Member Info for EV_Bull

They are linked here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/1031uiu/vox_markets_podcast_cadence_minerals_updates_on/

Entirely possible that Gangfeng do a deal that we aren't privy to and we get drag/tag along with it, details of which may not be known to Cadence yet.
It's going to be interesting to see what comes out of next weeks meetings for sure. Worth remembering that really nothing positive is priced in.
Regarding DFS, Dev are already in talks with strategic investors for funding and KM confirmed in interview and in PFS.

"The opportunity for DEV is to advance the Amapá Iron Ore Project to a Financial Investment Decision. This could be completed along with securing a strategic investor, offtake partner, separate listing, or a combination of these options. However, we recognise that there is still much work to complete at Amapá, which will ultimately deliver a Feasibility Study."

Doesn’t mean he can’t buy more in the coming days.
Others in the company can have inside information on Sonora. Ganfeng could also.

The bottom line is there is absolutely zero optimism priced in so any unexpectedly good news (incl. with Sonora next week in Mexico) and we will rocket. 16% of a $600bn resource is for sure more than our market cap suggests, oh and 30% of a ~$949m Iron Ore mine.
Whether gradual or all of a sudden this will re-rate one way or another.

It's clear to me that we're already talking to a "strategic investor" to fund the equity finance portion. That and a deal on Sonora would light the touch paper.

As referenced in the PFS
"The opportunity for DEV is to advance the Amapá Iron Ore Project to a Financial Investment Decision. This could be completed along with securing a strategic investor, offtake partner, separate listing, or a combination of these options."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/1031uiu/vox_markets_podcast_cadence_minerals_updates_on/

* Cadence uses a pure equity DCF. The WH Ireland DCF assumes a 70:30 debt:equity split and interest repayments at 8%

Exactly Zoom, I don't think it will be long before we hear something else, might explain the lack of interview and nothing added to the website yet. The PFS release to the public allows for some to be done (e.g with Glencore), more to come IMO.

- Brownfield restart a benefit: We believe the risk to be low for Amapá. The mine was
formerly operated and was at one time owned by Anglo American so metallurgical
characteristics are well understood and product quality has market acceptance.

- Infrastructure already exists: Being a past producer much of the infrastructure is in
place. The mine will have an open pit and process plant inland connected to the port
by 13km haul road to the rail head before a 194km rail transport to the port (Figure 2).
This does need capital expenditure spending, but much is already in place

-Operating Cost: a simple mine, upgrade and transport operation. PFS costs are
estimated at $36/dry tonne to get the iron ore on-board at the port with an estimate of
$29/t to ship the iron ore to China. At our long-term iron ore price this generates a cash
profit margin of $55/t (or $292m/yr – at full production).

Their £43m number equates to 25p plus 7p of other assets is 32p as a minimum, not accounting for the existing infrastructure ant Amapa which surely de-risks the project massively and then add Sonora.

Your “bit” is like 7p at least plus whatever you want to attribute to Sonora so Amapa only being valued at 3p which is around £5m and less than the $9m paid and the most recent transaction values it at 16p so you’re looking at only 20-25% of that and like 2% of the NPV.

8% no longer cuts it when the risk free rate is 4%+ .
10% is a sensible discount rate to apply for any project going forward I think. You could calculate NPV8 for a peer comparison though.

You buy now because it's dirt cheap and we could have a Sonora deal next week, or a deal on Amape e.g. off-take finance deal etc. even a non-binding MOU or exclusivity clause at this stage would show the market there is interest in the project.

Could be wrong... but I don't think that management will be placing at such a low valuation KM has a substantial shareholding also, perhaps they need to make clear the funding strategy to the market, e.g hopefully sell Sonora to get us to 49% of Amapa. Biden's visit is only a week away so may not have long to wait there.

30% of the $949m NPV is £238.66 million or £1.38 per share....

For the uninitiated buy the dip IMO on a market overreaction to higher capex in the PFS.
Strong Buy at 11p per share as the Amapa project alone is worth 16p (valuation based on the latest purchase price $3.3m for 3%) which values the mine at $110m and the 30% owned by KDNC at £27.5m.
Other Cadence holdings include:
£5.5m in European Metals Holdings (3.1p per share)
£5m in Hastings technology metals (3p per share) deal to complete soon
£1.8m Evergreen Lithium (1p per share)

Well let’s hope we can be up at least 100% tomorrow then if we get the PFS released.

Incredible price being achieved for DSO.

https://www.mining-technology.com/news/csn-mineracao-glencore-iron-ore/
Can you imagine what a similar deal would do for KDNC?! No wonder we want to take 49%. Amazed at how cheap we still are. Would expect the PFS to be the start of the re-rate.

Also featured on Bulletin board heroes at 8:20
https://youtu.be/jWteKfp6I88

There are people selling a 20p+ share for 10p and not enough buyers to bring the price towards the fair value at the moment. So I’m broadly generalising about the current market.