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Amapa has a lot of potential to be a leader in green steel given the hydro power and high grade iron ore

@jimb2 Not been keeping it up to date since observer disappeared mysteriously, I don't have the time these days so I just drop in here once a day usually.

36.2% ownership of Amapa with a post-tax NPV (10%) of US$1.97 billion = $713m (discount that how you like 20-40% for this stage of project) take the middle at 30% you get $214m current value, we have a $46m market cap so a 3-4x from here to get to any kind of reasonable value. Plus the Sonora legal claim which could be settled in the next year. Once cash flows have started from Azteca you'd expect a re-rate towards 30p IMO with a self funded DFS.

Iron ore price has been steadily climbing so if that holds the profits will be higher than anticipated and we should start to move in line with iron ore prices.

Assumptions and npv were all based on US$120/t 65% CFR China (currently $128) https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SGX-M65F1!/

This is what Gemini thinks

Current Trading: At 5.5p, Cadence is trading at a P/NAV of ~0.04x (essentially 4% of its asset value).

• Standard Target: Once a DFS is complete and production has started, junior miners often trade at 0.3x to 0.5x NAV.

• Projected Target Price: This would imply a share price of 35p to 59p.

Milestone 1 (Azteca Shipping): Analysts expect a move toward 14p–15p.

• Milestone 2 (DFS Completion): Historically, a bankable DFS could push the price toward 25p–30p as financing becomes more certain.

• Milestone 3 (Full 5.5Mtpa Production): If they reach full scale without massive dilution, the 50p+ territory becomes the mathematical "fair value."

Still here @Struv5 project now licensed should be worth about 20-30% of NPV I.e 25p+ per share.

Yeah. Massive positive development. Takes a lot of potential risks off the table.

First production and first shipment will be massive milestones. Congratulations to the team.

You'd assume now the in-country rulings are complete that the icsid can now progress (once a new rep is appointed)

Within the next 2-3 weeks is Kiran's stated expectation which still keeps things in line for production in July

Nice, I could definitely see an Indian partner stepping in, one of them visited last year remember.

A typical 90% discount for PFS stage is still a double from here, then another double to 80% discount is a 4x over the course of the next 6-12 months with licenses granted. Still a compelling hold.

Market well and truly asleep to what this means

Major milestone, congratulations to Kiran and the team. Great news for the staged plan.

Will surely grind higher should really be up 100% plus on the back of that

Congratulations to all involved, hopefully the share price reflects what a massive milestone this is on the road to a multi billion dollar asset.

Good news indeed, will be exciting to get this funding package over the line.

The timing is also spot on with the announcement of the funding

The same chap (Tupi owner) also liked Kiran's post on Amapa 2 months ago so adds to the credibility

Links were already posted Today 08:53

We are seeking an experienced General Manager (GM) to lead the complete operational restart and ongoing management of a 1 Mtpa iron ore mine in Amapá, Brazil.

This role requires a hands-on leader with a strong background in mining operations, maintenance, engineering, and logistics — capable of operating in a developing regional environment while maintaining world-class safety and performance standards.

Nah, you'll stay for the first shipment at least I'd have thought!

Https://www.cadenceminerals.com/investors/analyst-research/