RE: Iran21 Mar 2026 20:31
Hi Toffers, the fertiliser issue started back in 2022 and then continued to perpeptuate again when the Russian under water gas pipes where sabotaged.
"Peter Zeihan has argued that the world was heading into a major fertilizer and food-security crisis because modern fertilizers depend heavily on natural gas, oil, phosphate, and potash, and supply disruptions were already building before the Russia-Ukraine war fully hit. In March 2022 he said the world was on the verge of βthe worst fertilizer situation in modern history,β and warned that it was already too late for the Northern Hemisphere planting season.
In later commentary, he has framed the issue specifically around nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are made from natural gas or oil-based feedstocks. He said the Persian Gulf is responsible for a large share of global ammonia production, so disruptions there would tighten supply, raise prices, and create chronic nitrogen deficits over time outside the U.S.
So Zeihan was not predicting only a short-term price spike. He was warning about a structural, multi-year fertilizer squeeze that could become a recurring food-security problem as energy, ammonia, and shipping disruptions hit global supply."
I would read his book, the end of the world is just the beginning, released in 2024, to get more of an understanding of the situation.