Member Info for EV_Bull

Amazing how nobody values our 30% of Amapa.
Worth >15p per share at cost price and a billion dollar PFS due any day.

If you look at the Bacanora site between Ganfeng and Cadence there is
8.8 Mt of LCE resources at Sonora, open-pit mining
with ~250 year resource life
8.8Mt x $70k/t = $616b
$616,000,000,000 x16.8% = $103,488,000,000 attributable
These are of course in ground values.

It’s on the website, look at the attributable to cadence LCE column
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
Lithium Carbonate is $70k/tonne currently.
If you look at the proven and probable reserves LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) attributable to Cadence 839,000t and multiply the two $67,120,000,000 ($67bn)
If you add the inferred etc then it will of course be more.

I would strongly suspect a deal is already done and will be announced during the Biden visit.
Ganfeng were wanting to sell at least part to US automakers earlier in the year and they have made other purchases recently in Argentina (perhaps to make up for the sale of all or part of Sonora).

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mexico-urge-us-canada-firms-participate-lithium-market-2022-11-15/
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/ganfeng-lithium-lithea/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tz8dyd/exclusive_ganfeng_eyes_us_oems_for_strategic/

The obvious is that Amapa alone is worth 15.7p per share at cost price based on our latest transaction (PFS should increase this) plus 8p in public securities (EMH, HAS and Evergreen to come) plus Sonora our SP would still look cheap if it was double it's current price given the Sonora potential deal that could be announce in a couple of weeks.

Back up power and grid balancing is a massive use case and benefit of EVs, Musk would rather sell a powerwall which one of the reasons why Tesla doesn’t offer it. Your car can make you money and perhaps partially pay for itself. Nissan have offered it for years of course.
It’s important because it makes EVs even cheaper to run/ own hence driving adoption.

I expect lithium investors will be rewarded in 2023.

Santa* Catarina - lol Merry Christmas

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2022-12-23/elon-musks-plans-to-build-a-tesla-mega-plant-in-mexico-come-into-focus.html
anta Catarina, a municipality with fewer than 310,000 inhabitants on the outskirts of the northern state of Nuevo León, is preparing to become the site of Tesla’s first mega-factory in Mexico. Almost two months after his first visit there, Elon Musk, Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the second richest man in the world, is getting closer to announcing his final decision on the location of a giant electric car assembly plant in the borderlands. According to local media, the factory’s construction would require an 800-hectare space, as well as investment of over US$10 billion at different stages of the process. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, initially the factory would produce vehicle parts; however, the brand is considering manufacturing its more economical cars there later.

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/biden-overseas-mining-funding

Reuters - Biden to travel to Mexico City to meet with leaders of Mexico, Canada on Jan 9-10

Probably when Biden is over there

Exactly Jimb2 LAC would make a lot of sense given Ganfeng own 11.11% of it.

The Sonora mine will surely be sold to a U.S. entity rather than stolen / expropriated from the Chinese. Can’t see that Winnie the Pooh would allow it.

Ganfeng should be sat on a healthy profit if they should choose to sell out given the lithium prices.

For sure it’s Ganfeng and our lithium in plan Sonora. Should find out the details soon enough. Maybe when the below happens in Jan.

Mexico City.- Andrés Manuel López Obrador, president of Mexico, pointed out that in the meeting with Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau, his counterparts from the United States and Canada, respectively, will have as its main objective the strengthening the development of North America, as well as the consolidation of bilateral relations.

López Obrador indicated that Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Foreign Affairs (SRE), will be in charge of specifying the agenda of this meeting, scheduled for January in our country.

He said that one of the main issues to be addressed is that of the Sonora Plan that promotes renewable energies in that entity, including the exploitation of lithium.

Like this you mean?
https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/sonora-build-lithium-battery-manufacturing-plant

“Model 2” production perhaps.

Mostly
1) Sentiment / Global Macro outlook
2) Decline of EMH: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EMH:LON?comparison=LON%3AKDNC&window=1Y
3) Lack of buyers on AIM generally https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AXX:INDEXFTSE?window=1Y
4) Iron ore price / pause of shipments
5) Self fulfilling prophecy (e.g fear of placings)

The good news is
1) Strong hints around "Plan Sonora" involving lithium from Bacanora (radio silence from management)
2) PFS Due and iron ore recovering
3) HAS Shares issue imminent
4) Evergreen Lithium listing due soon
5) Some EMH news could make a big difference

My reasoning is as follows, what we have paid for 3% of Amapa values our 30% at 15.6p per share - that is just for Amapa
EMH, HAS, Evergreen, Cash etc adds another 8.1 pence
Plus Sonora hopefully another 10p-15p minimum
so 23.7p plus Sonora puts us closer to 40p, so by my reckoning we are trading at about 22% of fair NAV which is a huge discount.
Take out Sonora (assume zero) and you are at 23.7p or 37% of NAV and Sonora as a free bonus if it comes off.
For sure we'd like our shares to go up but it seems like madness that anyone is selling at this price and the inclination is to buy more.
40-50p would probably be a fair sale price at the moment given the decline in EMH, Iron ore pricing and global economic uncertainties / higher interest rates.

If Ganfeng are smart they will have worked out that the cheapest way to get full control of Sonora at the moment is likely to make an offer for the entire company. Will they want the hassle when it will be quicker for them to make a deal, I suppose that’s dependent on how any negotiations go.