Member Info for EV_Bull

The difference between overly optimistic and misleading is a blurry line, Elon on full self driving is a more notable one. I think it's easy in hindsight to say it was unrealistic. Had everything gone smoothly that was a 2.5 yr timeline and seems like it would have been physically possible to have first production in 2021.

The thing is if it takes another 2 years that doesn't mean it's worthless now and suddenly worth 100% in two years time hence the NPV is the net present value and is subject to uncertainty (e.g risk adjusted), investors would like more certainty and a strategic partner along with licensing granted would bring that and uplift the value considerably.

You know what "subject to" means right, there was some uncertainty there and the regulatory side took longer than expected. Regulations changed around dam licensing for example and the banks delayed things considerably.

Fingers crossed for some positive developments in the near future!

So don’t just moan, what is the answer? How does the value get realised? We probably have enough votes. I don’t think it’s the right time personally though. I think it’s best to wait for licensing and a deal on Amapa maybe even DFS and to see what Ganfeng/LitioMx do with Sonora.

KM has made it clear that the plan is to bring an investor in at the Dev level and that there is a data room set up for potential buyers to see all of the documentation etc.

I don't think things are as bleak as the "bears" would have you believe, a big name getting involved (e.g Glencore) as a cornerstone investor for Dev would give the market a true value and the confidence in the project being successful and we should see more of the NPV attributed in our SP.

Yes in theory it should, but short term it is mostly supply/demand driven so if holders are willing to sell far below NAV then that will be what determines the price.

EMH stake is worth 40% of our market Cap and Evergreen + Hastings another 30%.

The thesis here relies on management being able to unlock value at Amapa so it will be interesting to see what kind of deal will be struck for the stake in Dev and how that values it.

Closed up 18% in Aus

Getting closer....

June 13, 2023

HERMOSILLO, Sonora.- The LitioMx company has begun its installation in the city of Hermosillo , from where it will provide its services, as announced by Governor Alfonso Durazo Montaño.

During the weekly press conference, the head of the state Executive informed that progress has been made in the installation of these offices and that, once they are ready, the media will be invited to provide more details in this regard.

Durazo highlighted the importance of the LitioMx facility in the state , comparing it to the relevance of Pemex in the oil industry.

https://www.elimparcial.com/sonora/hermosillo/La-empresa-LitioMx-inicio-su-instalacion-en-Hermosillo-20230613-0022.html

See also....

23/05/2023

Silver Valley Metals Corp. announced advances in the negotiations with LitioMx to form a partnership that will allow the exploitation of lithium and potassium deposits in Zacatecas and San Luis Potosi.

https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/silver-valley-metals-advances-partnership-talks-litiomx

Rare earth prices are also down a fair bit which is not helping.

HAS took a A$150m loan at 9% + base interest to acquire 22% of NEO which is now down from CAD$15 to $8 that is the main reason for their decline.

EMH up 52% in a month, this is why taking a loan made more sense than selling down EMH.

Our holding has already gone from around £4m to £6m whereas the cost of the loan/warrants was only a fraction of that.

There is certainly value to be unlocked here, will a "Glencore" for example get involved at Amapa and how much of a boost will that provide. Why wouldn't they just offer to buy out KDNC instead of going in at the project level if that works out more cost effective. Will an activist fund get involved and push for it?

Well, I am expecting good news so we will see what happens.

The market is clearly not the best at the moment but ultimately we will see what deal can be done with the JV partner and the implications and effect valuation of that.

Which is why they got negative control over Amapa and Kiran is running the show over there. They have obviously decided Amapa has the biggest potential for gain compared to any other investment they had available.

So what project are you suggesting we get a majority of and how do we fund that?

Just one example and perhaps not too likely, Amapa could IPO via reverse takeover via KDNC become an operating company (which renames to the Amapa Iron Ore co.) and other shares could be distributed to KDNC shareholders or sold and the cash distributed (once lock up period expires).

I think you missed the point but (it's not a magic bullet to be 100% owner and if I'm not mistaken we do actually have "negative control" at Amapa) if we only own public companies we would trade below NAV I think that's a fair point, at which point then things can be done to change that situation. Better to have 30% of a viable project than 100% of a dud.