telecom International, Hebei Construction & Investment Group Co Ltd. (HCIG), and Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research..."

So any work done by COIDIC over the last couple of years is likely to be available to CAD Fund (and , by extension, other interested parties).

Worth mentioning too that AT suggested in our long conv back in July that -apart from COIDIC possibly having been over-assertive in the rights it wanted to exercise in the SEZ - there may have been some internal politics (not clear whether internal COIDIC or internal China Inc) involved.

And (doing a dot-joining worthy of the unlamented MinorMiner !) maybe worth noting that Fortescue Metals Group has a long commercial relationship with Bao Steel :

www.baosteel.com/group_en/contents/2863/38725.html
FMG Starts Iron Ore Supply to Baosteel [ 2008-05-30 ] In the morning of May 29, as Chairman Xu Lejiang of Baosteel Group Corporation gave the order, the Hengshan ship laden with 170,000t of iron ore supplied by Australia's Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) started unloading in Majishan Port, marking that FMG has become an important iron ore supplier ...

FMG and BaoWu have discussed deals together in the past https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-in-baosteel-raising-asset-sales-rumours-20120914-ixwty, including Bao taking an equity stake in FMG and /or both working in a J/V on a new mine in Australia.

All good stuff.

Worth noting arguments against Sundance being in BaoWu's sights :

(1) There's ongoing international litigation over the 'expropriation', see https://www.mining-technology.com/news/sundance-seeks-8-76bn-in-damages.
Sundance has litigation finance from Burford, who don't take on anything they don't expect to win.

(2) Export would most likely be via Cameroon : "The Project scope involves the construction of a 510 km rail line dedicated to the transport of iron ore through Cameroon and 70 km rail spur line connecting the Nabeba mines in Congo. It also includes the building of a dedicated mineral export terminal designed for taking bulk iron ore carriers of up to 300,000 tonnes..."

From BaoWu's perspective, this Congo 'initiative' might be seeking a genuine 2nd source of high-quality African ore.....or just a ploy to force the new Guinean government to stop playing around...

The reference to SEZ gas price suggests BaoWu's involvement in power plant or maybe steel mill...

ZIOC will (surely ?) have to make a statement re COIDIC exit.....

Ho hum.

GNI per capita is gross national income divided by midyear population.

Mozambique : $ 1,250
****stan : $ 4,770
Bangladesh : $ 5,310
Zimbabwe : $ 2,850
Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) : $ 2,590
Least developed countries (UN classification) : $ 3,086.

For their sakes, if no other, let's hope that Moz doesn't get sacrificed on the altar of the self-righteous.

"@extrader : "This isn't a sound basis.."...what would you propose to make it more sound ?.."

Don't call it a pipeline, for a start : that presupposes movement. Processing 6 x applicants through due diligence in the first 6 months of 2021 is hardly sign of activity.
These are the sort of criteria that a company in a different sector (SRT Marine Systems - marine surveillance equipment) uses , for its 'validated sales pipeline' :

.."What is the SRT Validated Sales Pipeline?
The existence of a long term macro-trend of governments wanting to enhance maritime security and monitoring results in SRT receiving many enquiries (1)
Only inquiries that have progressed to a point where the prospective customer has made a decision to proceed with the acquisition of a system(2) AND received inprinciple internal political & budget approvals (3)AND is actively engaged in
serious discussions(4) qualify for the VSP and thus become the primary focus of sales teams.
Those not qualifying are provided with standard information to progress their interest until they qualify."

I would suggest that SYME should use an appropriately flexed version of these base metrics for its own Key Performance Indicators.

SRT's 'problem' is converting pipeline into sales; SYME's (until it gets IM up and running) is converting 'interest' into pipeline.

And answering Luckybob 23's comment , what exactly does 'working with someone in the PRE-ANALYSIS phase' actually mean ? You've shaken hands ? You've exchanged business cards ? That's barely a 'prospect', surely ?

Quite likely !
And at that point, they'd be in the pipeline.
Right now, they're just floating around randomly.
This isn't a sound basis, IMO, on which to base a policy of 'underpromise/overdeliver'.
Each to his/her own, though.

If you look at the definition of pipeline customers , you'll find :
.."(2) Includes Client companies for which due diligence is completed or underway and/or eligible prospects which show an interest for the inventory monetisation services and with whom the Group is working in the pre-analysis phase..."

'Showing an interest' is a long way from being 'part of a pipeline', IMO.

.."Additionally, in partnership with hVIVO (part of Open Orphan plc), ENA Respiratory will begin an influenza challenge pre-exposure prophylaxis study in adults ages 18 to 55. The study will evaluate the safety and efficacy of INNA-051 in reducing the total viral load of treated participants versus placebo. The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom and is expected to begin in January 2022..."

All good stuff.

The main negative for me is misrepresentation .

See how the cost of the new facility was understated in yesterday's RNS : I'd said 20% , not 10%, it seems Winnifroth gets to 30% (I know not how).

Or this, from today's RNS :

Of the 271K revenue booked in H1 2021, 182K relates to 2020.

From the RNS.." Of this revenue [£271,000] recognised in H1 2021, £182,000 (67%) relate to balances that had been recognised as deferred income as at 31 December 2020.."

So net new £ 89K booked in H1 2021.

The only one misrepresenting 'facts' is AZ himself : see how the H1 results were presented 31/8 ...barely a month ago :

Group-C.IM Revenue : 271 - N/A 6 clients GBP 1.5bn

it turns out that 6 clients generated new revenues of £89K *, not £271K as 'suggested'.
* which incidentally passes the 'reality check' of 16K due diligence fee each. Six customers DD'd in 6 months.

SYME's RNS's always seem to be like a dance of the 7 veils, except that what you see as the veils are (later) dropped *isn't what you were hoping - or expecting- to see.
*The 'evolution' of the loan for pledged shares terms being an extreme case in point.

IMO

Hi MItch1984,

"A ramper!
We haven't had one of those for quite a while. LOL..."

Here's one I made earlier in an idle hour a couple of weeks back. And sent to AT....

..."Whilst awaiting the next scheduled update, I've been idly wondering whether the AUKUS subs issue and Guinea coup set-back might provide the 'change in dynamics' that you felt was needed ?

What if :
Twiggy [Forrest of Fortescue Metals] makes an offer for ZIOC @ say, 100p. This advances some of his reported diversification objectives. Maybe has silent OzGov /AUKUS support, as a bit of China 'pushback' . ZIOC shareholders and management presumably happy (bearing in mind low 'net'carrying cost).
GLEN has first right of refusal. It either matches (ZIOC shareholders still happy) or it welcomes Twiggy as new partner
Either way, it has extra skin in the game and the 'impasse' has evolved. If Twiggy's involved, the financing side becomes easier.
GLEN still has oil-finance related overdues from C-B.
Meanwhile, France has just had a big strategic set-back (= Suez 1956 ?) and is already re-positioning in Africa (withdrawal from Sahel/'issues' with Putin's Wagner Group in C-B's neighbour, CAR). It has a 'special relationship' (don't laugh) with Francophone Africa, especially C-B , which I recently discovered was home to the Free French in WW2. It must be keen to show that it still 'counts' on the world stage.
US wants to send a message to China. GLEN /Ivan wants to curry favour with US (DoJ, etc). France wants to curry favour with US - and maybe join AUKUS ?
US may also want to do some 'nation-building' (don't laugh) after Afghanistan, why not 'pivot' to Africa ? That might score points with the African American parts of its electorate. Not least as not Israel/Islam/M East etc
Nguesso father has health issues and Nguesso (son) has 'issues' with the US, both might be more amenable to 'persuasion'.
France has the ear of Nguesso and -presumably - Dominique Strauss Kahn (Nguesso's adviser and former IMF MD) and Christine Lagarde (also former IMF head). With Merkel out, Macron will want to put France/himself back on centre stage.

Dream scenario : I don't think DSK is quite Kissinger, but France ends up 'leading' an investment package for C-B that 'ticks a lot of boxes' for a lot of the interested parties........Much more importantly : ZIOC shareholders are happy under either scenario ...

And then I woke up ! "

Perhaps understandably, no reply from AT.

Ho hum.

They've said that a £7m loan will cost £ 0.7m.

Work it out from there.

If the interest charged wasn't upfront on the whole amount, but on a monthly reducing balance basis, the interest actually charged (@ 10%) would be less than £ 0.7 million...about 1/2 , in fact.

HTH

You're looking at amortisation of principal + interest on an ordinary loan .

But look at CLN terms : '"The CLN facility is for the same aggregate value as the short-term loan facility including interest (GBP7.7 million) '.
I.e. interest at 10% is charged up front.

Or they've assumed upfront that interest IS chargeable/payable monthly...but SYME doesn't repay anything in cash and instead you have £ 7.7m convertible into SYME shares...

HTH

.."Amortising loan is just a loan where you repay the capital and the interest,.."

Most loans have that requirement.

An amortising loan is paid off in instalments, a 'bullet' loan is repaid in one lump sum, on maturity.

So a flat rate , lump sum interest charge on an amortising loan has a much higher true interest rate than the declared 10%.

But you knew that.

Everyone's 'even more conveniently missing this bit :

.."The CLN facility is for the same aggregate value as the short-term loan facility including interest (£7.7 million) and can be drawn in tranches equal to the MONTHLY LOAN REPAYMENTS.

This is an amortising loan, repayable over 12 months.

So the average Loan outstanding is £ 3.5 million , making the effective annualised interest 2 x 10 = 20 %.

And the 'reward for risk' warrants @ 20% of face is arguably understated, given the reduced period at risk.

I wonder whether this is the 'amortising loan' that AZ was arranging pre Negma ?

Ho hum.

Any reference to coal is welcome..as is today's slight rise in s/price...but I think we should keep things in proportion : the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy gave 6 words to coal in a 1,000 word (approx) article.
Given his brief, he could hardly have said less.
IMO

Totally agree that politicians like to be able to willy-wave at international gatherings, however it seems unlikely that the Hon Minister would announce anything coal-related 9th-12th Nov in S Africa that run concurrently and controversially with Glasgow COP 26 1st to 12th Nov....