Member Info for EV_Bull

You can't generalise

HAS - master of own destiny -60% YTD

EG1 - master of own destiny +15% YTD (more because investment was at 20c)

EMH - JV partnered +16% YTD

IMO there is significant value to be unlocked, if Amapa was to IPO and Sonora comes to conclusion and there are no private projects remaining things get more interesting, there is room for argument that if below NAV at that point then there are some interesting options that need exploring to ensure shareholders get a return.

Amapa has huge upside IMO and the companies fortunes will be decided upon the success of realising it's fair value.

Sentiment being rock bottom is usually the best time to buy.

Posted a few weeks ago:

If you want a comparison on AIM look at Zanaga (ZIOC) market cap £50m (100% of the project £16m for 33%) which is in a very high risk jurisdiction (Republic of Congo)..

Zanaga Capital Cost Estimate from 2014:

for 12Mtpa initial operation -Total Stage One capital expenditures are estimated to be $2.2 billion, with $1.2 billion of direct costs and $1 billion of indirect costs and contingency.

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Amapa Capex is under $400m (just 18% of ZIOC's 2014 estimate) for roughly half the production rate so a much higher IRR for Amapa.

p.s according to Michigan State University:

Republic of the Congo scores an E (Very High Risk) and Brazil scores an A4

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/brazil/risk

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/republic-of-congo/risk

On Sonora - can't really help that AMLO got in to power and started nationalising it

On Amapa clearly behind the original schedule but a significant NPV and a third-party investor will help a lot

On the market in general, not exactly KM's fault that HAS dropped a lot and EMH too and that sentiment in the sector is in the toilet which have all been reflected in our SP

Evergreen was clearly a good move and could pay off (see Core)

My opinion is that it is best to see how Amapa plays out before pushing for any changes, if it generates a significant windfall then that should be returned to shareholders in some way e.g (buybacks or dividends) if we remain so far below NAV.

In the event that we are perpetually below nav then winding up the company and distributing the proceeds makes sense - this requires some activist holders but I feel now is not the time for that.

Sonora is the wild card now I personally feel there is a deal to be done there.

Get a big name involved with Amapa and it all changes IMO

That's right I'd expect talks to be at an advanced stage and the Japanese came over to Amapa to take a look not long ago.

Decent interview, bringing in a mine partner at the project level should be a major catalyst.

The October timeframe would fit in nicely to be able to sell down some EMH for repayment of the loan instead of diluting, I’d imagine that is the plan but would be good for management to confirm plan A / plan B.

Https://youtu.be/MalsmV4081w

Https://corporateconnect.com.au/project/european-metals-holdings/

I’d assume it can only be sold to repay the loan.

TLDR; This makes our stake worth more: "The net proceeds from Loan Facility will be used to continue the development of the Amapá Project, including optimisation studies on the processing route and environmental licensing."

"Price" is what you pay and "value" is what you get for your money. In my opinion there is a massive disconnect between the two. Our stake in Amapa is worth more than the entire market cap to a rational buyer and our 30% being worth $33m based on book value. The PFS cap-ex reduction improves the value proposition further the "bet" here is that the market will eventually agree, or management will be able to unlock the value for shareholders, that is what Kiran needs to be clear on for investors. Either an IPO or selling part of the stake, clearly it's going to be far more valuable to do this once the environmental licenses are in place and the DFS is complete as it de-risks the project further. This should then be worth far more to shareholders in the long run. If we can realise the value of Sonora or EMH to repay the loan facility then that is again best for shareholders, hopefully management can come out and be clear about the strategy and explain the strategy (incl loan repayment options). However if you are a buyer then at these prices the risk/reward looks good.

Https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/uk-housebuilders-greatland-gold-and-a-cadence-minerals-lithium-update-with-alan-green/ discussion from 17:10

Https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230601/pdf/05q7spyyz5vftb.pdf

Significant lithium anomalies up to several kilometres long

ANT being analysed news due very soon

Boom!

@Zoom Amapa is surely an open goal for the green steel industry, all of the ingredients are there in abundance.

Surely it’s the opposite, don’t want to sell down EMH because they expect it to go up.

I’m guessing he forgot his meds this morning.

Https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/13vmnmh/alan_green_talks_about_cadence_minerals_parkmead/

If you want a comparison on AIM look at Zanaga (ZIOC) market cap £50m (100% of the project £16m for 33%) which is in a very high risk jurisdiction (Republic of Congo)..

Zanaga Capital Cost Estimate from 2014:

for 12Mtpa initial operation -Total Stage One capital expenditures are estimated to be $2.2 billion, with $1.2 billion of direct costs and $1 billion of indirect costs and contingency.

----

Amapa Capex is under $400m (just 18% of ZIOC's 2014 estimate) for roughly half the production rate so a much higher IRR for Amapa.

p.s according to Michigan State University:

Republic of the Congo scores an E (Very High Risk) and Brazil scores an A4

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/brazil/risk

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/republic-of-congo/risk